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China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

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Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#351

I assume most of the HN readers are from USA and I can't believe my eyes what I'm reading here. People cheering a government's ban on what its citizens can do with their lawfully earned money. I worked for my money, I paid huge amounts of taxes on them. Why is it ok for somebody to come and tell me what I can and can't do with them, and then telling me it's in my best interest to not be allowed to invest them.

What I'm seeing is the classic regulation vs. non debate. What's missing is recognition of the historical precedent of regulating what people can/cannot do with their money in the USA and China's proposed plans to follow suit. Before the JOBS Act, for 70+ years the American Securities and Exchange Commission was very specific about what non-accredited investors could do with their money. [0] While China does not have…

> China sites terrorist financing and money laundering as problems with ICO'e

You can maliciously use your paper money right there in your leather wallet to do all sort of criminal activity, should we ban regular money too?

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First off, bubbles are a side effect of the money cycle which is created by central banking -- both the Dotcom and 2008 bubbles were created by the Fed selling money below cost, building a massive carry trade in, for instance, houses. Secondly, if there is a crash, the best thing to do is nothing. Let the people who invested poorly get wiped out-- it's better for the economy. (There are examples of this too- crashes…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1819 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1857 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1884 (bonus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1882-85 ) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1896

From the comment you're replying to:

> Let the people who invested poorly get wiped out-- it's better for the economy. (There are examples of this too - crashes that happened before the federal reserve which were much worse than the 1929 crash, but which are forgotten to history because they didn't create Great Depressions

Of course there were panics and corrections before the federal system - as rothbardrand mentioned, they didn't create events as bad as the depression.

The "bonus" you mentioned lasts 3 years, where as the great depression: "started in 1929 and lasted until 1941" (src: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression). Note: "The Depression of 1882-85 was not inaugurated by financial disaster or mass panic, but was rather an economic downturn that came about through a protracted and gradual process".

Compare that to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929 and tell me where the line between "market corrections" / "downturns" and "financial disaster" / "mass panic".

But showing evidence is needless: the federal reserve _necessarily_ aggravates the business cycle by promoting mal-investment. This was Murray Rothbard's mentor Ludwig von Mises' great work "Human Action" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Action), specifically Chapter XX section 8, "The Monetary or Circulation Credit Theory of the Trade Cycle" - (full text is online here: https://mises.org/library/human-action-0/html/pp/818). One of the key tenants of Austrian economics and in particular the work of von Mises is that it is deductive from pure logic, rather than from experimental or statistical observations. Austrian economics is more akin to biology than psychology.

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any market given the space to develop becomes highly vetted. Somalia's during its civil war didn't work because there was no central authority providing security and preventing raiders from pillaging markets, so markets didn't have the opportunity to become highly developed. There is no chance that supermarket shelves would be stocked with toxic/fraudulent food products in our world of secure private property rights,…

I recommend that you realise your arguments for a totally free market are exactly as useful as the arguments for a state controlled economy. It doesn't work because people will always screw each other over. This is the reason communism is not viable, and it is the reason libertarianism is not viable either. I hope you realise that todays "strict" food safety laws were born out of a world where people did exactly what…

>>I recommend that you realise your arguments for a totally free market are exactly as useful as the arguments for a state controlled economy. It doesn't work because people will always screw each other over. This is the reason communism is not viable, and it is the reason libertarianism is not viable either.

I believe people will screw each other over no matter what system you use. In a regulated economy people will screw other people by lobbying for regulations that protect their industry from competition. In other words, centralized control via regulatory guardrails doesn't preclude exploitation: look at the opioid epidemic for example. It can in large part be traced back to doctors prescribing opioids as a result of pharmaceutical marketing. The industry is highly regulated and thus profitable for the pharmaceutical giants. The Drug War has been going on for a hundred years and drug abuse is worse now that it's ever been. I doubt that we would be any worse off in terms of drug abuse with a free market in drugs, and I'm sure there would be more competition and lower costs for drugs.

>>I hope you realise that todays "strict" food safety laws were born out of a world where people did exactly what you say they wouldn't. They cut bread with sawdust to make money. They skimped on hygiene. They advertised other meats than they used etc etc etc. Today these things have real consequences. You're saying we should just let people do that? I cannot fathom what drives you to that position.

People do that today as well. With a mandatory safety standard, you can probably raise quality in the short term, but there is a trade-off, in increasing costs and reducing innovation.

Regarding cost: it's not a given that reducing the incidence of food fraud is always worth the increase in food costs. I know it's not a intuitive idea, but sometimes the public welfare effect of increasing costs outweighs the public welfare effects of increasing quality. In a free market people will make a decision on what trade-off is best for them based on their own circumstance. Because it really does depend on the circumstances. Someone who values food safety more than low prices can always opt to buy a reputable label with a strong reputation for food safety. But for others, the lower cost of less reputable brands is more important for them than minimizing the risk of contracting foodborne illnesses or ingesting harmful additives.

With regard to innovation, regulation harms it because it replaces diversity with uniformity. Imagine a thousand food producers, each producing food of varying quality. With regulations, you get them all to use the same food safety procedures. This might mean that 70% of them raise their standards, but it also means the 10% creating innovative ways to maintain high quality standards at lower costs will stop exploring these avenues.

A modern day example would be how Uber found a more cost-effective way of assuring a high quality taxi service with its rating system than the regulatory approach of the medallion system that municipalities use. Taxi regulations, by imposing uniformity in procedures (the licensing process) on the taxi sector, caused the procedures used by taxi companies to stagnate and not evolve for decades. The quality difference between Uber and the regulated taxi services is night and day.

One other point I'd add is that the effect of reducing the rate of innovation is compounding. Over the long run, of 50-100 years, society will lose out immensely from trading recurring increases in innovation from a competitive free market for a one-time boost in quality from imposing a uniform standard for quality assurance.

The greatest force for improved quality and increased affordability is, in the long run, competition between entities free to innovate without the artificial constraint of mandates on their procedures.

Another reason to oppose regulations against the free market is that regulations are subject to being shaped by special interests, who may deliberately push for them to be onerous to stamp out smaller competitors. Many small farmers blame food production regulations for the demise of their sector and the growing dominance of industrial farming.

>>So there was no central authority and therefore the system failed. Isn't a weaker central authority what you want?

Not categorically. I want a strong authority maintaining security and the right to freely contract, but I want that authority to not use its power to infringe upon those same contracting rights.

>Anyway, this discussion is pointless if you cannot see that total free market idealism is as extreme as pure communism and equally flawed. The optimum is somewhere in the middle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#354
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring to this: >>It is impossible to be serious in a space dominated by liars as they will outcompete you every time. And making the point that the space will be dominated by the competent and honest in the long run if left to its own devices. My comment was explaining why I believe that would be the long-term outcome.

It may, or it may collapse under the weight of the less scrupulous.

The cryptocurrency market is incredibly resilient. I've been involved in it for years and seen that even after the worst crises, it comes back stronger. Absent centralizing regulations, eventually all of the industries created by the new use-cases it enables will mature, with innovative technological solutions and much higher levels of consumer awareness, which is a much more robust outcome than the regulatory one that would devolve into a closed Old Boys/Girls club like the traditional financial sector.

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#355

Why don't rich people need protection? Here's the answer: this is their protection. It reduces their competition. Seriously, these securities rules keep people like me from investing in AirBnB and Uber (two that I caught very early and wanted into)... but we can all go to Vegas and lose $100k in a single weekend. But putting $10k into Uber's seed round is somehow a crime I need to be protected from? Truth of the matt…

[deleted]

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#356
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The principle is pretty simple, if it's two consenting adults doing something that does not impact a third person rights, they should be allowed to do it. So I would be okay with laws about how money is earned, if there's a third person being impacted (pollution, for example), and i am okay with laws about how money is spent if there's a third person being impacted (idk, hiring a assassin) Of course when one of the t…

Do you agree that certain activities that don't directly impact specific individuals can introduce risk for other people in general? If so, how do you feel about laws designed to limit your ability to take part in those activities?

I'm not sure if i follow you.

But i will try to answer the best i can.

When i go to the bank, i may be participating in bank run, and i may the reason the bank collapses, and then the economy. My action of going to the bank does not usually causes that. But if you attempt to ban me from going to the bank because i may cause a bank collapse, it will certainly cause more harm then good.

And that's how we should look at the problem. The reason i have a principle that people should not interfere with my freedom to do as i chose (as long as i don't harm others), is because i believe that it will provide the best outcome possible, not the other way around.

That does not mean that there's no law that prevents two people of making a voluntary transaction that can give a better outcome than everything open. But it's just impossible to really know. The same reason your questions are hard to answer, if i disregard the principle, it will be hard to make such laws. So someone has to decide what becomes law, and what does not, and when that happens, those law will be imperfect, and you will have people who will benefit from some laws, and some who will be harmed. People harmed will not care so much for this imperfect and unfair system, and might as well ignore such (or other laws). People will also have incentives to make such laws, as they can benefit from it.

And you will never get a general agreement that such law will really do more harm than good, because people will have different views of that, rightly so. The law that prevents me from investing, may protect me from a bad decision, but will also prevent me from a good one. But as i am able to decide to get out of my house every day, and risk losing my life on a car accident, i should be able to decide what to do with what is mine. Even if some protection does look nice on paper, i do not believe i need to be protect from myself in a way that will limit my choices. If someone wants their choices be limited, just make it optional, and I will be able to decide if the protection is good or not. I doubt most people will really care about what people in the government think it is the right choice.

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1819 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1857 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1884 (bonus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1882-85 ) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1896

From the comment you're replying to: > Let the people who invested poorly get wiped out-- it's better for the economy. (There are examples of this too - crashes that happened before the federal reserve which were much worse than the 1929 crash, but which are forgotten to history because they didn't create Great Depressions Of course there were panics and corrections before the federal system - as rothbardrand mention…

The Panic of 1837 was a financial crisis in the United States that touched off a major recession that lasted until 1843---6 years.

The Panic of 1873 was a financial crisis that triggered a depression in Europe and North America that lasted from 1873 until 1879 (1897 (!) in Britain)---6 years.

The 1882-1885 depression included a year when "an estimated 5% of all American factories and mines completely shuttered during the 12 months running from July 1, 1884, to July 1, 1885".

The panic of 1893 included a depression that extended to 1897, a couple of years with 12-14% unemployment, with peaks somewhere around 17-19% and 25% in Pennsylvania, 35% in New York, and 43% in Michigan, and included the panic of 1896.

Keep in mind two things: these occurred in the 19th century, when the United States was largely, perhaps almost completely an agrarian country, and that when banks fail (a common occurrence in many of these), you don't get your money back out.

The Great Depression is called that because it was the biggest, but it was hardly a completely new and unique thing.

[Now, as to Austrian economics, if "it is deductive from pure logic, rather than from experimental or statistical observations", I would think it had more in common with mathematics than either biology or psychology. Or perhaps alchemy.]

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#358

This was a needed move. Too many scamcoins are appearing and selling their overpriced offerings. It's like Kickstarter, but for larger sums of money and less accountability if things don't materialise. We are heading for a pretty serious ICO bubble if ICO's can continue to operate like they are and I can only hope that the USA follows suit next. The crypto markets right now are in a free fall as a result of the panic…

> This was a needed move. > We are entering a brave new world with cryptocoins as they reach the mainstream. You can't have both. decide

I'm confused. They both relate to each other, don't they? For crypto to reach and be accepted by the mainstream, people need to know that everything is being done to prevent people from being scammed. It's surprisingly easy to fork an existing cryptocurrency and create your own. Anyone could create a new coin in a couple of hours, most of the time spent on the marketing site. For crypto to be accepted beyond speculators and Twitter investors, there needs to be protections in place, just like investing in the stock market is regulated somewhat.

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#359
post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, I had this conversation with someone on Twitter and it was like they had no clue this was an option. A state power isn't going to let some random currency come in and compete with their sovereign currency rules.

And they will stop people from making bitcoin transactions how, exactly? It's a bit silly to come in and dismissively say "the state will regulate it anyway" when the whole point of the technology is that it technologically prevents central actors (like a state) from interfering. It's a bit like saying "nah, the MPAA and RIAA will shut down filesharing." Nope. They shut down Napster (which was centralized), but BitTo…

And they will stop people from making bitcoin transactions how, exactly?

By making convertibility to Yuan illegal. This is trivially easy to do and enforce, making the entire Bitcoin marketplace a black market for any transactions on the mainland. So your life would get real hard real quick the moment you try to turn Bitcoin into Yuan. Oh, that's ok you'll just do ALL your transactions with bitcoin. Ok so any shop owner that makes it even slightly known that they take bitcoin will be arrested. Too easy.

Forget big C communist ideology at the state level, you mess with provinces and their ability to collect money and you'll go down hard fast.

Re: China's Central Bank Bans ICOs

#360
post #99
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually I think such bold decisions can only be made by a government that is not encumbered with lobbies and business interests.

what makes you think china's institutions aren't?

Oppressive regimes are usually effective at making decisions that hurt many individuals (even unfairly) for the (supposed?) benefit of the collective.
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