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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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341–350 of 668 posts

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#341

Every bubble looks obvious in hindsight. The dot-com crash left behind Amazon and Google. The crypto crash left behind Coinbase and a few real revenue generating companies. If this is the AI bubble, then the survivors are going to look very obvious in a decade, we just don’t know which ones yet.

But google and amazon were obvious to those in the know, in terms of what they delivered. S Jobs called it back in 1995-97 - he referred to it as shopping for information and shopping for good and services. Nobody has this crystal clear, tangible vision re. LLMs. Nobody at all. That is a big problem. I found the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqSfFcaluHc&t=1700s

Because LLMs are a technology, not a business.

Ultimately it doesn't matter who survives the AI bubble, because they are all more or less equivalent, proposing the same technical solution.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The crypto crash left behind Coinbase and a few real revenue generating companies. A lot of us clocked the crypto bullshit waaaay before the crash.

Crypto isn't bullshit well most of it is but the utility is still used by millions of people around the world, specifically USDT and USDC which they proven a good way to move your assets without too much regulations.

So it is regulatory arbitrage. I think many of the critics never contested that crypto is good for doing crime. The critics just also think that either those crimes should continue to be prevented via the financial system or the financial system should be deregulated for all without a crypto backdoor.

A Money Market Fund gives you interest if you are able to access it.

This is kind of a pattern:

1. There is some regulation that is inefficient ( e.g. taxi medallions, KYC, copyright protection ...)

2. New technology comes about which allows startups to claim that they have invented a new area that should be regulated differently

3. Turns out (2) is not true and new technology can easily be mapped to existing regulation but it would look bad for the regulator to take away the punchbowl

4. There is some down-turn (bubble pops) and the regulator takes away the punchbowl OR investors have accumulated so much money/power that they corrupt the government to have new rules for their businesses

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or use any of the wonders of military technology invented in the last 200 years to take back society. These fuckers have lived in prosperity for so long that they don't even think it is possible. But so many people throughout history thought they were untouchable until the masses decided they had enough of their shit. Kings with professional armies, full plate knights, men with cannons, mens with guns, machine guns,…

When unrest happens the military sides with the ones that give better hopes of keeping the stream of money that funds the army flowing. It sides with the poor only if the powerful (gov) are hopelessly inept at gathering money. If there's a chance that current civilian power can reform and keep collecting the money from the people and funding the army then the army sides with them and help quell the rebellion. Those w…

Not always .. see the peasants revolt of 1381, French Revolution in 1789-1793, Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, etc.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does it mean in practice to have energy instead of money as currency? People would still want to be able to trade with lower friction than lugging batteries around, so don't you just re-invent money on top of it? orrrrrr just keep having the current money around the whole time? -- The general limiting factor with the "one person controls the replicators, only they have income" idea is that they would rapidly los…

> What does it mean in practice to have energy instead of money as currency? Something like Bitcoin. When the progress in miners efficiency stalls any kWh of energy not used for something else will be used to make some amount of bitcoins. If you have energy you can make btc. If you have btc you can give your btc to someone in exchange for their energy so that they give you their energy, instead of using it to mine bi…

That just seems very wasteful when proof-of-stake works.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#345
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The writing is a mandatory part of the learning process. Outsourcing it to tools is skipping and cheating. Nothing new here. It was the same when the tool was your buddy or upwork before LLMs. Banning advanced graph calculators on undergrad math exams is not because "they don't want to use new tools", either.

The sad difference that makes a difference is that banning graphing calculators from proctored exams is enforceable in practice. Appealing to honor is a partial solution at best. Cheating is a problem at West Point, let alone the majority of places with a less disciplined culture. It's sad, but true. The fact that you and I would never cheat on exams simply does not generalize. https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-arm…

I dont see anything reason at all to expect West Point to have less cheating then anywhere else. Army people dont commit crimes less then civilians either.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't want that, because it could lead to an uprising against them. They want us provided with the essentials in exchange for being dutiful workers, so we have something to lose. Everyone should live in pods stacked together, eat insects, not drive our own automobiles around or fly places, we should be able to get our entertainment and everything to keep ourselves happy from their subscription entertainment s…

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I have agency and I'm very happy with my lot. I'm not "blaming" anybody for anything. But unlike you I am not in a naive infantile delusion about what the ruling class are and want and work toward.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so?

Thought experiment - Startrek replicators are real. This basically means almost everything can be built without human involvement. The guy who owns the replicators is the richest. The wealth gap is so massive you get revolts (because we're educated, not serfs, right?) So then government needs to step in. Either tax->ubi?, socialize it, or make it a state asset? Regardless, that's the goal of AGI/robotics/etc.

The world of Star Trek was fully post scarcity. Rich/poor were not things that existed.

They had to get through this before things got better: https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Bell_Riots

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, that’s the source of the point. The effort is in finding a way to make it easy to convey. Communication of an idea is almost as critical as its verification now.

I just need to read it one of these days. I keep reading parts of it but never sitting down with it.

Oh hell, don’t make me feel bad. I’ve got a meager capacity to trudge through major papers. I cheer you on.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people.

It will not benefit the rich as disproportionately as the covid pandemic did.

I can’t speak for others countries but here in the UK special “VIP lanes” were used to steal billions using fraudulent PPE contracts.

I’m not just talking about Baroness Mone either. PPE Medpro was the tip of the iceberg.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#350
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately labour goes and works on something else instead. And the availability of free labour makes that possible. New industries and markets develop as a result. But a huge number of people will be left behind. But people will focus on things that were a lower priority before.

I have bad news for you, we've run out of sectors to pretend labor could be funneled towards. Manufacturing and agriculture are highly automated, service industry is full tf up, and nobody can afford more construction.

What about medical, elder care, fitness, leisure. Even service industries that focus on a more human connection. Or jobs focused on nature, the environment etc.

And i don't think this would nbe an easy process or something that could or would be managed. But it is probably already happening.

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