Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators • Hacker News Board

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#341

Post by lokar » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC

throwaway2037 wrote: post #187

lokar wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The court ruling was a good one, and anticipated. The federal government can either allow all gambling, or ban it all. They can’t pick and choose states where it may be allowed.

Before online gambling went wild in the US, most brick and mortal gambling was one of three sources: (1) Nevada (Las Vegas, etc.), (2) Atlantic City, New Jersey, (3) Native American tribes. There were also some other odd locations, like river boat gambling on the Mississippi River or "cardrooms" in California. As a result, most Americans did not live close to a casino. Now, you can do it from your smartphone.

And federal law said states other than Nevada and New Jersey had to ban gambling. The court said they can’t do that. They could ban gambling nationwide in federal law.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#342

Post by lxgr » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC

brador wrote: post #212

weird-eye-issue wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily, I mean if you buy a in-game item or currency that wouldn't be a cash advance so with this they could just say you bought $20 worth of credits and since you're buying credits that could be considered a good.

That would be purchasing a license (service). Gambling is always classed as a cash advance. The gift cards trick has been tapped and closed, the credit companies figured it out decades ago.

> Gambling is always classed as a cash advance.

Many banks do, but there's no hard rule of the sort you're implying.

> The gift cards trick has been tapped and closed, the credit companies figured it out decades ago.

What do you mean? Buying gift cards using credit cards is absolutely possible.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#343

Post by RugnirViking » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

derwiki wrote: post #328

RugnirViking wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you tried to turn crypto into cash money in a real bank account? have you tried to do it with large amounts? would you describe that process as easy?

It depends on what you mean by “large amounts,” but many “large amount” transactions trigger flags at the bank

yes. For crypto platforms specfically, those "large amounts" can be pathetically small. Ive had no end of trouble even with amounts as low as $50 getting my card blocked until I call the bank

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#344

Post by RugnirViking » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC

trumpdong wrote: post #302

RugnirViking wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

only lawyers care what the laws say. I care about what's right and good and leads to prosperity for people I care about (which is to a greater or lesser extent everyone) It's the lawyers job to make the laws align with some version of the above, and many of them, like most other people with power in society, are doing a willfully terrible job of it

This is not correct. It's a politician's job to make them selfrich by any means necessary. It's a lawyer's job to make you pay for as many hours as possible.

correct - "a" lawyer. a single lawyer is but a cog in the machine. Lawyers as a whole, as an institution, however are at least ostensibly supposed to exist for some benefit to society. They, like other institutions, must act to prevent principal agent problems. And like other institutions, they are failing dramatically

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#345

Post by kleene_op » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC

everdrive wrote: post #307

cj wrote: post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

>it showed a promo “would you like to split this payment over 12 month?” and seemingly was only available for that one transaction. So I could have deposited $1000 via CC into Kalshi and paid it back $83/mo over 12 months. "Would you like to make decisions that are bad for you?" The future is indeed wild, and personal weakness is for sale. This isn't meant as an attack on you, but a lot of people will not be able to…

> So I could have deposited $1000 via CC into Kalshi and paid it back $83/mo over 12 months

Are you sure those are the correct figures? That's a 4$ win in your favor if you don't use any of the deposited money and cash it back one year later.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#346

Post by TFNA » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:39 PM UTC

picture wrote: post #321

karel-3d wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does China have online gambling banned? I don't know

Yes all forms of gambling, except certain government sanctioned lotteries, are illegal and criminally prosecuted

Except in Macau, where casinos remain permitted. Chinese can also cross to Cambodia, where Chinese casino tourism is probably the bulk of the country’s economy.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#347

Post by weird-eye-issue » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC

Dilettante_ wrote: post #340

weird-eye-issue wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but that level of confidence is what would also eventually wipe you out because gamblers are not necessarily known for proper risk management. You could win 10 bets in a row but then it would only take one bet that you had 100% conviction on for you to lose and you get wiped out

You're sneaking in a prior assumption that people will act stupidly, and then make the argument "Well since they act stupidly they will have bad outcomes". That's like me claiming "Your startup is gonna fail, I can tell, because you'd need to be able to read and write to make it in business!"(sneaking in the prior assumption that the person in question is not in fact able to read or write) Your strategic consideratio…

Well my assumption that gamblers will do something stupid is not that far flung.

And regarding your comment about investment literacy yes I agree with you but just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#348

Post by mortsnort » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 3:09 PM UTC

Dilettante_ wrote: post #199

WalterBright wrote: post #123

The WSJ ran an earlier article stating that unless you have access to a lot of data, computing power, and statisticians, you're going to lose on those bets.

You don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".

The betting topic is only a part of the equation. Should you bet $100 to win $5 on the Steamdeck price? Should you sell your bet before the Steamdeck even comes out?

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#349

Post by weird-eye-issue » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

dotancohen wrote: post #316

weird-eye-issue wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if the site allows you to purchase a digital asset such as a CS2 skin which you can then immediately sell back to them at the same price you to get credits in your account to gamble?

That's fraud.

I'm trying to understand which part exactly is fraud? If this site offered a legitimate marketplace for these items as well as gambling then in certain jurisdictions of course that could be illegal (due to the gambling aspect) but where does the fraud come in exactly?

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#350

Post by minraws » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC

Saline9515 wrote: post #325

minraws wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true, polymarket and kalshi have a lot of system bets, basically bets where the other side is the market, and further they take a cut from the money gambled. There are other things as well, like they control which side wins, so they can leverage trade or even swing trade internally with a few bot accounts, not saying that they do but I don't see a ToC that says they can't.

Polymarket can market-make, but so can you (i.e be on the both sides of the order book). You can't do that in a casino for instance. They don't control which side wins (UMA voters do). You should read up about prediction markets and in general sport gambling. Sport gambling platforms with a "house" usually derive their odds from pvp markets. Polymarket is similar to a classic order book market.

1. Kalshi doesn't use UMA. 2. Yeah spend more money to get UMA votes to decide controversial decisions. That's how polymarket works.

I have a lot of experience with similar systems, that's what we call rigging the election.

Imagine a handful of anonymous UMA wallets dominate Polymarket’s contested resolutions, and reporters have linked some deciding wallets to positions in the very markets they judged.

:But you don't have to it happens way too often and there is no oversight against it: https://www.wsj.com/finance/polymarket-bet-disputes-fb1b8c6a https://www.barrons.com/articles/polymarket-prediction-marke...

I hope we can all agree to read this stuff.

> Polymarket can market-make, but so can you (i.e be on the both sides of the order book). You can't do that in a casino for instance.

That's like saying Elon can be a trillionaire, but so can you, I mean sure, anyone can, but how lucky do you think you have to be for your market to actually get any meaningful traction and for you to make any money. And even when you do, you are basically suggesting you should insider trade or rig bets to make money... I am certain that might be a flex for some but man I don't think that's the dunk you were looking for.

At the end the only folks making money are the markets, but who am I to stop the blind. Best of luck, hopefully you don't regret it. I only hope people don't get addicted or robbed by this stuff, rich people can have their own fun I don't really care.