Is this not just FAFO?
F-15E jet shot down over Iran
341–350 of 1001 posts
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#342Earlier quoted context omitted.
New reporting that an A-10 ~was also shot down~ has also gone down (unconfirmed if it was shot down) https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/03/world/iran-war-trump... > A second Air Force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, and the lone pilot was safely rescued, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The A-10 Warthog attack plane went d…
This is exactly the situation I think of when I hear news of rescue missions. Running a rescue in a place with functional air defense is a recursive rescue problem that could quickly get out of control.
Isn't that basically the plotline of the Blackhawk Down movie?
And, more importantly, the real-life events on which it's based?
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#343During the entire gulf war (Iraq, 1990-91), only two F-15s were shot down via surface-to-air engagement. At the time, Baghdad was known to have the highest density of SAM protection out of any city in the world. An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.
> An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.
Not to dispute that but what about the comparison makes it not a good sign? Iran has much more capable radar and missiles now than Iraq did 35 years ago, doesn't it?
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#344Why didn't Iran use its capability to take down enemy jets for an entire month?
Iran doesn't have to shoot down a single jet to win this war. Just move military hardware into caves. Sacrifice civilian infrastructure as the only viable bombing target. Wait it out until American domestic pressure from perceived war crimes ends the war. They can't afford to fight a land war or garrison over the entire country. The fact that Israel has leveled much of the 140 square miles of gaza over the past 3 yea…
> There isn't even a defined victory condition.
It's even worse if you consider what rational options the mullahs have. Yes, they are a murderous dictatorship and enemies of US - no question about that. But they did nothing to provoke this particular attack and they still got bombed.
Backing off without first inflicting severe pain is just not an option in this situation. It would be an invitation to get bombed at will.
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#345Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are 4 players in this war and they all have very different goals and "victory" conditions. 1. Israel wants to ruin Iran permanently, to turn it into Somalia 2.0, meaning a quasi-state with no organized, central government. Were they to succeed in this it would be a humantarian disaster the likes of which we haven't seen since probably WW2. Tens of millions of refugees that will probably collapse surrounding cou…
Not sure how the US comes back from this. Who will trust US treaties going forward?
It'll partly depend on what internal housecleaning—or perhaps fumigation—and reform happens in the US.
While it is unlikely to occur, imagine the international effect if the US resoundingly impeached and removed of a lawless president, and Congress formalized a lot of international agreements into statute rather than delegating too much to the executive branch.
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#346Earlier quoted context omitted.
Washington indeed has a giant desert but it's in the middle fwiw, the SERE school is in Spokane
Spokane is in the Eastern arid region of the state.
Spokane is not desert. Even surrounding territory is more plains. Some desert military training happens at Yakima much further west.
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#347Earlier quoted context omitted.
First to go down in Iran, but a surprising amount of attritions thus far - 3x F-15 friendly fire - 2x KC-130 refuel mid air collision (1 loss, 1 damaged) - 1x F-35 damaged - 1x AEWACs base strike - 3x KC-130 base strike (same) - 1x F-15 (this one) 2-3 a week is not great for the greatest military, more than half attributable to Iran. With 300+ US casualties, that's ~10/day, a fatality every ~2 days. No boots on the g…
You must not have read about all the hype Iran had before the war and before 2024 especially. The US airforce/navy has performed extremely well. In Desert Storm they lost far, far more aircraft and that only lasted 1.5 months (Iran is 1 month in). Even the ballistic missile strikes against Israel haven't been exceptionally notable, considering Iran is going full-bore and has thousands of ballistic/cruise missiles and…
Pretty much.
US military is performing quite well. US political leadership is the questionable part of this war.
It would sure be nice if White House gave a reason to believe that there's an actual plan for dismantling Iran's regime, or Iran's influence, that goes beyond "wing it".
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#348At what point is congress gonna grow a spine and retake their power? Every day the goalposts just get moved a little farther.
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#349Earlier quoted context omitted.
First to go down in Iran, but a surprising amount of attritions thus far - 3x F-15 friendly fire - 2x KC-130 refuel mid air collision (1 loss, 1 damaged) - 1x F-35 damaged - 1x AEWACs base strike - 3x KC-130 base strike (same) - 1x F-15 (this one) 2-3 a week is not great for the greatest military, more than half attributable to Iran. With 300+ US casualties, that's ~10/day, a fatality every ~2 days. No boots on the g…
You must not have read about all the hype Iran had before the war and before 2024 especially. The US airforce/navy has performed extremely well. In Desert Storm they lost far, far more aircraft and that only lasted 1.5 months (Iran is 1 month in). Even the ballistic missile strikes against Israel haven't been exceptionally notable, considering Iran is going full-bore and has thousands of ballistic/cruise missiles and…
> They should be able to do much more to regional military bases.
I don't see why they couldn't. The obvious strategy for Iran right now is to use cluster munitions and Shahed waves to expend as many interceptors as possible before sending in the high-throw unitary (or nuclear) warheads. It makes sense that we saw the smaller MRBMs first since they're the cheapest minimum-viable threat.
> this has been about as good as one could expect - within the limits of what an air-only campaign can do.
We're deep in the missile age. Air campaigns like this sucked during the Scud hunt, and it triple-sucks now that America has to contend with drone warfare. The limits of an air-only campaign have been constricting for the past three decades, and the death toll can only climb if the air war fails.
Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran
#350Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, A-10s are well suited for strafing runs, etc. Presumably they'd be sent in if the area they're entering is presumed safe. That clearly didn't pan out. The reality is avoiding a ground operation was probably the wrong move at this point (ignoring the spicier broader debate of if the whole Iran campaign was the right call or not) It's really hard to truly guarantee surface to air capabilities are gone when you're…
> ignoring the spicier broader debate of if the whole Iran campaign was the right call or not How spicy of a debate is that really? How many people outside of the admin and the dwindling hardcore trump base actually thought this was a good idea?
Apparently 37.7% of Americans, so roughly 116 million people, support the war. I'm not sure "this was a good idea" was a the exact question though.
https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54454-most-americans-oppos...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-appro...
Clearly this war isn't popular but that's a far cry from saying there's no debate. Like many other topics/questions we're seeing people following their tribe and bubbles rather than actual debating.