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Bitcoin is over $100k

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Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#341
post #323
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Congrats to the people who held through thick and thin, I speculate (my own opinion) that we will likely not see 80% drawdowns anymore due to all the institutional money that flew in, just “standard” 40-50% dips. Fantastic to witness, an asset class out of thin air. There was some person who invested $30 everyday in BTC since 2017, and has $1 million right now. The tweet had gone viral on Twitter. BTC bull/bear cyc…

> There was some person who invested "Invested" is a generous way to put it. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/compare-inve...

I sometime use the word invested in the context of Bitcoin, but I don't really think of it as an investment. I don't know what a better word to use would be though. I think calling it gambling is needlessly antagonistic.

I don't know if I would even consider buying an NFT of a pointless thing gambling. There is a misguided expectation that just because it has a price tag it has value. The actual perceived value(as in market price) increasing reinforces that viewpoint, but it is an artifact of a pool of misguided people that has not been exhausted.

The point is, these people have an expectation of an increase in value. For most gambling there are two categories. The most skilled wins, and the House wins. There is no rising tide raising all boats. Believing that simply getting on the bandwagon of gambling will make you money is outright delusional.

'Investing' in NFTs, I feel is distinct because it relies on the sincere belief of a false premise. Participants believe that neither skill nor luck is a requirement and just being in the game is sufficient.

Coming back to Bitcoin, I think there are multiple levels of expectation based upon multiple premises. The premise that Bitcoin, one day, replaces money. I don't think you can say this is outright false, merely quite unlikely. Others believe that Bitcoin will, at least, retain it's value. This premise is on sturdier ground but also not certain.

You could think of this as skill-based form of gambling if you think that the skill is in the ability to more accurately determine the truth of the premises. That puts it in the same field as a high risk investment though.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#342
post #341
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was some person who invested "Invested" is a generous way to put it. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/compare-inve...

I sometime use the word invested in the context of Bitcoin, but I don't really think of it as an investment. I don't know what a better word to use would be though. I think calling it gambling is needlessly antagonistic. I don't know if I would even consider buying an NFT of a pointless thing gambling. There is a misguided expectation that just because it has a price tag it has value. The actual perceived value(as in…

I agree with your points but I think that the attributes of gambling you described can also be applied to bitcoin pretty well:

- The most skilled wins: btc participants probably believe they're appying skill (with a heavy dose of luck) to know when to get in and get out of bitcoin. after all $1 million in btc is only useful if at some future time you can do something with it ("cash out").

- Believing that simply getting on the bandwagon of gambling will make you money is outright delusional: this sounds like a pretty accurate description of crypto "investing" as a whole.

> The premise that Bitcoin, one day, replaces money

If that happens, how many btc will it take to buy a toyota? Nobody knows. Sure, USD may be worthless one day, or it may take $1 billion USD to buy a pencil. But (most) crypto investors weren't "investing" in USD before, the were using it as a stand-in for things of real value.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did it fail at being P2P e-cash? You can use bitcoin completely/as anonymously as cash if you wanted to, the same way you’d have to put in a bit of effort to have a completely anonymous cash transaction. Monero (XMR) which is a fork of bitcoin, is much closer to actual cash

Monero is fine. But how can you even use bitcoin anonymously now? Even wasabi and samourai wallet are shut down as far as i know. Seems highly risky to use any tool like that since i dont know what the consequences will be in the future. Joinmarket? I'm sure it is possible but it is error-prone, takes so much effort, time and fees that i see it as a failure

A very easy anonymous way is to simply use a self custody wallet like Exodus.

You can buy ETH, then you can use a TOR crypto exchange to swap it from ETH -> BTC into your wallet.

Just an idea though

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#344

I remember when people used to first talk about Bitcoin on HN back in early 2011 or so. The price was only $2 then. Congrats to anyone who had some and held onto it this long - personally I sold off mine in 2015 (big mistake in hindsight).

Yep I was here when the whole HN mania was so against BTC. I was firmly bogleheads and was still a broke phd student. In hindsight if I just gambled with little money I have I might be set for life. But Don't know if I could have held till 100K.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What denial? It is an excellent way to gamble or launder money. That's not changed, but it's not expanded either.

Bitcoin is the only sound money in existence. It will slowly devour fiat currency over time and humanity will benefit. There are quite a few similarities to the fall of monarchies.

Money that isn't freely exchangeable isn't money at all.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this apply to ‘things’ such as life, air, water?

Definitely. Value of life is estimated and changes all the time across cultures, in wars, life insurances, technological tradeoffs like cars that kill people but we accept the cost… There’s no universal, intrinsic value to life. It’s us that give it value.

Thanks. I agree with you, although question the usefulness of going into what I perceive as a more metaphysical direction. In this sense it is trivial that nothing has intrinsic value. But putting on my more pragmatist hat, I would say that there is a sense in which basic survival is very much universal and unquestionable value. "I don't want to die", "I want to be happy", are pretty much safe assumptions to make across cultures and history (yeah, people commit suicide, hence it is not universal, but still a pretty safe bet and worth to consider 'universal' for all practical purposes).

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I'm not sure if I understand your question/statement. What I wanted to say, is that in its current form, bitcoin IS money for some ultrarich people who have enough of it AND are able to access a commerce world where you can actually buy stuff with it without converting it to fiat currencies. Because last time I checked, I can't buy milk with BTC in my local supermarket, but I bet I can buy some luxury/illegal…

You can onboard to Bitcoin with $10 in USD and use it to buy groceries.

Not without massive fees, and no store accepts it around me.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely. Value of life is estimated and changes all the time across cultures, in wars, life insurances, technological tradeoffs like cars that kill people but we accept the cost… There’s no universal, intrinsic value to life. It’s us that give it value.

Thanks. I agree with you, although question the usefulness of going into what I perceive as a more metaphysical direction. In this sense it is trivial that nothing has intrinsic value. But putting on my more pragmatist hat, I would say that there is a sense in which basic survival is very much universal and unquestionable value. "I don't want to die", "I want to be happy", are pretty much safe assumptions to make acr…

Try to define happiness in a universal pragmatic way.

Even basic survival varies acc ross culture and contexts. People die in the millions all the time for their countries, ideas, religions, offspring…

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