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The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

simonwillison.net

341–350 of 631 posts

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#341

Last 6 months is humanity losing control of LLMs. - Memory market cornering which mitigated the adoption of local AI despite great open model being released. - Fast penetration of IP exfiltrating tools in companies world-wide. - Developers producing more code that they can read. - Autonomous agents killing Open Source by siphoning the attention economy - Autonomous agents destroyed online communities (including HN) -…

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Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#342

Last 6 months is humanity losing control of LLMs. - Memory market cornering which mitigated the adoption of local AI despite great open model being released. - Fast penetration of IP exfiltrating tools in companies world-wide. - Developers producing more code that they can read. - Autonomous agents killing Open Source by siphoning the attention economy - Autonomous agents destroyed online communities (including HN) -…

If you only read bad news (i.e. mass news these days since that sells better) this will be the picture. But I have personally seen some insane stuff happen in biotech. Like, I can't believe we're lucky enough to possibly live our life in this kind of future. We already have actual therepeutics developed using Alphafold being tested right now in real clinical trials, but the next generation of stuff that will go into…

Nothing ever happens.

See you in 10-30 years when people are still dying of the same shit as today like oesophageal cancer and glioblastoma.

Maybe in the next century but by that time you and me both will be under the ground, and no, Amodei's doubling of human lifespan simply won't happen.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#343

> The coding agents got really good It's since november 2025, the so called "inflection point", that I'm still wondering for who coding agents become "really good". All I observe they got better at tool call and answering questions about big codebases, especially if the question has a vague pattern to search, and they're superuseful for that! For generating production code even with a lot of steering and baby sitting…

> It's since november 2025, the so called "inflection point", that I'm still wondering for who coding agents become "really good". The answer is "for lots of people, but not you". You're doing a vague impression of being fair and even-handed, arguing for non-polarization, but underlying everything you're saying is an obvious attitude of poralizing superiority: That _your_ personal experience with AI is the real truth…

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Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#344

I wonder how much the 'inflection point' is a thing vs marketing. I'm sure the models got somewhat better, but even now when I'm trying to 'vibe code' a game with the latest models (combination of Codex w/ gpt5.5 and gpt5.3-codex), they really do struggle. They definitely get something barebones up and running, but it's far from a fully fledged application.

Counterpoint, I'm also vibecoding a game, and even before doing the "proper" setup (a good AGENTS.md, skills people have published for my chosen game engine, Godot), mechanically, the game was pretty spot on. It looked boring, so I used Claude Design to create a few mockups to choose from, chose the one I liked the most, and told Claude Code to redo the game UI with it.

There have been plenty of small issues like tables not having the columns aligned, or the game menu being a bit offset, or one graph being a placeholder instad of connected to the actual value. And of course I've had to instruct it on all the flavour I want.

But honestly, for a simulation strategy game, especially without doing the "proper" setup from the start, it's been _very_ good.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#345
top model changes every other month between Claude, GPT and gemini. but its dominated by GPT overall. Claude has taken lead in coding task but GPT 5.5 has come stronger. gemini was good in between. but its dominated by GPT 5.5 and claude overall. Coding is the area where disruption is hardest. Opencalw early this year was a major breakthrough in agentic AI and it is still making noise and becoming more mature and going toward enterprise. Agentic coding is still in adoption phase where teams are trying it , trying to make sense out of it, running it and not beleving it and eventually it is discussion point over tea. it is still in adoption phase but needle has moved from being alient to being something real which team started discussing and using it like a champ.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all it just underlines how shitty the web has become, second If that's your work I'd chase a career path where Claude can't one-shot this kind of dumb stuff

Curious, what's the career path you'd chase? Can you give examples of some work that you think Claude will never be able to one-shot?

Oddly enough switched from software to selling retro games online.

Made ridiculous bank during 2019-2023, lost money 2024-2025 (I wasn't doing proper accounting at that stage, so it took a while to really internalise that the market wasn't insane anymore), looks like we'll make a decent-ish profit in 2025-2026 after pivoting the business model. Some regrets but it's possible staying in software could have been just as turbulent.

Funnily enough we're finally at the stage where I can launching my SaaS side-hustle which I've been sitting on for the past year and a half, so that could end up back in software again soon.

I would never say never, since I don't know what Claude would look like in 5 years' time, but there's plenty it can't do at the moment.

To give a concrete example, I don't let it make sweeping changes to the main "business logic" of my SaaS. Not because it's necessarily wrong but because I can't easily verify it. But I'll let it rip on peripheral stuff, or co-work with it.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#347
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The polarization comes from the very disparate coding experiences and output quality that different people find when using these tools. For example, I've had the opposite experience of yours, generating very high quality work using Claude (such as https://github.com/kstenerud/yoloai ). Just in dealing with all the bugs and idiosyncrasies in the technologies I'm using, the agent has been a godsend in discovering and c…

While reading this thread, I literally just caught an agent putting in the following CSS selector in a rule: > .row > div > div, .alert This is fairly simple CSS, not multi-threaded systems development. A bar low enough that you could trip over it. I catch this kind of stuff all the time (literally every run), but only because I read every line. Most of it wouldn't be the end of the world for any particular task, but…

I haven't done any CSS/HTML/JS level work with Claude yet. I've mainly been using it for systems level stuff.

LLMs have traditionally had problems with visual rendering (the good ol' pelican on the bicycle test). I wonder if this is more of the same?

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#348
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While reading this thread, I literally just caught an agent putting in the following CSS selector in a rule: > .row > div > div, .alert This is fairly simple CSS, not multi-threaded systems development. A bar low enough that you could trip over it. I catch this kind of stuff all the time (literally every run), but only because I read every line. Most of it wouldn't be the end of the world for any particular task, but…

I haven't done any CSS/HTML/JS level work with Claude yet. I've mainly been using it for systems level stuff. LLMs have traditionally had problems with visual rendering (the good ol' pelican on the bicycle test). I wonder if this is more of the same?

In this case, the visual display was fine -- I was instructing it to fix bad code from a previous round that happened to deliver the right results.

Like I said, this is just an example that happens to be CSS. I see this stuff daily, if not hourly.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#350

I asked Gemini for a video of 'pelican riding a unicycle in hyde park' - I was blown away by the output: https://gemini.google.com/share/55e250c99693

Graphically perfect, but content-wise nonsense. The pelican's center of gravity is clearly behind the wheel. It needs to be above or very slightly ahead of the wheel.
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