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Waymo in Portland

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Re: Waymo in Portland

#341
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of this is just that the US rail system is amazingly shitty by global standards.

The US is a very big, very spread out place. I'm not sure which country has trains that take you directly to your front door.

Recently, on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47815395

Re: Waymo in Portland

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. Pass a law that continuing to be noisy or disruptive on a bus or train after a warning results in 10 years of prison time with no parole and consistently enforce it. The problem will solve itself without a chicken and egg problem. Problematic people can simply be removed from society to make for a good social environment. Adding more good people is not the only option and in fact only hides the problem inst…

This would involve incarcerating a lot of homeless people, which is expensive, and pro-homeless activists would see it as a human rights abuse and fight it.

It would be expensive, but would have everyday visible tangible effects which you can't always say about other government spending. In regards to people thinking it's abusing people's rights they will just have to be ignored or taught to respect other people's right to a good experience with public transport.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m 99-100% a car user now after living in Portland, Seattle and Los Angeles. Here’s why - I gave up my car for a bike when I lived in Portland, however when people openly smoked fentanyl on the trains the train operators had to stop the train during my morning/afternoon commute for ~15 minutes (this happened often). Also the last straw for me was getting my place broken into and having my bike stolen. Therefore I mo…

Look I don't fault you - Americans drive cars because every alternative is absolute dogshit, I don't disagree. But I can't e realistic about that and not this: > As for the environmental impact, I agree that trains or busses may sometimes be better for environment That's like saying gunshots may sometimes be more dangerous than throwing rocks. > but we’re also approaching a future of self driving electric cars powere…

These also don't disappear if you replace privately-owned cars with buses and trains. You need paved roads to put buses on and track to put trains on, and they emit particulate pollution as well unless they're also electrified which is a similar problem to electrifying cars.

Low-density residential sprawl is mostly water-inefficient because it allows people to have the ability to have a garden that they water, you don't inherently use more household-internal water if you live in a suburban house compared to an apartment. Most of the energy efficiency issues are also directly related to low-density residential zoning allowing for more physical space for a dwelling than an equivalently-expensive dwelling would cost in an expensive, dense urban area. In short, the things about low-density residential neighborhoods that are less energy efficiently mostly don't have to do with cars and mostly do have to do with goods that people actively want and can only afford outside of dense urban areas.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#344
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just the current cost. The long term cost structure should be based on cars that come out of the factory with all the right stuff pre-installed. There's a BOM for some extra components; many of which you might already find in some cars. Otherwise it's just another EV. So, long term the extra cost per mile relative to a driver driving the same car should be cents rather than dollars per mile. And of course if t…

> A robo taxi only has down time when there are no rides, or for charging and maintenance/cleaning. It's wierd to see this fantasy of machines on HN, of all places - that they have no downtime, no additional costs - it's only a savings from employing people), and (not said here) they don't make mistakes. Lots of machines have far more downtime and cost than people. Many have more maintenance hours than operating hour…

Of course they have downtime. They need to charge. Waymo partners with car rental companies for depot operations where they inspect for damage and clean the cars. Damaged cars need to get repaired.

But, a Waymo car has a huge impact compared to gig drivers. Even ones that do it 12 hours a day. The Waymo fleet is maximally available for both rush-hour busy times plus closing time at bars and nightclubs.

I don't know if they've released updated fleet statistics, but in the past I've been shocked at how small it is relative to the visibility and passenger miles. This indicates that downtime isn't a limiting factor.

Gig drivers optimize, or try to, their individual revenue and other preferences the shape their responsiveness to customer demand. In other words it's two sided market among individuals. Waymo isn't. Waymo optimizes across their whole fleet for revenue, presumably, and customer satisfaction.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#345
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2025, TriMet had 262 million passenger miles at a system cost of $812 million, for a cost of $3.09 per passenger mile.[1] Fares covered 7.8% of their costs. The other 92.2% came from payroll taxes and federal grants. For comparison, a Lyft or Uber in the same area would cost you $1-2 per mile. Obviously it's not feasible for all 200k daily riders to take Uber/Lyft, and the Uber/Lyft cost doesn't include externalit…

This is an implementation problem, not a problem with the underlying concept. Public transit like buses and lightrail are significantly more efficient per person than personal vehicles. This is because they can transport many more people for the same amount of space and energy. They also typically run on set tracks, which yields more efficiency gains. The US is really, really bad at doing public transit. It doesn't h…

The $812 million figure for 2025 did not include the cost to build the rail system. Nor did it include many other expenses. TriMet's expenditures for this year are $1.185 billion.[1]

If you divide passenger miles for TriMet busses (141,726,107) by the number of revenue miles (21,195,016), you get an average of 6.7 passengers per bus, or around 10% of available seats. For MAX (the train) you get an average of 27.4 passengers per train, or around 16% of available seats. In both cases that's seats, not total capacity including standing room. I realize it's important to provision the system for peak demand, but still this seems very wasteful.

And because road wear scales with the fourth power of axle loading, a bus will typically cause 1,000x more road damage than a car.[2] Assuming every car on the road has only one occupant, this means that, on average, a TriMet bus causes 150x more road wear per occupant. The main externality created by cars is traffic.

I agree with you that public transportation can work. It clearly does in many places. But Portland's public transportation is dysfunctional, and I don't see that changing any time soon. That's why substitutes (even partial substitutes like Waymo) are beneficial. The more options people have for getting around, the better off they'll be.

1. https://trimet.org/budget/pdf/2026-adopted-budget.pdf

2. https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/yes-bus-more-road-da...

Re: Waymo in Portland

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rideshare drivers can speed

once we've refactored humans out of driving, the speed limits can go way up

Theoretically, fully automated driving doesn't require traffic signals, as much lighting, guard rails, lane width, rumble strips, reflectors, signage, etc.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#347
post #307
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Trains are great I wonder how much that sentiment is that based on steampunk and 1880's nostalgia?

Bus Rapid Transit is another option that could be amazing (while being much cheaper to implement), but it falls short for the same reason as trains: they require dedicated infrastructure that complicates driving, and complicating driving is political suicide.

One of the things I found when advocating for transit was that BRT cost savings in the US almost always come from reducing quality at stations, which loses public support faster than you save money. I found that voters are usually willing to spend far more on trains than on BRT, in excess of any savings.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#348
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of providing a bus exceeds the cost of operating a car in many cases, like lower population density neighborhoods. It may save the public money to centralize transit on major corridors and then subsidize trips on Waymo in some areas and at some times.

how many people can fit in a bus compared to a car?

"Centralize transit on major corridors" is about full buses. But transit agencies spend as much per hour on an empty bus as a full one. Transit agencies run empty buses on routes that are rarely full, and run vans and even microtransit that may just be a waste of money.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#349
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent ten years in the trenches of American urban design policy. The best we could do was lose very slightly less quickly . It's not changing. Trains are great, we should build more, and we probably should replace a lot of bus routes by subsidizing rides on Waymo and its ilk. It'll be cheaper and provide better service.

>Trains are great I wonder how much that sentiment is that based on steampunk and 1880's nostalgia?

What makes you say that? I'd only propose them in very high density corridors (or in corridors where building a train would be paired with allowing high density).

Re: Waymo in Portland

#350
post #335

I just wish the US would build trains. All I want.

You need density for trains, but Portlanders think it is a war crime to ask you to work from an office or tear down a dead mall to build housing, so…

Portlanders do not think this. Survey people in Portland and you'll find they want trains as well. NIMBYs don't and NIMBYs make up the majority of people who actually have the time and wealth to go to city meetings.
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