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OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

theguardian.com

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Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer your question: talking to a human. Medicine is so much more than "knowledge, experience, and pattern matching", as any patient ever can attest to. Why is it so hard for some people to understand that humans need other humans and human problems can't be solved with technology?

I would personally vastly, vastly prefer to go to a robot doctor, who diagnoses, treats and nurses me. What exactly do I need from a human here? Except of course being the one making the system.

Good luck to you if the prompt is written by health insurance.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could say the same about the Ai. Ai is incredibly well suited for extracting knowledge through chats. In this regard. A doctor also just have 15 minutes for an interview. An Ai can be with the patient for days leading up to a consultation. So if we remove this "handicap" this Ai will likely really start to win.

It’s the ER. People aren’t always in a position to “chat” when they go there.

You think current ER people work in complete silence? No words uttered?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#343
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just get 1M doctors to wear body cams for a year. Now you have a model that has thousands of times your experience with patients, encyclopedic knowledge of every ailment including ones that never present in your geography, read all the latest papers, etc.. I don't understand how you think this doesn't win vs a human doctor.

In healthcare, HIPAA/GDPR equivalent would block this. Let's be realistic in our discussion; this is not the same as google buying up a library worth of books, scanning and destroying them

There are other countries, and the patients in them all have similar data

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just get 1M doctors to wear body cams for a year. Now you have a model that has thousands of times your experience with patients, encyclopedic knowledge of every ailment including ones that never present in your geography, read all the latest papers, etc.. I don't understand how you think this doesn't win vs a human doctor.

This wouldn't solve the problem of diagnostic standards. Let's say you are a pediatrician and want to predict which kids with bronchiolitis will develop respiratory failure and need the ICU versus the ones who can go home. How do you determine from the body cams which kids had bronchiolitis in the first place? Bronchiolitis is a clinical diagnosis with symptoms that overlap with other respiratory illnesses such as as…

you would have footage of the doctors diagnosing them. I don't understand what you're asking. The body cams have microphones too in case that wasn't clear.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#345

It is easy to overinterpret this based on the headline, the doctors were actually at a slight disadvantage. This isn't how they normally work, this is a little more like a med school pop quiz: An AI and a pair of human doctors were each given the same standard electronic health record to read – typically including vital sign data, demographic information and a few sentences from a nurse about why the patient was ther…

Also, this is not how ER doctors work? They are not trained for this, nor does it reflect their day-to-day performance. If they would work like this, perhaps they would know a bit more about the nurse writing down those notes, and the kinds of things that particular nurse is likely to miss or overemphasize - just as an example.

The article gives a neat example: In one case in the Harvard study, a patient presented with a blood clot to the lungs and worsening symptoms. Human doctors thought the anti-coagulants were failing, but the AI noticed something the humans did not: the patient’s history of lupus meant this might be causing the inflammation of the lungs. The AI was proved correct.

Which is nice and all, but in the presence of a blood clot, I can understand that treating inflammation instead is not the first thing on a doctor's mind, what with blood clots being potentially life threatening and all. It raises the question; was this a real-life case, and what happened to that patient? Since this is a case for which the correct diagnosis is known, it was eventually correctly diagnosed - presumably then the patient did not die of a blood clot, nor of an uncontrollable fever.

Also, how representative is a patient with Lupus? According to House, MD, it's never Lupus.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#346
post #11

I'd be very very hesitant to trust studies like this. It's very easy to mess up these benchmarks. See for example this recent paper where AI managed to beat radiologists on interpreting x-rays... when the AI didn't even have access to the x-rays: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.21687 (on a pre existing "large scale visual question answering benchmark for generalist chest x-ray understanding" that wasn't intentionally mess…

> the human doctors don't just look at the notes to diagnose the ER patient

From my limited experience hanging on ER hallways for other people, they don't look at the notes, they look at the damn patient.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#347
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would use one for sure. Much of medicine is getting tests / labs booked fighting to get certain medicines. Doctors will barely give you 5 minutes only deal with one issue per visit, rarely are available and going into an office can make you sicker. An llm with Doctor powers could offer more. I don't think we are at the surgery point but we are past getting notes and medicine's refilled.

So why not order your own labs? I'm sure you can think of ways to get your own medications if you are sufficiently convinced that this is the best course of action for your health.

Because you can't order many of your own labs, and then insurance won't pay for them.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think this too. But the past couple of years have soured my taste for "dismantle and replace" of vital institutions. I still think healthcare needs to be reformed, and I hope that insurance will someday be a thing of a past, but I've hung up my chain saw for now.

You've witnessed a dismantle and replace effort by the right wing that wishes to squeeze everything to make rich people more money. An effort by the left would destroy the private insurance scheme and build up medicare. Completely different and you'd get something functional. When the wrong targets get destroyed, everyone suffers. When parasitic forces are destroyed, the system functions better. It's the difference b…

We already had an effort by the left. You can “no true scotsmen” if you want, but it represents the reality of what will happen when ideals clash a sector that makes up 18% of the GDP.

What’s going to be different now than in 2010?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So much of what I know from women in my life is that the human element of medicine is almost a strict negative for them. As a guy it hasn't been much better, but at least doctors listen to me when I say something.

Yes, yes, but when was your last period? This even translates to the pediatric space. I took all of my kids to the pediatrician because either they don't make comments to me like they do to my wife, or I don't take shit from them. I'm not sure which. Here's an example: My wife and daughter were there and the doctor asked what kind of milk my daughter was drinking. She said "whole milk" and the doctor made a comment a…

Why would they suggest switching to a lower fat percentage milk?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#350

I wouldn't put much weight in this study, but I think a lot of us can still attest to the usefulness of LLMs in self-diagnostics. The reality in the US is that it is difficult to get the attention and care of a doctor so we're left having to do it ourselves. 10 years ago you'd hear docs complaining about patients coming in with things they found on google but now I don't think there's an alternative. Case in point, I…

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