This is such a lovely balanced thoughtful refreshingly hype-free post to read. 2025 really was the year when things shifted and many first-rate developers (often previously AI skeptics, as Mitchell was) found the tools had actually got good enough that they could incorporate AI agents into their workflows. It's a shame that AI coding tools have become such a polarizing issue among developers. I understand the reasons…
Architects went from drawing everything on paper, to using CAD products over a generation. That's a lot of years! They're still called architects. Our tooling just had a refresh in less than 3 years and it leaves heads spinning. People are confused, fighting for or against it. Torn even between 2025 to 2026. I know I was. People need a way to describe it from 'agentic coding' to 'vibe coding' to 'modern AI assisted s…
It therefore depends on where we place the discovery/availability of the product. If we place it at the time of prototype production (in the early 1960s for CAD), it took a generation (20-30 years), since by the early and mid-1990s, all professionals were already using CAD.
But if we place it at the time when CAD and personal computers became available to the general public (e.g., mid-1980s), it took no more than 5-10 years. I attended a technical school in the 1990s, and we started with hand drawing in the first two years and used CAD systems in the remaining three years of school.
The same can be said for AI. If we place the beginning of AI in the mid-1980s, the wider adoption of AI took more than a generation. If we place it at the time OpenAI developed GPT, it took 5-10 years.