Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

Post by ahazred8ta » Thu, Jan 30, 2025, 5:50 PM UTC

potamic wrote: post #281

ahazred8ta wrote: post #200

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You are slightly mistaken. There have been hit-and-run asteroids that entered the upper atmosphere and skipped through. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Great_Daylight_Fireball The Grand Teton Meteor / The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972 came within 35 miles of the surface. A huge iron meteor might survive a low pass but this would be a very rare event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Earth-grazing_firebal..…

In 1972, someone happened to have a camera when this passed by and captured an absolutely gorgeous shot with the Tetons in the backdrop. https://www.gardenofmemory.net/the-great-daylight-fireball-o...

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 30, 2025, 5:57 PM UTC

devoutsalsa wrote: post #260

ortusdux wrote: post #71

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Comparable in energy to a B-53 nuclear bomb, minus the radiation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B53_nuclear_bomb

What I just learned from ChatGPT… Asteroids mostly contain the same naturally radioactive elements we find in Earth's rocks - mainly potassium, uranium, and thorium in very small amounts. When they hit Earth, they don't typically create radiation hazards. Scientists have checked out famous impact sites like Meteor Crater in Arizona and found normal radiation levels. While impacts can briefly create some radioactive i…

Post by jaco6 » Thu, Jan 30, 2025, 6:11 PM UTC

crazygringo wrote: post #318

elif wrote: post #313

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But in any case, we certainly have the logistics to move populations given the timeline. Not everyone has to evacuate and return within a 3 day window. Even without incentives, in all likelihood, those who can will evacuate early for peace of mind, and as the prediction becomes more certain on its approach through measurement, individuals will I'm sure even start to return /before/ the pass. You know everyone has the…

No, we don't. Even if we had three years to move everyone from one side of the earth to the other and could handle the transportation, and then another three years to move them back, how are you going to keep them fed? We're just going to double our food infrastructure on half of the world? Where do we house them for several years? We're going to double our housing? How are we going to find all those people jobs to s…

Post by nayuki » Thu, Jan 30, 2025, 6:50 PM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #207

dreamcompiler wrote: post #204

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An 8 MT impact on the Moon is what the Moon calls "Tuesday." It has dealt with far, far worse. The impact probably wouldn't even be visible with the naked eye unless it hits a part of the Moon not then illuminated by the Sun -- in which case one might see a brief flash of light.

Because I was curious and had no idea about the relative size of meteors that hit the moon, the one that hit the moon in 2013 and was captured by Spanish astronomers was traveling at 65k KPH and weighed about 400kg. That had an impact energy of 15 tons of TNT ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=perqv4qByaI&t=1s ) Safe to say, an 8 megaton impact from one that weighs 220,000,000kg would be a bit more substantial! Appare…

Post by dylan604 » Thu, Jan 30, 2025, 7:09 PM UTC

maushu wrote: post #206

dylan604 wrote: post #192

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The accuracy issue is the thing. I’d venture a guess that our prediction of the path of a hurricane 7 days out is more accurate than predicting where an impact will be.

It's actually the opposite. Calculating an asteroid impact is much easier because it primarily involves basic Newtonian physics. In contrast, the climate is a chaotic system, making long-term predictions far more complex.