UAE to leave OPEC • Hacker News Board

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#341

Post by toraway » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #248

watwut wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Well, Iran closed the Straight and the world is facing biggest oil crises since 90ties. US was in fact incapable to prevent it. Even if the Straight opened today, harm already happened and will continue to happen for months. And I dont think it will open today. The war did not had to start at all and is causing considerable harm already. Iran feeling pain d…

> The war did not had to start at all and is causing considerable harm already. Iran feeling pain does not mean surrounding states were protected - instead they were put into harms way. They were always in harm's way. The war could have waited, and Iran could have doubled or tripled its missile stockpile and then they really would have been in harm's way. You're falling in to the same trap I mentioned "country does X…

  > They were always in harm's way. The war could have waited, and Iran could have doubled or tripled its missile stockpile and then they really would have been in harm's way.

I keep hearing this line defending US intervention but it doesn't really make sense. Iran was not threatening shipping traffic in the strait regardless of how many missiles they stocked up until they were forced to do so as an asymmetric warfare response to an attack by a superior military.

The missing ingredient has never been how many missiles Iran has stockpiled, it was external military action from someone like the US that gave them the window to assert that control.

The US didn't do the world any favors by getting it out of the way sooner or something, that's just absurd apoligism for a poorly planned war of choice that has obviously been a net negative for basically the entire world.

It would be like if the US nuked China and then shrugged after they predictably retaliated saying it just proved the threat from their stockpile that had always existed.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#342

Post by ApolloFortyNine » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:29 PM UTC

watwut wrote: post #234

ericmay wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in…

> Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Well, Iran closed the Straight and the world is facing biggest oil crises since 90ties. US was in fact incapable to prevent it. Even if the Straight opened today, harm already happened and will continue to happen for months. And I dont think it will open today. The war did not had to start at all and is causing considerable harm already. Iran feeling pain d…

>Well, Iran closed the Straight and the world is facing biggest oil crises since 90ties. US was in fact incapable to prevent it. Even if the Straight opened today, harm already happened and will continue to happen for months. And I dont think it will open today.

Adjusted for inflation the price of oil isn't even the highest it's been this decade, let alone historically.

The price tripled from 2003-2008 as well.

>The war did not had to start at all

We probably won't know for twenty years if that's true or not. It's not as Iran's been some peaceful country for the last twenty years, they actively have sponsored terrorist organizations with the purpose of destabilizing the region. The country also sits on a wealth of natural resources but was solely researching nuclear power for peaceful purposes.

Really the big lesson for the next superpower is to simply act earlier. If you don't care about winning and just being a thorn in everyone's side, ballistic missiles are a great investment, and it should have been taken more seriously when Iran started stockpiling thousands of them.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#343

Post by breppp » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC

mgolawala wrote: post #306

Ifkaluva wrote: post #179

Can somebody knowledgeable help me understand why this is in the interests of the UAE? Also, seems like a moot point since the strait is closed. Why do they think it’s in their best interests, and why now?

Just my hunch but Iran is a founding member of OPEC. The UAE has had a long standing land dispute with Iran. The recent barrage of missiles might have just pushed the UAE leadership to have lost patience with their northern neighbor. This might be an act of protest.

Probably Saudi Arabia is more important in OPEC, so that might be actually a middle finger to SA. Saudi Arabia and UAE had a recent dispute in Yemen that went pretty hot.

An alternative is the US trying to dismantle OPEC together with its new found supply in Venezuela to drive prices down

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#344

Post by EduardoBautista » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:34 PM UTC

mothballed wrote: post #101

weard_beard wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that unique historical, cultural, and even geographical factors have led to this outcome for Oman. I would encourage you to read up on the history of the country to understand the nuance here and not paint with such a broad brush.

Everyone has a unique "..." and a nuance here and a nuance there. UAE has a unique yada yada and also ended up with a surprisingly remarkably free economic index despite being a theocratic monarchy. As did the monarchy Lichtenstein, British controlled Hong Kong, and the one-party state of Singapore (technically democratic, in practice it functions like a recallable monarchy). Also of note the three richest countries…

The UAE is not theocratic. Yes, Islam is the official religion but there is freedom of religion.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#345

Post by readthenotes1 » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:34 PM UTC

ambicapter wrote: post #328

amluto wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many CAFE compliant “light trucks” do you see around? CAFE is a great example of a well-meaning regulation failing because the people who developed and approved it didn’t think through the obvious consequences.

"It's your fault you didn't expressly disallow what I ended up doing to get around what you asked me not to do"

If you make a game someone's going to play it.

Allowing light trucks to turn the SUVs and replace sedans is not an "unintended consequence"--it's either stupidity or graft (not xor).

There are several laws that are "wtf -- is this the best we can do?"

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#346

Post by fakedang » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:34 PM UTC

eightysixfour wrote: post #181

Havoc wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed it’s leverage but at same time they only need the swap because all is not well in petrodollar land.

I don't think there is any evidence that they actually need the dollar swap line - the dirham-dollar peg isn't at any risk and they have plenty of money for fiscal flexibility going into the foreseeable future. If you take financial reasons off of the table then it is clear it is just a political play for a bigger seat at the table with the US. The Saudis did it to Biden in 2023, the UAE sees the opportunity to do it…

They need the dollars because they're an import-oriented economy, almost all of which are conducted in dollars (nobody wants their dirhams because oil is priced in dollars anyways). Dollars are also useful for their sovereign funds to invest into the US, either in the stock market, or in private equity.

What happened this week - they announced they might start selling in yuan, they left the OPEC, and they started a new wealth fund to invest exclusively in China. That gives them an alternative for the dollar-peg since China is their biggest import partner anyways, while also giving their surplus yuan an alternative channel of investment into China.

Still they need the dollar-swap for the essentials - food from India and Pakistan, neither of which will accept their dirhams unless they get exclusive deals (which are not allowed in OPEC). It helps for them that India and Pakistan need lots of oil, and that a dollar peg benefits the UAE more than it does either nation. If the EU plays a greater role in trade, particularly in defence and maritime manufacturing, they will stockpile euros too, to the detriment of the dollar.

Still, they also bought some prime DC acreage to expand their US diplomatic corps, and will likely keep the Washington connection, so long as AI is perceived as useful. Right now, that's the only major export benefit the US provides the Gulf countries. This is them just hedging their bets.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#347

Post by don_esteban » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:35 PM UTC

rramadass wrote: post #318

don_esteban wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than hald of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly. 2) They can gain by increasing their production, IF they can get that out through Hozmuz. And IF (after Hormuz is opened) other OPEC+ countries DO NOT decide to do the same and the price of oil collapses. 3) US did not meaningfully came to their help. The high-end air de…

> 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than hald of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly. Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly. OPEC had limited UAE's output to 2.9-3.5 million bpd thus far and since the conflict UAE has been targeting 5 million bpd. With this announcement the depende…

1) any sources for 'is being ramped up significantly'? To what capacity? 2) how much are you willing to bet? :-) 3) selling them arms and then causing a conflict where they expend those arms is a protection racket, not a help 4) stating claims does not make them true. Is it in their interests for the oil prices to collapse? It is a classical prisoner's dilemma. Coordination helps all of them. Being on their own allows external players to target/influence each of the small ones separately, at their weakest. Classical divide and conquer.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#348

Post by asa400 » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:43 PM UTC

debo_ wrote: post #285

stickfigure wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If gasoline is more expensive, customers will demand more efficient vehicles. We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. I'm old enough to remember when Japanese small cars practically took over the market in the 70s and 80s due to gas price shocks. It can happen again.

Tell that to the literal constant flow of old men I see driving pristine F150s in the metropolitan center of the Canadian city I live in.

They probably won't buy Honda Civics, but they (or their children, more realistically) might buy the electric equivalent of an F150 if the market produces one that can fulfill what they perceive their needs to be.

I just bought a (small, hybrid) truck because I need to do some truck stuff. I 100% would have bought an electric if the market produced one with comparable capability and competitive price, but we're not there yet, and I don't have Rivian money (yet! lol maybe someday).

My point being: there is still a huge demand for trucks from both a capability and culture standpoint, and very little supply of a cost-comparable product that doesn't take gas or diesel. Rivian is around double what most people want to pay, and the F150 Lightning was marketed poorly and had bad towing/hauling range compared to gas/diesel equivalents.

I'm not here to defend "truck culture" but I do believe that if you offer people a better product, they will figure it out and buy it. An electric truck with 400+ miles of towing range, an onboard 2kW+ inverter, 500 ft-lbs of torque, and fast charging for the same price as a comparable gas F150 will sell. Unfortunately the battery energy density and EV supply chain economies of scale aren't there yet in North America.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#349

Post by breakyerself » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC

api wrote: post #221

bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

So little political will is needed at this point as the economics now favor renewables. Unfortunately most of the political will seems to be leaning towards protecting the more expensive fossil fuel sources of energy.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#350

Post by iso1631 » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 6:48 PM UTC

brightball wrote: post #312

api wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

> As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. IMO economics always wins. You're never going to see an all-cooperate scenario. You will see an all-compete scenario, so constantly reducing…

In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel

A plug in solar panel and microinverter at the local supermarket is about €1k/kW. 9kW of solar for €9k/£8k/$10.5k to power an average US car and an average US house.

Avearge US car does 13,000 miles a year needs about 4,500kWh, so €4500

An average US home uses 11kWh a day, or 4,000 kWh a year, that would be another €4000

US electric price is an average 17c per kWh. That's a 15% ROI.

I suspect the costs your quoting are mainly things like scaffolding and labour, and that's not going to get cheaper.

The panels themselves - ignoring inverter, install, etc, are $100 for a 400W panel [0]. To generate a whopping 16,000kWh a year -- 70% more than the average -- you'd need to spend $4k on panels. Even if panels were free, your quotes would still be obscene because tradesmen charge obscene amounts (or rather roofing work is just expensive)

[0] https://www.solartradesales.co.uk/aiko-neostar-2s-460w-n-typ...