Earlier quoted context omitted.
Europe has no choice but to lean into low carbon generation and EVs now, their hand is forced by geopolitical energy events outside of their control. These options are objectively cheaper than attempting to develop new domestic fossil resources. China will build every cheap EV Europe will buy if the EU cannot build them fast enough (citations on EU EV sales are in my comment you replied to), so buy them or experience…
> Europe has no choice I’ve been following you for 13 years in this site, and I really expect more intellectually honest comments from you. You’re trying to tell us that developing new battery technology, new storage technology, deploying more wind / solar and replacing the entire European vehicle fleet, is cheaper than building new oil / gas infrastructure. I’m not buying it. Regarding the comment in my profile, I’v…
Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
341–350 of 474 posts
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#342Earlier quoted context omitted.
Europe has no choice but to lean into low carbon generation and EVs now, their hand is forced by geopolitical energy events outside of their control. These options are objectively cheaper than attempting to develop new domestic fossil resources. China will build every cheap EV Europe will buy if the EU cannot build them fast enough (citations on EU EV sales are in my comment you replied to), so buy them or experience…
> Europe has no choice I’ve been following you for 13 years in this site, and I really expect more intellectually honest comments from you. You’re trying to tell us that developing new battery technology, new storage technology, deploying more wind / solar and replacing the entire European vehicle fleet, is cheaper than building new oil / gas infrastructure. I’m not buying it. Regarding the comment in my profile, I’v…
I believe the failure is on your part, not my part, as I am simply providing facts. Whether you agree with facts is beyond my control. They remain facts. You keep stating, inaccurately, that renewables and batteries are expensive, when they are the cheapest combined generation technology. This is widely proven, and again, I am sorry if for whatever reason you are ignoring that fact.
> Also, in Australia, electricity price increases have been double or triple that of general inflation.
The facts do not align with your assertion. I have provided citations below to assist you in updating your mental model on the price and carbon intensity trajectory of the Australian power markets.
Power prices expected to fall by up to 10% from July, bringing ‘welcome relief’ to Australia’s east coast - https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/19/power... - March 19th, 2026
> Power prices on Australia’s east coast are predicted to fall from July because of increased output from wind generation and batteries, and falling electricity contract prices, with potential savings up to $1,320 for some small businesses. In a draft decision on Thursday, the Australia Energy Regulator (AER) proposed a price reduction for customers on standing electricity plans – known as the “default market offer” – of between 1.3% to 10.1% for residential customers, and between 8.5% and 21.2% for small businesses, depending on the region. Savage said reduced wholesale prices were the “biggest driver” behind the draft decision for 2026-27. “We’ve had lots more renewables come into the market. We’ve had good wind, solar and battery performance.” The draft determination also introduces the “solar sharer” offer, an opt-in plan that includes three hours of free power in the middle of the day to take advantage of abundant solar energy. The energy minister, Chris Bowen, said the idea was designed to share the benefits of Australia’s solar success. “For households that can shift some of their usage into the free power period, this can mean real savings on bills, whether that is running the dishwasher, doing the washing, or heating hot water during the day.”
Solar is so cheap and plentiful (as there is not yet enough battery storage on the network to time shift this power), they plan to give it away for free for ~3 hours/day in parts of the Australian NEM system.
Australia's renewables boom delivers coveted power price payoff - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australias-renew... - February 10th, 2026 ("Australia's wholesale electricity prices fell to the lowest in four years in 2025, bucking the rising price trends seen elsewhere and validating claims that renewables-heavy power system overhauls can help lower consumer power costs.")
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update - https://reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct-renewable-electrici... - January 29th, 2026
Big batteries oust gas in ‘transformational’ grid overhaul - https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/big-batteries-... - January 26th, 2026
Australia becomes world’s third-largest utility battery market - https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/10/21/australia-becomes-wor... - October 21st, 2025
Further data can confirm this at https://openelectricity.org.au/ (which has both carbon intensity and price data for all Australian electrical grids except the Northern Territory)
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#343Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It feels like this collective insanity will never end They simply do not believe that the consequences will be as bad as the models predict. And a lot of trust and good will has been expended on social issues, for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose, or to promote childhood reassignment surgery, etc. As a strategic decision, we have taken our eye off the ball, climate…
> for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose Ugh, I'm going to regret commenting here, but it really seems like this obsession is almost entirely on the right wing. In the US, the centrist Dems have been banging the appeasement drum for my entire political life, and it's gotten us nowhere. Like... the right isn't going to wake up and start caring about climate change if eve…
It is a distraction and a useful one for MAGA. Among the Democrats, we keep getting tripped up by it and nominate candidates who don't realize the political land mine that it is. I am for gender equality, for racial equality, for renewables, for nuclear energy. But please win the election by prioritizing talking about jobs, jobs, jobs, economic disopportunity, and naked corruption. After winning the election, then you can address gender issues along with the full slate of Democratic platform priorities.
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#344Earlier quoted context omitted.
Demand isn't static. Economics 101: if Europe taps new wells, global supply increases. Higher supply drives down prices. Lower prices induce more consumption. We wouldn't just be cleanly swapping imported fuel for domestic fuel 1:1; we'd be making it cheaper to burn more fossil fuels globally. The marginal emissions saved on shipping are completely wiped out by the net increase in total carbon burned. The only reason…
> long-term climate cost of burning that newly available fuel is still being passed on to the future. That’s not science. That’s wishful thinking. We can’t actually know the long term climate-costs of burning fossil fuels. It’s unfalsifiable. We don’t have a second identical Earth we can use as a control. Expending the fossil fuel supply today (months) reduces the impact of global oil / gas shocks to people suffering…
If they started right now, that would help with this current oil/ gas shock in the market? They wouldn't come online until far after this is over.
You know you're being disingenuous. This is not a discussion you're having in good faith so I'm going to just going to end it here.
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#345Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wind and solar are not "dependent" on natural gas plants. You can observe this quite well by simply building a wind or solar plant, connect a battery and a load. It works and it works well. Many national grids do not have enough renewable generation capacity to satisfy 100% demand at all times yet. When renewable generation is not sufficient, the difference is made up with generation from fossil-fueled thermal plants…
>Many national grids do not have enough renewable generation capacity to satisfy 100% demand at all times yet. When will it make sense for many countries? Because the difference between peak production and a winter dip for germany in let's say Berlin is enormous.
The good news is that going 100% renewable is probably less onerous than most people expect. If we get our act together politically, we can easily build the grids, generation, storage and intelligent loads required. With the exception of a few industrial processes, the technology is already existing and economically viable, but it also gets better and cheaper every year.
I never get why people are so opposed to renewables. In the past (and apparently present), we have spent multiples of what we’d need for 100% renewables on stupid wars. Now we could transform our economy with dramatic positive consequences even if we ignore climate change completely (think air quality and corresponding public health concerns, as well as political risks associated with fossil fuels).
It will be one of the breakthrough developments of human civilization and unlock tremendous potential, but people are concerned with the aesthetics of windmills and bickering about minor subsidies, while there is literally an economic crisis going on because some ships with liquified dinosaurs on boats can’t get to their destination on time …
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#346Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#347Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not true, you can get a cheap new EV, pricing for electric Dacia without subsidy starts from €16k. And used Zoe or i3 are really cheap.
That is still expensive versus traditional cars.
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#348Earlier quoted context omitted.
> long-term climate cost of burning that newly available fuel is still being passed on to the future. That’s not science. That’s wishful thinking. We can’t actually know the long term climate-costs of burning fossil fuels. It’s unfalsifiable. We don’t have a second identical Earth we can use as a control. Expending the fossil fuel supply today (months) reduces the impact of global oil / gas shocks to people suffering…
Your initial claim was that Europe should start opening more wells for domestic production. If they started right now, that would help with this current oil/ gas shock in the market? They wouldn't come online until far after this is over. You know you're being disingenuous. This is not a discussion you're having in good faith so I'm going to just going to end it here.
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#349Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Why did they ban combustion vehicles? Because they have no domestic fossil fuel supplies and the import cost was crushing them Your closing argument is that some far away land with no nat gas / oil reserves of their own isn’t convincing anyone with nat gas / oil reserves of their own. Europeans need inexpensive fuels to power their existing fleet or vehicles now . Ethiopia’s plan doesn’t generalise.
Europe has no choice but to lean into low carbon generation and EVs now, their hand is forced by geopolitical energy events outside of their control. These options are objectively cheaper than attempting to develop new domestic fossil resources. China will build every cheap EV Europe will buy if the EU cannot build them fast enough (citations on EU EV sales are in my comment you replied to), so buy them or experience…
But I think you're being too optimistic about what this means for global fossil fuel usage. Definitely over the next decade, but potentially over much longer periods than that.
Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence
#350Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Europe has no choice I’ve been following you for 13 years in this site, and I really expect more intellectually honest comments from you. You’re trying to tell us that developing new battery technology, new storage technology, deploying more wind / solar and replacing the entire European vehicle fleet, is cheaper than building new oil / gas infrastructure. I’m not buying it. Regarding the comment in my profile, I’v…
> I’ve been following you for 13 years in this site, and I really expect more intellectually honest comments from you. I believe the failure is on your part, not my part, as I am simply providing facts. Whether you agree with facts is beyond my control. They remain facts. You keep stating, inaccurately, that renewables and batteries are expensive, when they are the cheapest combined generation technology. This is wid…
I have the invoices from my electricity bills to prove my assertion.
I used to pay 12 cents per kilowatt hour, now I pay 36 cents or more. That’s a 300% increase for electricity prices vs, if I recall correctly, 26% for general inflation over the same 25 year period.
And you’re trying to tell me I’m wrong.
Why?
I’ll believe a drop in electricity prices when I see it.