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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

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Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#341

Post by globular-toast »

stuxnet79 wrote: post #154
Havoc wrote: post #62

Bought a couple of 32gb SBCs before this all hit the fan. And also built a SSD NAS before the wave hit. So timed that all pretty great. What worries me is my desktop is up for a full new buy somewhere around early '28. That could be a train wreck depending on how taiwan situation goes

> So timed that all pretty great. What worries me is my desktop is up for a full new buy somewhere around early '28 That's a very specific date / timeline. How do you decide to do a full new buy? I ask because I own a desktop that I built 15 years ago which I was flirting with replacing completely last year, but unfortunately I didn't pull the trigger ... oops :( My old rig is still going strong. The motherboard can…

My PC is similar. I upgraded it to a 4790k a few years ago (best CPU on the socket). What's funny is I also maxed out the RAM as well because I realised two more 8GiB sticks were like £30 so why not. I thought it was a funny thing to do at the time as I didn't really need that much, but glad I did now. It's going to have to do me for many more years to come, but I'm fine with that. I don't game at all. Just have to hope nothing fails. I did build it with solid foundations: good and overprovisioned PSU, Asus mobo, so here's hoping.

Unfortunately I do also have server gear now as well. I'm going to have to really think about what I actually need now...

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#343

Post by pseudohadamard »

alsetmusic wrote: post #328
reenorap wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an extinction event for the low-cost cell phone companies. How are they going to survive if they can't sell their $100 phones profitably for 2 years? I think many of the low-end companies will simply sell their allocations of RAM and close up shop.

This is my greatest concern. So many small players will be wiped out. Consolidation is assured. Always great for consumers to be under the thumb of increasingly large companies.

Will it be such a big deal though? Currently people are swapping out their phones for another model that's exactly the same but with a different number at the end of the name every 12 months. This could just mean that the unnecessary churn dies down a bit, and companies taking advantage of it have to find a new line of business.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#345

Post by pseudohadamard »

Joe_Cool wrote: post #274
TheScaryOne wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My Samsung Galaxy S3 died after 8 years. EMMC failure. Just started boot looping while I was asleep. Everything gone. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years. Some kind of thermal failure, I was able to recover my data by keeping the phone in the freezer while I copied. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S21? I figure I've got another year or two in it before it, too, dies. Having beautiful dead phones that hav…

I am noticing something those devices have in common. My Galaxy Tab also has dead EMMC. My HTC One M8 still works and even holds a day of charge. Too bad Android doesn't support 32bit ARM anymore.

It can also depend on the hardware it's connected to. If the endless gigabytes of Samsung's value-add software are scribbling to eMMC nonstop then it's not surprising the flash is wearing out. A lot of this stuff is masked by the fact that most people swap out their phone for a new one that's exactly the same every 12 months so they never notice this, but if you hold onto a phone or similar device for longer the unnecessary wear starts to add up.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#346

Post by leptons »

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #246
bashtoni wrote: post #95

Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.

> Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I believe helium, although important constitutes a small percent of the cost of semiconductors, so its effect on price will be less severe. It will be more noticeable in other uses of helium though - party balloons could get very expensive etc.

Considering helium is a finite resource on earth, it should be made illegal to put it in a party balloon.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#347

Post by leptons »

TechSquidTV wrote: post #262
bashtoni wrote: post #95

Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.

We stood still on Intel 14nm for YEARS, then a few years of decent progress, and now this. Moore's law is taking a beating.

Moore's law only really works when at least part of the world is functioning under practically ideal conditions. Right now that's far from what's happening.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#348

Post by leptons »

therealdrag0 wrote: post #302
attentive wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

just do vibe performance optimization (I am not even kidding)

Yep I’ve seen multiple instances of this so far.

Yeah, I got the AI to convert some code that ran at 30fps in Javascript to C, and it resulted in a program that generated 1 frame every 20 seconds. Then I told it to optimize it, and now it's running at 1 fps. After going back and forth with the AI for hours, it never got faster than 1 fps. I guess I'm "doing it wrong" as the hypesters like to tell me.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#349

Post by seany »

AngryData wrote: post #138
Dylan16807 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultra clean rooms with massive air handling systems can't recapture all their helium? Or is this just a temporary thing based on where processing is located?

Helium is almost all captured from gas wells by cryogenically liquefying the nitrogen out of it. I guess you could do technically do that with the fab's air but it is a LOT of volume of air to liquefy and likely costs more than even inflated helium prices. Most helium from most wells is simply vented because it is expensive to separate even with its relatively high concentration, and I imagine even the best case scen…

The fact that all helium escapes the atmosphere, and is essentially impossible to produce makes things a bit more complicated.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#350

Post by Marsymars »

ciupicri wrote: post #24
dangus wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are talking about brand new latest gen hardware here. People with low budgets are always scraping and saving for deals and don’t need to buy something brand new from a pricey brand name like raspberry pi. You can still jump on eBay and buy all kinds of dirt cheap used pieces of hardware. My buddy just bought a used ThinkPad T14 with 32GB of RAM and 1TB of storage for about $500. You can get by with a whole lot les…

That cheap stuff from eBay that people talk about all the time seems to be available only in North America, or in the best case Western Europe. ThinkPad T14 which generation?

Sometimes goes the other way. I was recently looking for a specific PC case (Fractal Design Torrent Compact without a window) and it's entirely unavailable in North America.

Placed an order with a Polish seller on eBay, received a message that Fedex wouldn't take the package due to size, replied that they could send with any shipping company and that I'm not concerned with shipping speed, after which they cancelled the order on me.

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