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Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

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Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#341

I'm generally an AI skeptic, but it seems awfully early to make this call. Aside from the obvious frontline support, artist, junior coder etc, a whole bunch of white collar "pay me for advice on X" jobs (dietician, financial advice, tax agent, etc), where the advice follows set patterns only mildly tailored for the recipient, seem to be severely at risk. Example: I recently used Gemini for some tax advice that would…

It can’t replace a human for support, it is not even close to replacing a junior developer. It can’t replace any advice job because it lies instead of erroring. As an example if you want diet advice, it can lie to you very convincingly so there is no point in getting advice from it. Main value you get from a programmer is they understand what they are doing and they can take the responsibility of what they are develo…

> It can’t replace a human for support,

It doesn't have to. It can replace having no support at all.

It would be possible to run a helpdesk for a free product. It might suck but it could be great if you are stuck.

Support call centers usually work in layers. Someone to pick up the phone who started 2 days ago and knows nothing. They forward the call to someone who managed to survive for 3 weeks. Eventually you get to talk to someone who knows something but can't make decisions.

It might take 45 minutes before you get to talk to only the first helper. Before you penetrate deep enough to get real support you might lose an hour or two. The LLM can answer instantly and do better than tortured minimum wage employees who know nothing.

There may be large waves of similar questions if someone or something screwed up. The LLM can do that.

The really exciting stuff will come where the LLM can instantly read your account history and has a good idea what you want to ask before you do. It can answer questions you didn't think to ask.

This is specially great if you've had countless email exchanges with miles of text repeating the same thing over and over. The employee can't read 50 pages just to get up to speed on the issue, if they had the time you don't so you explain again for the 5th time that delivery should be on adress B not A and be on these days between these times unless it are type FOO orders.

Stuff that would be obvious and easy if they made actual money.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in the coming few years on the question whether or not to change your tires, a suggestions for shops in your area will come with a recommendation to change them. Do you think you would trust the outcome?

Why do you think that's not a problem today when you ask a car mechanic?

My mechanic takes a video of a tire tread depth gauge being inserted into each wheel and reports the values, when doing the initial inspection and tests before every oil change.

It's something that can be empirically measured instead of visually guessed at by a human or magic eight-ball. Using a tool that costs only a few dollars, no less, like the pressure gauge you should already keep in your glovebox.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#345
I believe LLMs will create more jobs than it eliminated by raising standards in various fields, including software development.

We will have to get to 100% test coverage and document everything and add more bells and whistles to UI etc. The day to day activity may change but there will always be developers.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#346
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an example if you want diet advice, it can lie to you very convincingly so there is no point in getting advice from it. How exactly is this different from getting advice from someone who acts confidently knowledgeable? Diet advice is an especially egregious example, since I can have 40 different dieticians give me 72 different diet/meal plans with them saying 100% certainty that this is the correct one. It's bad…

> Trust but verify is still a good rule here I wouldn't have a clue how to verify most things that get thrown around these days. How can I verify climate science? I just have to trust the scientific consensus (and I do). But some people refuse to trust that consensus, and they think that by reading some convincing sounding alternative sources they've verified that the majority view on climate science is wrong. The sa…

Ironic, but keep asking LLMs till you can connect it to your "known truth" knowledge. For many topics I spend ~15-60 mins on various topics asking for details, questioning any contradictory answers, verifying assumptions to get what feels right answer. I talked with them for topics varying from democracy-economy, irrational number proofs and understanding rainbows.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#347
post #313

The thing about AI is that it doesn't work, you can't build on top of it, and it won't get better. It doesn't work: even for the tiny slice of human work that is so well defined and easily assessed that it is sent out to freelancers on sites like Fiverr, AI mostly can't do it. We've had years to try this now, the lack of any compelling AI work is proof that it can't be done with current technology. You can't build on…

> [LLMs] won't get any better.

Can you pinpoint the date which LLMs stagnated?

More broadly, it appears to me that LLMs have improved up to and including this year.

If you consider LLMs to not have improved in the last year, I can see your point. However, then one must consider ChatGPT 4.5, Claude 3.5, Deepseek, and Gemini 2.5 to not be improvements.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#348
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Resume-sending is a great example: if everyone's blasting out AI-generated applications and companies are using AI to filter them, the whole "application" process collapses into meaningless busywork

No, the whole process is revealed to be meaningless busywork. But that step has been taken for a long time, as soon as automated systems and barely qualified hacks were employed to filter applications. I mean, they're trying to solve a hard and real problem, but those solutions are just bad at it.

[deleted]

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#349
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give an example of an everyday person search that generates a majority of AI slop? If anything my frustration with google search comes from it being much harder to find niche technical information, because it seems google has turned the knobs hard towards "Treat search queries like they are coming from the average user, so show them what they are probably looking for over what they are actually looking for."

Basically any product comparison or review for example.

Let's try "samsung fridge review". The top results are a reddit thread, consumer reports article, Best Buy listing, Quora thread and some YouTube videos by actual humans.

Where is this slop you speak of?

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