Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

341–350 of 419 posts

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#341

Post by pseudohadamard »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #267
mmooss wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US would not win a ground war in Iran. Before every US war, people tend to think the US military and their $800 billion/year budget are unbeatable. But look at outcomes of significant US ground wars since WWII - only one clear victory: * Korea: Stalemate, which is still a problem now 70 years later * Vietnam: Loss * Gulf War: Victory * Afganistan: Loss, after 20 years of fighting * Iraq: Mixed results after 8 yea…

But if the goal was actually to destabilize those places then maybe it worked as intended?

The current lot in Iran came to power through revolution and they've made very sure that the same thing can't happen to them. The whole system of government, or at least rule, is designed from top to bottom to make as sure as it's possible to get that it can't be overthrown from within. I'm sure Trump's highly qualified expert advisors on the subject, Witkoff and Kushner, told him about this small problem before he launched his attacks.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#342

Post by pseudohadamard »

4ndrewl wrote: post #178
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re just seeing the logic of US defense by offense, and the reason why the excursion was launched as it was three weeks ago. If you step back, in 1979 Iran launched a revolution that had an avowed goal of “death to America”. If the Iranians play the kinetic scenario to the bitter end, they simply are demonstrating this was not mere poetry and there never was any other off-ramp, just tactically deciding at…

It's an incursion. He got confused and keeps saying excursion, which is a different thing.

No he's describing himself. His term so far has been a power excursion that's just getting more extreme as it goes on.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#343

Post by Hikikomori »

sph wrote: post #189
themafia wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that had an avowed goal of “death to America”. 31 million people just woke up and decided to hate America? Or.. was there a little more to that story?

The hatred has been there since the 70s, at the very least. Watched a great video on Iran from Rick Steves filmed in 2009, and when he visited a mosque there was a large sign calling for the death of America and Israel.

They just hate American freedom or what?

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#344

Post by tsoukase »

It's not mystery. Any US military engagement has multiple benefits:

1) direct increase and profit for weapon companies, military contractors and oil people

2) show the world who the boss is and everyone should stay under the wing

3) propagate fear globally and keep people aligned

And this time another one is added

4) shorting and gambling of active politicians having insider knowledge

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#345

Post by ZeroGravitas »

zahlman wrote: post #273
inaros wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

A massive failure could blunt or slow their attempts to seize Cuba, Greenland and Canada.

On the other hand an inadvertant success, like Venezuela, could accelerate those plans.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#346

Post by lenkite »

rasz wrote: post #339
password54321 wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a defeat for Israel False, Israel has used the whole war to take over Lebanon almost silently from mass media attention. They are about to annex a part of it.

Lebanon is about UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and 20 years on it not being enforced. UNIFIL failed spectacularly, looks like Israel decided to enforce it themselves. https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/in-lebanon-there-are-no-mo... "For the first time, a country enamored of compromises, half measures and trickery is watching these options vanish, replaced by a brutal choice: confront Hezbollah and risk destructi…

It would be great if Israel also implemented UN Security Council Resolution 497 (1981) and gave up Golan Heights to Syria, etc. But they won't do that.

> confront Hezbollah and risk destruction, or ensure it by doing nothing."

This is ridiculous. When your nation's citizens are being wiped out into non-existence and your land occupied, will you support the invaders or the guys who are fighting the invaders ? Hezbollah now all of Lebanon as a recruitment pipeline. They have utterly no shortage of volunteers now.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#348

Post by pfannkuchen »

mmooss wrote: post #337
pfannkuchen wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if the goal was actually to destabilize those places then maybe it worked as intended?

I can't think of any examples of that and don't see that in the wars listed above. Destabilized countries are bad news for entire regions and can become havens and recruiting grounds for terrorists, criminals, etc. And those things spread across borders. The idea that the Iranians will act on his wishes is a fantasy of someone who wants to win without paying the costs, as a freebie.

Destabilized nations are good if you are a nearby nation wanting to expand and you expect those other nations to oppose you.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#349

Post by bigfatkitten »

sph wrote: post #189
themafia wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that had an avowed goal of “death to America”. 31 million people just woke up and decided to hate America? Or.. was there a little more to that story?

The hatred has been there since the 70s, at the very least. Watched a great video on Iran from Rick Steves filmed in 2009, and when he visited a mosque there was a large sign calling for the death of America and Israel.

Since the 1950s, and I wonder why that might be?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#350

Post by darepublic »

megous wrote: post #309
sph wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hatred has been there since the 70s, at the very least. Watched a great video on Iran from Rick Steves filmed in 2009, and when he visited a mosque there was a large sign calling for the death of America and Israel.

"death of America and Israel" These are states. A particular instance of cooperating individuals, with some overall vector of behavior that affects people elsewhere. Wishing for that to end is hate how exactly? I would not mind, and I actually wish america and israel and russia and few other states end as they are today (not just a mild refactoring, end and split to 10s of smaller independent entities, that can cause…

The fact that you can rationalize those statements is a pure example of western self sabotage. Please leave your doors unlocked at night, leave food out for the raccoons and always trust in the kindness of strangers. Especially those expressing a desire of death to your vector of behaviour
Post reply on HN