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I'm OK being left behind, thanks

shkspr.mobi

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Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#341

Post by layer8 »

Tade0 wrote: post #186

To me the main question is the long term pricing. It is said that major providers more than break even on what they're charging. But at the same time that's not the point of capitalism, is it? The point is to charge close to the value you're providing. My lunch money is approximately $10 and I often blow through as much in Claude tokens generously provided by the company which hired me. But I'm not getting $10 value…

> But at the same time that's not the point of capitalism, is it? The point is to charge close to the value you're providing.

The question is how large the value delta will be from open models. And I’m not sure if the cost of entry is really “extremely” high comparatively if as you project the market will be so profitable. Surely investors will see a chance to get a larger piece of that profit. While model training is costly, there is a ceiling imposed by the training material being limited (at least for text). LLMs also don’t have a network-effect moat like social media has, or a web search moat like Google has, or a chip technology moat like TSMC has. It’s unclear if a significant moat will emerge.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#342

Post by genthree »

throwaway29130 wrote: post #305
afpx wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really insane what is happening. My wife manages 70 software developers. Her boss mandated that managers replace 50% of the staff with AI within a year. And, she's scrambling trying to figure out if any of the tools actually work and annoying her team because she keeps pushing AI on them. Unsurprisingly it's only slowed things down and put her in a terrible position.

Brutal. But probably all too common. One of my clients has very suddenly gone all-in on agentic AI and they're in this crazy hurry. (Probably the most annoying part is they want to automate stuff that I built a POC for using GPT-4o, two years ago - at the time they saw no use for it, but now they're all-in on the hype.) This started literally two weeks ago and a couple of days ago I talked to one of the admin people…

For a non-tech case of this, my wife worked at a place that fired like 80% of their writers in anticipation of huge speed-ups they expected from LLMs, a couple years ago.

They had to hire a bunch of them back less than two months later. The speed-ups were approximately nil and making the editors edit AI slop all day long had them all close to quitting.

They didn't even wait to see if there were any actual benefits, they just blindly fired a bunch of people based on marketing lies. I can only assume they're the same sorts who fall for Nigerian Prince scams.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#343

Post by cyber_kinetist »

bogzz wrote: post #29

It's a horrifying feeling facing the possibility that the career I spent so much time and money to get into is fading away. Sure, LLMs are not there yet, and they might not ever quite get there. But will companies start hiring again? If productivity has gone up, and it seems like it has, then no. So, a decade of hanging by a thread, getting by and doubling down on CS, hoping that the job market sees an uptick? Or try…

I think the bigger issue is not that LLMs are taking away developer jobs, but the current geopolitical crisis (the collapse of the US empire and the end of the neoliberal era) is leading towards an imminent economic catastrophe, and that would be enough to pop not only the AI bubble, but an even bigger "IT bubble" that has been proliferating since the 90s.

Programmers (and other white collar jobs) were able to luxuriously coast along the ZIRP era because capital (replenished twice via quantitative easing) was cheap and plentiful, and because the elites at the top had to pump huge amounts money to create a shared fantasy of the "technological future" that validates the neoliberal era. Now that the reality of the actual "physical economy" (the economy of making tangible things) has clawed back at us because of that forbidden three-letter word (war), we all realize that doubling and tripling oil prices were actually dictating our lives rather than some "Skynet AI" crap, and thus our fantasy simulacra of "virtual" play-things have now come to an end. Oh and we all found out that most of SaaS was actually bullshit anyway. In fact, if it could be completely replaced by AI then it was already pretty bullshit in the first place.

So, for smart STEM people uninterested in programming and only looking for a stable career, I think they would be better off by just doing engineering work that's a bit more tangible, like robotics, manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction, etc. (Or anything related to war, but only if you're able to stomach what you're doing.) If you don't like to sit all day for a salary, then niche blue collar work can also be a good option, since general-purpose robotics (Physical AI?) is still too far away because of many, many issues that's just too long to explain here. I still think if you like programming then you should stick to it in the long run - there will be a very cold winter because of the combination of LLMs, AI bubble pop, and general economic depression, but for those who survive this era there will be an opportunity because of the shortage of skilled programmers (since no-one bothered to hire juniors after the pop, no one will grow to become seniors themselves!) Computing will still be with us forever, just not in a way that investors thought that it's going to "engulf the world".

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#345

Post by bluGill »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #80
bluGill wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should be able to pick up tools and learn on need. There are better version control systems than git - always have been, but git won despite being worse. (Git was massively better than what was popular before it won) if you can't learn git quick then you shouldn't program at all - there are much harder tools you will need to know and many are company or project specific

Mercurial?

That is the one I know best but there are other options that people I tend to trust say are good. There are more options than I have time to give them an honest evaluation.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#346

Post by debatem1 »

jimmyjazz14 wrote: post #217
augusto-moura wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I get a bit annoyed is companies forcing AI tools, getting usage metrics and actively hunting the engineers that don't use the tool "enough", I've never seen anything like it for a technically optional tool. Even in the past, aside from technical limitaions, you were not required to use enough of a tool. It just sounds like a giant scheme to burn through tokens and give money to the AI corps, and tech directors…

Yeah, I found this strange as well, if the tech is so amazing why do developers need to be forced to use it?

I'm encouraging my folks to try it pretty hard because A) I've personally seen the productivity gains and B) using it is at first deeply weird/uncomfortable. Sometimes you've got to convince people to push through that kind of thing.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#347

Post by sarchertech »

hibikir wrote: post #273
augusto-moura wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I get a bit annoyed is companies forcing AI tools, getting usage metrics and actively hunting the engineers that don't use the tool "enough", I've never seen anything like it for a technically optional tool. Even in the past, aside from technical limitaions, you were not required to use enough of a tool. It just sounds like a giant scheme to burn through tokens and give money to the AI corps, and tech directors…

It's using a bad tool to try to aim at something reasonable-ish: Developers not taking advantage of the tools in places where it's very easy to get use out of them. I have coworkers like that: One spent 3 days researching a bug that Claude found in 10 minutes by pointing it at the logs in the time window and the codebase. And he didn't even find the bug, when Claude nailed it in one. But is this something that is bes…

The thing is we’ve always had people who spend more time on their tooling or learn different tools and perform better.

I’ve seen people use notepad and I’ve seen people who are so good at vim that they look like they’re on editing code directly with their mind.

Your particular example is extreme and my guess is the coworker is just not great at debugging. I use Claude all the time for finding bugs, but it fails fairly frequently though. I think there’s probably advantage to having some people who don’t use it that often, so you have someone to turn to when it fails.

I’m definitely not exercising my debugging skills as much as I used to and I’m fairly confident they’ve atrophied.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#348

Post by mock-possum »

wolframhempel wrote: post #50

There's value in being early - in the right thing. - If you'd invested in Bitcoin in 2016, you'd have made a 200x return - If you'd specialized in neural networks before the transformer paper, you'd be one of the most sought-after specialists right now - If you'd started making mobile games when the iPhone was released, you could have built the first Candy Crush Of course, you could just as well have - become an Acti…

In all fairness I was an actionscript specialist, and up until 2010 or so I was making REAL good money doing contract flash work -

Luckily I was also doing frontend work alongside, so when the time came to transition to html+css+javascript, it wasn’t much of a move at all, it was just putting down AS and focusing fully on JS

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#349

Post by toomuchtodo »

jacobsenscott wrote: post #337
augusto-moura wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I get a bit annoyed is companies forcing AI tools, getting usage metrics and actively hunting the engineers that don't use the tool "enough", I've never seen anything like it for a technically optional tool. Even in the past, aside from technical limitaions, you were not required to use enough of a tool. It just sounds like a giant scheme to burn through tokens and give money to the AI corps, and tech directors…

> t just sounds like a giant scheme to burn through tokens and give money to the AI corps, and tech directors are falling for it immediately. This is exactly what's happening. The top 5 or 6 companies in the s&p 500 are running a very sophisticated marketing/pressure campaign to convince every c-suite down stream that they need to force AI on their entire organization or die. It's working great. CEOs don't get fired…

~40-50% of the S&P500 rely on this continuing.

S&P 500 Concentration Approaching 50% - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47384002 - March 2026

> No of course there isn't enough capital for all of this. Having said that, there is enough capital to do this for a at least a little while longer. -- Gil Luria (Managing Director and Analyst at D.A. Davidson)

OpenAI Needs a Trillion Dollars in the Next Four Years - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45394071 - September 2025 (8 comments)

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#350

Post by forgetfulness »

genthree wrote: post #296
forgetfulness wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My uncle leads IT support teams, the org is measuring AI use in writing reports and tickets. The org has very poorly structured and obsolete processes (he's trying to straighten them up as he goes), AI will probably amplify the lack of structure, by making it easier for the work to _look_ as if someone carefully reviewed the issues and followed procedure. A friend is a team lead in an org that's mandating vibecoding…

I hate the AI assistants for ticket-writing. The beneficial use there would be to prompt for possibly-useful information that's not present, or call out ambiguity and let the writer decide how to resolve any of that. Coaching, basically. Suggesting actual text to include, for people who aren't already excellent at ticket-writing, just leads to noisier tickets that take more work to understand ("did they really mean t…

Lots of organizations don't want to accept that their velocity issues are quality issues. It's often a view held by an old guard that was there when the business experienced growth by adding features, while not having to bear any maintenance burden. The people who remain are either also oblivious to this, or simply have stopped caring.

LLM-generated code hits all the right notes, it's done fast, in great volumes, and it even features what the naysayers were asking for. Each PR has 20 pages of documentation and adds some bulk to the stuff in the tests folder, that can sit there looking pretty. How wonderful! Hell, you can even do now that "code review" that some nerd was always complaining about, just ask the bot to review it and hit that merge button.

Then you ask the bot to generate the commands again for the deploy (what CI pipeline?) and bam! New features customers will love. And maybe data corruption.

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