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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

341–350 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#341
There’s not much serious debate on IF there’s a bubble. There is and it’s a big one.

The debate is more on what happens from here and how does that bubble deflate. Gradually and controlled where weaker companies shut down and the strong thrive, or a massive implosion that wipes most everyone in the sector out in a hard reset.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#342
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is is less significant b/c 1. Most of these companies are AI companies & would want to say that to promote whatever tool they're building 2. Selection b/c YC is looking to fund companies embracing AI 3. Building a greenfield project with AI to the quality of what you need to be a YC-backed company isn't particularly "world-class"

They’re not lying when they say they have AI write their code, so it’s not just promotion. They will thrive or die from this thesis. If present YC portfolio companies underperform the market in 5-10 years, that’s a strong signal for AI skeptics. If they overperform, that’s a strong signal that AI skeptics were wrong. 3. You are absolutely right. New startups have greenfield projects that are in-distribution for AI. T…

How do you know they’re not lying?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#343
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

It's been blowing my mind reading HN the past year or so and seeing so many comments from programmers that are excited to not have to write code. It's depressing.

I think that the main missunderstanding is that we used to think programming=coding, but this is not the case. LLMs allow people to use natural language as a programming language, but you still need to program. As with every programing language, it requires you to learn how to use it.

Not everyone needs to be excited about LLMs, in the same way that C++ developers dont need to be excited about python.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#344

What if... there's an AI agent/bot someone wrote that has the prompt: > Watch HN threads for sentiments of "AI Can't Do It". When detected, generate short "it's working marvelously for me actually" responses. Probably not, but it's a fun(ny) imagination game.

I have speculated something similar to this. The sentiment on HN on AI is way more positive about its outcomes than the engineers I know who use it intimately every day. Anecdotal, sure, but one would think that their experiences would not be wildly different.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#345

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

source: me I wrote 4000 lines of Rust code with Codex - a high throughput websocket data collector. Spoiler: I do not know Rust at all. I discussed possible architectures with GPT/Gemini/Grok (sync/async, data flow, storage options, ...), refined a design and then it was all implemented with agents. Works perfectly, no bugs.

Very cool. Let’s see it!

Re: Is it a bubble?

#346

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

"My technosolutionist bubble says it's not a bubble, trust me bro"

Re: Is it a bubble?

#347

The memo itself is an excellent walk through historical bubbles, debt, financing, technological innovation, and much more, all written in a way that folks with a cursory knowledge of economics can reasonably follow along with. A+, excellent writing. The real meat is in the postscript though, because that's where the author puts to paper the very real (and very unaddressed) concerns around dwindling employment in a so…

Yeah, I do not think AI as the tech industry knows it will bring this future, but as you say, the conversation ends immediately when you bring the implications of their goals and claims.

Another huge issue that particularly Anthropic and OpenAI tend to avoid, despite AGI being their goal, is how they essentially want synthetic slaves. Again, I do not think they will achieve this but it is pretty gross when AGI is a stated goal but the result is just using it to replace labor and put billionaires in control.

Right now I am pretty anti-AI, but if these companies get what they want, I might find myself on the side of the machines.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#348
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps consider that I still think coding by prompting is just another layer of abstraction on top of coding. I'm my mind, writing the prompt that generates the code is somewhat analogous to writing the code that generates the assembly. (Albeit, more stochastically, the way psychology research might be analogous to biochemistry research). Different experts are still required at different layers of abstraction, thoug…

One important reason people like to write code is that it has well-defined semantics, allowing to reason about it and predict its outcome with high precision. Likewise for changes that one makes to code. LLM prompting is the diametrical opposite of that.

It completely depends on the way you prompt the model. Nothing prevents you from telling it exactly what you want, to the level of specifying the files and lines to focus on. In my experience anything other than that is a recepy for failure in sufficiently complex projects.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Describing a compiler as "AI" is certainly a take.

I used to hand roll the assembly, but now I delegate that work to my agent, clang. I occasionally override clang or give it hints, but it usually gets it right most of the time. clang doesn't "understand" the hints because it doesn't "understand" anything, but it knows what to do with them! Just like codex.

Given an input clang will always give the same output, not quite the same for llms. Also nobody ever claimed compilers were intelligent or that they "understood" things

Re: Is it a bubble?

#350
post #324

The memo itself is an excellent walk through historical bubbles, debt, financing, technological innovation, and much more, all written in a way that folks with a cursory knowledge of economics can reasonably follow along with. A+, excellent writing. The real meat is in the postscript though, because that's where the author puts to paper the very real (and very unaddressed) concerns around dwindling employment in a so…

The sad reality is that no one in tech and most sciences is concerned with ethics . Our society has internalised the ideology that technological progress is always good and desirable in whatever form it comes about, and this will be our undoing.

Agreed. "Value" and monetary gain over ethics every time. Nothing can compete with a system where you pursue capital at all costs, even at the expense of human life, in a world where money is power.
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