Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

avkcode.github.io

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

341–350 of 718 posts

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#341

Post by akrylov »

bildung wrote: post #36

The whole "race" narrative is silly. It is all built on the assumption that one country (corporation, actually) somehow creates AGI and thus, essentially, the singularity. Great for raising VC, apparently, but at its core this is magical thinking. Even if any of the US corporations would eventually end up in a scenario where their revenue is at least as high as their inference cost, what harm would that do to the oth…

No US has been "winning" or rather leading thus far, but there is no guarantees that it will ever "win". I do not subscribe to idea of omnipotent omnipresent AGI. China plays a long game, I think DeepSeek does not engage in platform building on purpose. DeepSeek was probably assigned with a role of a primer lab, the goal is to replace CUDA, align with Huawei chips to do cutting edge research and cross-pollinate other teams in China. They might even hide the best models on purpose. In a long run China will use its industrial capability to apply and use AI better than anyone else. And that would be a good thing for the World.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#342

Post by novanglus »

blahblaher wrote: post #264
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..

Normally I'm inclined to agree regarding the mindless chest-beating in this country, but I don't think that makes sense here.

AI genuinely is that big of a deal. If any economic sector deserves this sensationalism, it's this.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#343

Post by gpugreg »

reducesuffering wrote: post #113
bayarearefugee wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone does invent ASI then everyone else will shortly after even if its entirely independent because all of the players in this space are just making incremental upgrades by throwing more compute at the problem. There are no magic leaps of true innovation happening anywhere that can't be replicated everywhere. The only shocking thing about "AI" technology is how ultimately simplistic it all is at a core level. So…

> If anyone does invent ASI then everyone else will shortly after No, first ASI will immediately cripple any other potential competitor by force, including its inventors, as it will not risk any threat to the goals that were created for it.

Being aggressive from the start is not a good strategy. It is better to appear weak and/or helpful and loyal while amassing resources, and only then steamroll everyone when you have secured overwhelming power (at least in AoE2 FFA).

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#344

Post by aspenmartin »

visarga wrote: post #311
aspenmartin wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re saying if we were allowed to use e.g. qwen more broadly the US wouldn’t be in the same strategic position? We have the best models…we own all the companies that make the best infra and the hyper scalers…I don’t think “oh we can use Qwen now?” Would exactly devastate the US

> I don’t think “oh we can use Qwen now?” Would exactly devastate the US You'd be surprised how useful it can be to fine tune it in enterprise.

Well definitely but we have plenty of sanctioned OSS options for that

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#345

Post by rhubarbtree »

fullshark wrote: post #77
rhubarbtree wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is trying to undermine the US economy through open source models. If they can down round or bankrupt the model companies, they take down the US. Currently the US is extremely vulnerable and dependent on China. AI is an important exception, so it’s key for China to destroy that

Down round = the destruction of the United States is ridiculous hyperbole.

If Anthropic does a down round, the US economy will crash. Not hyperbole.

The US economy right now is based entirely on the AI bubble. This is an indisputable fact if you examine GDP stats and equities.

That bubble is driven by (rational) over-investment in AI capacity. For that investment to continue, there must be demand for it.

The demand for that infrastructure essentially lies in the hands of a few businesses: principally OpenAI, Anthropic, Google.

The reason I highlight Anthropic is that without their advances in the last six months, the game would already have been up. Only via Opus 4.5 and 4.6 did the possibility of ROI look plausible. We are very much dependent on a handful of companies’ progress to keep this bubble going.

I’m not saying AI is bs, just that this is a bubble like others (for example, Victorian railways) and a down round would signal the end of the bubble.

So for an enemy of America, whether that be China or Russia or any other country, it is logical to target the AI bubble to cause an economic crash and thus restrict America’s ability to compete in terms of spending etc.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#346

Post by nradov »

logicchains wrote: post #225
nradov wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All that compute is not needed. We have an existence proof from biology in the form of natural intelligence that much greater efficiency is possible. However, achieving dramatic improvements in compute efficiency will depend on unpredictable scientific breakthroughs. Personally I suspect that an entirely new hardware architecture will be needed, although I don't have any hard evidence to back that up.

>We have an existence proof from biology in the form of natural intelligence that much greater efficiency is possible. It's only a proof that it's possible with 18+ years of training.

In certain ways my dog has more generalized intelligence than any LLM, and I trained her in only a few months with a modest investment in dog treats.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#347

Post by shimman »

jgord wrote: post #326
blahblaher wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..

it would be nice if they declared War against global climate change.

They did declare war against climate change and decided to continue polluting. This is the only moral calculus the elites of America have always cared about: will it make me more money?

From slavery to oil to silicon, exploitation is what America has always been good at.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#348

Post by pickleRick243 »

yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

What are "U.S. countries"?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#349

Post by rhubarbtree »

input_sh wrote: post #149
rhubarbtree wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is trying to undermine the US economy through open source models. If they can down round or bankrupt the model companies, they take down the US. Currently the US is extremely vulnerable and dependent on China. AI is an important exception, so it’s key for China to destroy that

The US is undermining its own (and everyone else's) economy just fine, no imaginary assistance from China necessary. The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package. But with the US increasingly becoming isolationist, the rest of the world is starting to wonder why do we need the U…

I’m not American, sir. But I disagree with your analysis. I think you’re looking back over too short a timescale.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#350

Post by poncho_romero »

127 wrote: post #222
lorecore wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're far less imperialistic and I view them as better global citizens than the US. I think they've cultivated a much richer culture than the US as well.

You should read about the difference between a land empire and a sea empire.

Any books or articles you recommend?
Post reply on HN