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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

341–350 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#341

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

That is true, but it also goes well beyond that. Much of the "US Gov't behavior" is largely related to trashing and panicked frantic moves because the consequences of its prior and long tailed actions over decades has now not only started bearing rotten fruit, but a previous strategy of world domination through "globalism" has also turned against those who control the Wizard of the USA from behind the curtain. On the…

This is quite obviously written by someone with no intelligence experience.

> On the face of it the Greenland situation makes no sense on a national security level regarding a non-existent, fabricated Chinese or Russian threat, nor related to the fantastical grift of the "Golden Dome" that is even more useless against what Russia has recently developed, than it was for things prior to about 3 years ago.

Power projection in the arctic is weak. Russia has made multiple tactical movements towards soft projection in the arctic. You have zero idea what submarines are on station. Taking greenland is arguably stupid, boosting it's defense to prevent a Russian incursion is not.

> What we are looking at here (you can tell your children that you heard it here first) is a strategic move to essentially take Canada and all of the NA continent, and eventually all of the Americas. Yes, Canada, you are indeed in danger as well as Mexico. I don't see how it could be any other way in the face of current developments; remember Trumps USMCA, i.e., a de facto North American Union?

No evidence. Unless you're arguing while NAFTA was around this was a way to create a "United America".

> That also doe not take into account the Wizard of the USA wanting to take over all of South America for positive control eventually

No evidence. Most think-tanks have recognized that maintaining positive control of south america would be disastrous. If anything, Maduro and his friends were probably happy the US decided to black bag him. It is well known that whoever was going to attempt control over Venezuela in particular was going to be responsible for spending the money to rebuild it.

> These are real tabletop calculations and how things are seen at the top and discussed amidst cocktails

No.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#343

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

Currencies fundamentally relate to some trust. I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways. However it will provide incentive to move away from the dollar in the long-term, ie as Fareed Zakaria says "recent actions are accelerating the world to the multipolar future".

> I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways.

How is that different from trust erosion?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> easy to transfer from one party to another "Let me just set up my P2P connection to the Bitcoin network and pay mining fees and hope a miner validates the block" vs "Here's a bar of gold mate" Sure, real easy

> "Here's a bar of gold mate" Yeah, super convenient. Well worth it. I'll just go with gold bars on me to the market to buy lettuce.

Nobody is talking about using Bitcoin or gold for transactions. For which nobody does anyway. The whole discussion is about reserves.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#345
post #63

Also JPM in April 2025... JP Morgan see gold prices crossing $4,000/oz by Q2 2026 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jp-morgan-see-gold-prices-192...

It's $4700/oz today which is crazy.

And silver is $95 per ounce.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#346
post #285
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true. Some, like myself, love the idea of the shining city on the hill, although we often find the behavior of the actual city less than shining. I would like for the US to continue being a beacon of freedom where people can come and build great lives. But that is not the direction we are going, and one might reasonably forecast that no country can maintain indefinite dominance. Paul Kennedy wrote "The Rise and F…

> Not true. Some, like myself, love the idea of the shining city on the hill, although we often find the behavior of the actual city less than shining. Your first sentence says "not true". Your second sentence says "true". Your dislike of the current US regime/behavior causes you to forcast the decline of US influence. I'm not saying you should like current US behavior, just that there isn't good evidence for any dec…

Ignores the totally exceptional nature of some of the US changes/instabilities of this administration. I say "not true" because that is my read of where things are going, regardless of preferences.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#347
so nobody read the article and instead regurgitated pre-existing sentiment, while forgetting the golden rule of journalism:

if an article ends in a question mark, the answer is no.

> the greenback dominated 88% of traded FX volumes — close to record highs — while the Chinese yuan (CNY) made up just 7%, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

> Likewise, there is little sign of USD erosion in trade invoicing. “The share of USD and EUR has held steady over the past two decades at around 40–50%.

there is currently no other alternative to meet the global liquidity demands

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#348
post #297

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

>we know what a de-dollarized world looks like - imperialism Is this some kind of joke? Or is it only imperialism when other countries besides the US do it?

I know it's pretty common shorthand to describe American post-war interventions as "Imperialism". But Imperialism before Bretton-Woods was a very specific and intentional international policy - literally conquering and/or colonizing land to secure resources. Which is a bit different than America's "spheres of influence" thing today.

The two are very linked - the tacit agreement of the postwar order was for America to use its might to expand a common market on behalf of the shared benefit of NATO members. But the collapse of today's "American empire" does not mean the end of empires. If anything, the opposite: instead of one common international market, we will return to a 19th century scramble for land.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. People are actively trying to repair something which cannot be fixed. Now that the US century is over, the only way forward is for the US to use present military power as a cudgel. Given that the multipolar world is nigh, the only path forward is through. If America and her erstwhile allies are no longer aligned, then any attempt by America to repair this is doomed. Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only…

> Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only way forward. It's the DoD. Prior to Trump's actions, the American-led "world order" seemed to work, even if we couldn't get China to agree to a "Bretton Woods 2.0". Biden tried diplomacy with the EU. He tried to get them to agree to a renewed US-led world order, but it wasn't working. The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, w…

>The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU.

How so? What actions did the EU take?

You don't think the declaration of himself as dictator and the immediate threats against EU allies might have changed EU attitudes at all?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#350
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Iraq, Afghanistan, Grenada, Panama, Vietnam ... were not a problem? Ahistorical BS, I am sorry. As if Trump is a radical departure of NORMS. Euros were chanting HO HO HO CHI MIN in 1968 in the streets of Berlin and Paris. There is a long tradition of anti-American feelings outside the US, like with any hegemon. The global left had to build walls to keep their people IN, crush them with tanks, from Prague to Berli…

classic whataboutism if you don't think Trump is a departure from norms you aren't paying enough attention

I believe this is the correct response.

We're not going to debate the measuring stick when the stick itself is incapable of measuring the outcome.

In none of those scenarios provided did a sitting US president come close to insinuating acquisition of land by "hook or crook" - either agree with us or we take it.

The closest modern discussion that comes to mind is the PRC saying they could militarily "walk in and take the whole this afternoon" in regard to Hong Kong.

Thatcher, for all her wrongs, provided a salient response:

"There is nothing I could do to stop you, but the eyes of the world would now know what China is like."

The US has shown the world what we're like with the current administration.

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