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Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

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Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#351

Post by albertgoeswoof »

frockington wrote: post #275
albertgoeswoof wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just sexism. Women should stay in the kitchen in your view I suppose.

Statistics aren't sexist. Looking for reasons to be outraged is counter prodctive to any discussion

> women and men competing against each other, instead of complementing their roles

How is this not sexist? You're saying that men and women have specific pre-defined roles in society (which you are defining). That's sexism at it's core, and leads to people saying that women should stay at home and men should go to work.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#352

Post by prirun »

"Large differences from the trend reflect the fact that only 19 percent of the variation in fertility changes can be predicted by home value changes."

I would think high university tuition and student loans also play a big part in decreasing disposable income to the point where college-educated couples are delaying starting a family or having fewer kids.

I think most people believe that a 4-year college education is mandatory for a decent life in the US these days (I don't agree), so it's rational for a couple to decide to have only 1 kid that they can afford to educate vs 2. Kids used to be able to pay for their own tuition with a part-time job. It may have taken 6 years to graduate, but it was doable. That is a lot harder / impossible now.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#353

Post by toasterlovin »

CalRobert wrote: post #348
toasterlovin wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that, after you decide to not have kids, time keeps up it's inexorable march. The earth has a carrying capacity for humans. We haven't hit it yet. But we will. This is the one absolute of life: species expand in population until there's no more niche left to occupy. So after you decide not to have children, other people will have children. Eventually, their descendents will take up the space in the earth…

Umm... at the risk of being dramatic.. In addition to worrying about the carbon footprint of another kid, I have a much bigger concern that * We will do nothing regarding climate change (seems likely) * The predictions for Business as Usual will have been too conservative (seems likely given that the Arctic is melting well ahead of schedule, and who knows how clathrates pan out) * Temps rise by a good 8C or so in the…

Let your kids worry about that. I know I, personally, would rather be alive and facing catastrophe than not be alive. And history is filled with examples of people who persevered through all kinds of calamity. We're a resourceful bunch. And it'll be easier for your children to face the future together than for your child to face it alone.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#354

Post by harambaebae69 »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #289
shados wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There IS a reason why rent in high cost areas are so, well, costly. If you go to NYC or SF and make 400k/year after tax, who cares if housing costs you 300k out of that. Especially if you're buying, in which case you can get part of your money back once you sell.

>There IS a reason why rent in high cost areas are so, well, costly. Yeah, it's the ratio of population to number of housing units.

Exactly, I'm glad someone else realizes this. I live in Boston. It's the 4th most expensive city in the USA [0]. It's most decidedly not the 4th best city to live in the USA. The fact that enough NIMBY attitudes and construction unions have jacked up the cost of housing doesn't suddenly make it paradise.

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/08091...

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#355

Post by mitchdoogle »

mkirklions wrote: post #281
wil421 wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea and the majority of people don’t make anywhere near 400k. You still need a huge low paid workforce to get things running. Firemen, police, teacher, retail and grocery workers, cleaners, bus drivers, plumbers and the like.

None of those positions are low paid outside of teenage retail/grocery workers. Fire/police/teacher/plumbers are very well paid. Cleaning is hit and miss, specialty cleaning is borderline extortion. Still, I know that most cleaning people get paid min 15$/hr. At 15$/hr, 30k/yr is plenty to live.

fire, police, teacher, and plumbers are all in the $40k - $60k range, at least in the US. I wouldn't call that well paid.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#356

Post by eli_gottlieb »

harambaebae69 wrote: post #354
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There IS a reason why rent in high cost areas are so, well, costly. Yeah, it's the ratio of population to number of housing units.

Exactly, I'm glad someone else realizes this. I live in Boston. It's the 4th most expensive city in the USA [0]. It's most decidedly not the 4th best city to live in the USA. The fact that enough NIMBY attitudes and construction unions have jacked up the cost of housing doesn't suddenly make it paradise. [0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/08091...

Wouldn't you know it! I live in Boston too. I think we're a good prototype case since, well, we're such a shithole in so many ways.

Every year the Globe runs a story on Massachusetts losing its young and poor population to the Sun Belt, but if you bring up building more apartment buildings, people yell that you should Go Back Where You Come From.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#357

Post by gideon_b »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #90

There's correlation here, but likely not causation. The real underlying cause in the drop in birth rates is an increase in working hours, an increase in commuting times, an increase in college tuition and health care costs, and also an increase in divorce rates. These days, even getting married is an expensive financial arrangement. Having kids is just another layer on that. Housing prices have increased because of c…

There is likely some degree of causation, though it would be difficult to measure.

As an anecdote, almost everyone I know moves to a less expensive area and buys a larger house when they start a family. Live downtown, have babies, move to the 'burbs. My parents did it, and I will probably do it too.

This type of situation muddies the data because we are contributing the trend but the housing price isn't changing whether we have babies. It only changes where we have babies. It's unclear whether the data shows that housing prices affect the brith rate or whether people just move to cheaper neighbourhoods when they want to have babies.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#358

Post by therealdrag0 »

CalRobert wrote: post #305
toasterlovin wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.

I'm conflicted because the carbon footprint of another kid is substantial. Then again, individual action is utterly meaningless. With ~8billion people it just doesn't matter what I do. Only large-scale action that brings about systemic changes matters. And hey, maybe one of my kids will be the one to help fix it! Then again, if people viewed 2 as a nominal max then we'd still be on the right path (a bit below replace…

Just checking in to say I sympathize. I don't have any kids yet, and was thinking about having none (not having a kid is as effective as being vegan and biking to work for the rest of your life...). But I'm worried about how my life would look with and without kids and how hard it would probably be to convince my future spouse to not have kids, etc. And in light of that I start feeling helpless and maybe it's worth just having a kid and enjoying my life because it's not my fault that so many people are fucking up the environment, driving trucks on hour long commutes, and having 5 kids. ¯\_(⊙︿⊙)_/¯

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#359

Post by therealdrag0 »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #277
toasterlovin wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.

Someone once told me: "The best gift you can give to an only child is a sibling. Shows them they aren't the center of the world."

My cousin is an only child and he turned out great and had a great childhood. I kinda envy the amount of family time and adventures they were able to go on. Part of it might be family culture, but seems like with one kid you can "do" a lot more, where as with 3 kids, doing things were often frustrating endeavors and just "maintaining" was more the norm.
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