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Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

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Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#341

Post by janalsncm »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #303
Dalewyn wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump won both the electoral and popular votes and won all the swing states. The Republicans took both Houses of Congress and held all governorships up for election. Yes, he won by a landslide and the biggest factor was the bad economy.

The factor was calling the economy a bad economy, they are already backtracking on promises since the economy is doing pretty well already and they won’t be able to juice it much more. Anyone who thinks 49.9% of the vote (vs 48.4%) is a landslide will quickly find them in negative approval ratings if they think that gives them much political capital (if trump focuses and spending rather than earning capital, that is,…

I think the problems with the economy (consolidation, corporate/private equity power, general inequality) are too big for any administration to fix even assuming they would want to. But yeah GDP and unemployment rate are fairly misleading metrics.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#342

Post by mangamadaiyan »

Dalewyn wrote: post #309
jasdi wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of the biggest reasons why China or India are threat to the West. Because their Engineers are constantly in situations were they have to work with much less resources. And they come up with stuff that constantly surprises people for being much cheaper. The western reaction is to then go and buy them out. Its not going to work forever. They have already taken over large swathes of the tech landscape. Even…

For how much we all bitch about beancounters, I'm kind of surprised that beancounters haven't managed to convince management to buy bottom-of-the-barrel Celeron laptops for software developers. Make those fucking assholes use the hardware of the people instead of some monstrosity with a 256 cores CPU and 48 TB of RAM and 24 exabytes of enterprise SSD and an RTX Cinco Grande connected via optical fiber to the Amazonfl…

It should be possible to achieve the same end by forcing management to use the "hardware of the people", getting them to do nontrivial on-call duty frequently, and making them dogfood what they make.

The real fucking assholes are the ones that enable the fucking assholes you refer to.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#344

Post by sangnoir »

jstummbillig wrote: post #337
sangnoir wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if it prevents large scale transaction then it it is achieved its goal. It doesn't prevent the transactions, it only makes them more expensive than they would have been otherwise. If the the US was able to covertly buy enough titanium from the USSR for the SR-71 program, China can buy the latest GPUs if it believes AI competence is in its national interests. Oh look, there's sudden demand for H100s of by dozens of…

> doesn't prevent the transactions, it only makes them more expensive This boils down to the same thing in a market economy. If the price is too high, that prevents the transaction.

I understand all that - my point is the price is nowhere close to being too high for what's (allegedly) at stake according to AGI zealots, not to mention where the Chinese government sees the role of China world affairs in the coming decades. Hell, I even ball-parked the all-in landed price to at most 2x Nvidia's MSRP.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#345

Post by Zefiroj »

iepathos wrote: post #171
nsoonhui wrote: post #13

I find that the gushing around deepseek is fascinating to watch. To me there are a few structural and fundamental reasons why deepseek can never outperform other models by a wide margin. On par maybe--as we reach the diminishing returns with our investment in the models, but not win by a wide margin. 1. The US trade war with china which will place deepseek compute availability at disadvantages, eventually, if we ever…

I find the open source argument pretty weak. Linux is open source but is more used in production than windows, macos, or any other operating system by far and very arguably out-performs them. The very nature of being open source does not mean proprietary alternatives pick up all the benefits and being open source it is free and easily moddable which appeals to many of the best engineers who can drive the innovation f…

Linux excels at drivers and device support. The actual kernel is nowhere near as good as its competitors.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#346

Post by fakedang »

kayewiggin wrote: post #137
fakedang wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was of the same viewpoint as you - just look at the militaries! Except in today's world, being a military power is increasingly less relevant after a certain point, while economic supremacy is increasingly gaining prominence. While the West is content with self-platitudes for their "democracy", China has been building strong relationships with a number of countries looking to implement the "China-model", a capitali…

> China has been building strong relationships with a number of countries Number of irrelevant countries. US's allies are Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, etc. 80% of the world's wealth. and 95% of the world's top technologies. > guess where these countries are buying their drones from Soon, not China. China Is Cutting Off Drone Supplies Critical to Ukraine War Effort [1]. China is repor…

On the former point, all the wealthy countries are in team USA, although team USA seems intent on shooting itself on the foot multiple times.

Team China is not as tight as team USA, but has a number of strings it can pull with its members. These are countries that, while not prosperous themselves, provide the raw material for most of the West's industries. A lot of critical resources are often only found in these countries. Not to mention, they have often aligned against USA gang in most cases, at the UN, while also aligning with China. Look at how many countries have signed public declarations stating that the Uighur camps in China don't exist/don't repress Uighurs.

On the second point, the article only states that China is cutting Ukrainian drone supplies to supply Russia instead - that's exactly the danger the West should be worried about. China also supplies an increasing number of armaments to partner countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Egypt. Needless to say, China is currently the world's largest exporter of military UAVs.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#347

Post by Brybry »

Dalewyn wrote: post #300
selimthegrim wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Landslide? Electorally?

Trump won both the electoral and popular votes and won all the swing states. The Republicans took both Houses of Congress and held all governorships up for election. Yes, he won by a landslide and the biggest factor was the bad economy.

2020 election: Biden 51.3% 81.2 million (302 electoral), Trump 46.8% 74.2 million (232 electoral). Democrats control of House (but lost 13 seats) and quasi-control of Senate (gained 3 seats).

2024 election: Trump 49.7% 77.3 million (312 electoral), Harris 48.4% 75 million (226 electoral). Republicans control of House (but lost 1 seat) and control of Senate (gained 4 seats).

1972 election: Nixon 60.7% 47.2 million (520 electoral), McGovern 37.5% 29.2 million (17 electoral). Democrats control of House (but lost 13 seats) and control of Senate (gained 2 seats).

1984 election: Reagan 58.8% 54.5 million (525 electoral), Mondale 40.6% 37.6 million (13 electoral). Democrats control of House (but lost 16 seats). Republicans control of Senate (but lost 2 seats).

Source: many Wikipedia links

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#348

Post by kopirgan »

jasdi wrote: post #298
Dalewyn wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoever are downvoting this really don't understand that expanding a congested highway merely widens the congestion instead of alleviating it. Software today require several dozen gigabytes of RAM and two dozen CPU cores just to render some simple fucking text because everyone has several dozen gigabytes of RAM and two dozen CPU cores.

This is one of the biggest reasons why China or India are threat to the West. Because their Engineers are constantly in situations were they have to work with much less resources. And they come up with stuff that constantly surprises people for being much cheaper. The western reaction is to then go and buy them out. Its not going to work forever. They have already taken over large swathes of the tech landscape. Even…

Think it's not simple China or India issue. Even in those countries, new gen kids grow up with too much not too little, depending of course on who their dads are.

Even with latest hardware, there must be incentives to optimise on size, memory, CPU time etc. But given natural tendency, we just optimise on what's the rarest of them all - time to market. Get it shipping fast.

I was once in a training (as new consultant) for software, the instructor, an old fashioned guy said quit using the mouse learn the keyboard shortcuts - your customer is watching you. He was damn right cos years later, I realised so many customers did remark, how do you do that so fast? To this day, running some command in Excel (say) access Name manager, I use kB shortcut that hasn't changed in decades. I frankly even lost track of where to find them in the menu bar.

Simple things but powerful. Do with less.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#349

Post by kopirgan »

jl6 wrote: post #339
Dalewyn wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoever are downvoting this really don't understand that expanding a congested highway merely widens the congestion instead of alleviating it. Software today require several dozen gigabytes of RAM and two dozen CPU cores just to render some simple fucking text because everyone has several dozen gigabytes of RAM and two dozen CPU cores.

The bloat is real, but it’s not all bloat. We ask for a lot more from our software today. Simple example: rendering text isn’t that simple when we expect full Unicode support. It’s not altogether different from how everything seems to be much more expensive than it was in the 1950s. There are many real and concerning reasons for that, but one less concerning reason is that we have higher standards and expectations no…

I really would like to know what's good bloat and bad bloat like they say with Taliban.

To give a random example, Apache http server for windows is less than 12mb download. I used to download Oracle's http which I'm told is based on that, but that's like 1GB++ haven't checked in recent years.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#350

Post by kopirgan »

jasdi wrote: post #298
Dalewyn wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoever are downvoting this really don't understand that expanding a congested highway merely widens the congestion instead of alleviating it. Software today require several dozen gigabytes of RAM and two dozen CPU cores just to render some simple fucking text because everyone has several dozen gigabytes of RAM and two dozen CPU cores.

This is one of the biggest reasons why China or India are threat to the West. Because their Engineers are constantly in situations were they have to work with much less resources. And they come up with stuff that constantly surprises people for being much cheaper. The western reaction is to then go and buy them out. Its not going to work forever. They have already taken over large swathes of the tech landscape. Even…

One area where I'll be worried about China (not sure India as it's following USA in many ways) is they needn't spend time, resources on ensuring political compliance. Maybe yes in a different sense but not in the same sense as in returning "correct" answers for questions. We saw that with Google.

That should knock God knows how many GPU cycles, time and training of models.

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