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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#341

Post by Uvix »

bparsons wrote: post #212
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

Things aren't perfect in a lot of countries, but what is happening in the US right now is absolutely unique. Things are careening out of control, and the political system seems completely incapable of getting a handle on it. Most people I speak to in Canada, Europe and Central America seem perplexed why Americans they know do not seem more alarmed.

It’s not that we’re not alarmed, it’s that voters are unable to do anything about it for the next several months (if even then).

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#342

Post by andrewclunn »

"Were they absorbed by foreign exporters through lower export prices, or were they passed through to US importers and ultimately consumers?"

Go actually read the pdf. Their methodology conflates any and all price increases of foreign goods as being a burden bore upon Americans. No talk of purchasing habits changing towards domestic products. Nope. Oh and does it account for recent price increases across the board related to inflation? Nope. It (I would argue intentionally) does not control for that at all.

Pure propaganda from a foreign think tank to convince you to go back to policies where American exports got taxed, but theirs did not.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#343

Post by jkaplowitz »

riffraff wrote: post #302
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

I have a friend who works with american tourists visiting europe, mostly older folks, mostly to religious sights. They are, for the vast majority, indoctrinated beyond any chance of reasonable change of opinion. Talking with him makes _me_ worry about my own beliefs, because if these people can be so blind, maybe I am too.

The kind of older tourist visiting a foreign religious site is definitely going to be relatively indoctrinated regardless of their origin country. But yes, many Americans are indoctrinated. They also tend to be dominant in wide swaths of US geography and highly motivated by their indoctrinators to vote, thus maximizing their electoral impact.

Many other Americans are pretty open-minded to new facts, even today. Unfortunately this kind is relatively geographically concentrated in urban or academic communities, and many of them are also discouraged from voting by being fully aware of how desperate and hard-to-fix the US political situation is, thus minimizing their electoral impact.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#344

Post by benj111 »

igogq425 wrote: post #208
benj111 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Brit who studied history, the parallels to 1930s Germany are too strong for comfort. So I would suggest reading up on that for some answers. Although as the comparison hopefully makes clear, you worrying about tariffs is missing the point, it's more a question of basic democracy at this point. I'm also somewhat concerned about your (edit: as in the USs) new found lust for Lebensraum, because again, that went wel…

As a German, I am generally cautious about drawing hasty parallels with the Holocaust, but I must admit: now that you mention it, the Sturmabteilung and the Schutzstaffel probably began their work in the streets of the country in a similar way to ICE today. """ Sturmabteilung (SA) The SA was formed in 1921 as the paramilitary fighting organization of the NSDAP and protected party events. After 1933, under Ernst Röhm,…

I'm not drawing parallels to the holocaust per se. I don't think anyone in Germany voted for the mustachioed one expecting that. They had various grievances and wanted a 'strong' leader. The voting against democracy is the issue, not the thing that was voted for. The holocaust is just a very good example of why you shouldn't throw your principles out to vote for a 'strong' leader who will improve 'your' life.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#345

Post by dahart »

shaky-carrousel wrote: post #94
dahart wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t help that the person who imposed these tariffs was indeed claiming the cost would be borne by foreign countries, and the political party in power is repeating the claim ad nauseam on every channel imaginable. It’s a misleading claim, but OTOH the point of making imports more expensive for Americans is to push them to prefer US made products, and if that happens and imports go down then at some level it’s t…

It won't cost other countries because what is not sold to the US is sold everywhere else.

That’s certainly possible, but by no means guaranteed, right? If someone selling goods to the US is selling out (supply-limited) the rest of the global market might absorb the US share. But one might wonder if that was the case, why would they be selling to the US in the first place. I would, by default, assume that losing the US market reduces demand for any given non-US export, and the amount that it hurts depends on how big the US market was compared to the non-US market.

This isn’t the first time tariffs have been used in a country to push purchasing preferences. The problem is that it hurts them and it hurts us, it’s just a net economic drain and doesn’t effectively achieve the local economic boost that some want it to, especially in today’s global economy where trade has become so integral that we no longer produce many of the products we buy, and therefore tariffs can’t fix. “There is near unanimous consensus among economists that tariffs are self-defeating” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariff

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#346

Post by jedberg »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

> What were you thinking? What was going through your heads? I'm genuinely curious.

I know two people who voted for him.

Person one has voted Democrat her whole life. Has worked for the Democratic Party. Has a son who was a Democratic elected official. But she lives in Texas, and watches too much local news, and believed that murderous immigrants were pouring over the border, guns blazing, taking out innocent American citizens daily at the beach and grocery store. So she voted for him because she believed only he could stop this from happening.

Person two is a wealthy white boomer. His business already runs in America. He actually has an advanced degree in economics. He believed that the tariffs would only be used surgically by smart people to protect American business. He is not personally affected by any of the racist policies or any of the other shenanigans. So he voted for him because he liked the protectionist and tax cut policies.

He regrets his vote. I haven't spoken to her in months because she stopped talking to me when I kept show her that her "facts" were made up.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#347

Post by watwut »

rawgabbit wrote: post #250
nathan_compton wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy this - Harris had a big bump in the polls as soon as she entered the race and I think she could have won if she had offered voters anything . This bullshit that American's won't vote for a woman is just an excuse not to run women and to deflect blame towards a culture war issue and away from the fact that the democrats don't actually have popular policies. I voted for Harris, I even canvased for her, but…

She lost for the same reason Hillary lost. She came across as Marie Antoinette. Oblivious to the anger of the working class. Touting how great the economy was going and ignoring the resentment felt by those who believed the “liberal elite” betrayed them.

Frankly, bullshit. This was not about working class in the slightest. Working class as such supported and voted for democrats. The thing is, women are working class too, not just men. And farmers are frequently effectively rich owners - in unstable business bu owning a lot.

This was about all thosw isms and hierarchies we pretended dont exisr anymore.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#348

Post by carlosjobim »

jcims wrote: post #58
sensanaty wrote: post #13

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

There's been this phrase 'passing costs off to the consumer' that I've heard since I was a kid, used as some kind of indictment against companies raising prices when their costs go up. Even as a kid I was confused. Where else is the money going to come from?

You as a consumer buy my cookies for $10.

Out of that price: $3 goes to production cost, $3 goes to tariffs, and $4 goes to profits.

Now the taxes/tariffs are doubled. The producer can up their price to $13, meaning $3 to production, $6 to tariffs and $4 to profit.

But customers might not accept any price higher than $10. They won't buy.

So instead you continue selling for $10 and your costs are: $3 for production, $6 for tariffs and $1 in profit.

That's what people mean when they say that companies are paying the tariffs. They're not profiting as much as before.

In practice it's usually a mix of higher consumer prices, lower company profits, or even some products not being imported anymore.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#349

Post by cs02rm0 »

I think there's an implicit assumption here that because Americans pay the costs of tariffs it means there isn't a knock on impact (where for instance goods from other countries aren't bought, in preference of US local goods), in turn affecting the other economy. And that therefore Trump's tariff plays are without impact, whereas I'm not convinced that is the case.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#350

Post by loehnsberg »

mothballed wrote: post #161
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

Well when we look at rational economic policies take a look at top ~10 in terms of GDP, purchase parity adjusted, per capita: monaco, liechtenstein, singapore, luxembourg, ireland, macau, qatar, bermuda, norway, switzerland Monarchy: monaco, liechtenstein, qatar One party state w/ elections: singapore, macau direct democracy: switzerland represented democracy: Norway, Bermuda, Ireland, Luxembourg Multi-party represen…

This is a perfect example of how to lie with statistics. All of these countries are either tax havens or oil-rich economies, apart from half of them having the population of a small city. The economic policy implemented by any of these countries cannot be implemented by a large economy with little or no natural resources, or would you recommend to Germany or Japan to just "HAVE" oil or open their banks as offshore foreign accounts?
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