Every bubble looks obvious in hindsight. The dot-com crash left behind Amazon and Google. The crypto crash left behind Coinbase and a few real revenue generating companies. If this is the AI bubble, then the survivors are going to look very obvious in a decade, we just don’t know which ones yet.
But google and amazon were obvious to those in the know, in terms of what they delivered. S Jobs called it back in 1995-97 - he referred to it as shopping for information and shopping for good and services. Nobody has this crystal clear, tangible vision re. LLMs. Nobody at all. That is a big problem. I found the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqSfFcaluHc&t=1700s
Ultimately it doesn't matter who survives the AI bubble, because they are all more or less equivalent, proposing the same technical solution.