It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word • Hacker News Board

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#341

Post by Nevermark » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:56 PM UTC

nobodyandproud wrote: post #236

azinman2 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s say you got AGI, and it approximated a not so bright impulsive 12 year old boy. That would be an insane technological leap, but hardly one you’d want running the show. AGI doesn’t mean smarter than the best humans.

This is great insight. Science fiction does a great job inspiring technology research, but we forget that real-world accomplishments can be much humbler and still astonishing all the same. I'm a bit tired of the hype surrounding LLMs, but all the same for very mundane and humbler tasks that require some intelligence modern LLMs manage to surprise me on a daily basis. But it rarely accomplishes more than what a small…

Or accomplishments can genuinely be astounding.

Surely, the LLM models we have today are astounding by any measure, relative to just a few years ago.

But pronouncements of how this will lead to utopia, without introducing a major revision of economic arrangements, are completely, and surely intentionally/conveniently (Sam isn't an idiot) misleading.

Is OpenAI creating a class of stock so everyone can share in their gains? If not, then AGI owned by OpenAI will make OpenAI shareholders rich, very much to the degree its AGI eliminates human jobs for itself and other corporations.

How does that, as an economic situation, result in the general population being able to do anything beyond be a customer, assuming they can still make money in some way not taken over by AGI?

Utopia needs an actual plan. Not a concept of a plan.

The latter just keeps people snowed and calm before an historic level rug pull.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#342

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:56 PM UTC

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #131

lolinder wrote: post #86

To recap OpenAI's decisions over the past year: * They burned up the hype for GPT-5 on 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. * They dissolved the safety team. * They switched to for profit and are poised to give Altman equity. * All while hyping AGI more than ever. All of this suggests to me that Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for AGI…

I don't really follow Altman's behavior much, but just in general: > If he sincerely thought AGI was on the horizon he wouldn't be eyeing the exit If such a thing could exist and was right around the corner, why would you need a company for it? Couldn't the AGI manage itself better than you could? Job's done, time to get a different hobby.

Altman's AGI is Musk's full self-driving car.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#343

Post by mirekrusin » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:56 PM UTC

getpost wrote: post #285

lolinder wrote: post #86

To recap OpenAI's decisions over the past year: * They burned up the hype for GPT-5 on 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. * They dissolved the safety team. * They switched to for profit and are poised to give Altman equity. * All while hyping AGI more than ever. All of this suggests to me that Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for AGI…

I don't know anything, but isn't Sam already rich? And, if OpenAI is in a position to capture profits in an expanding AI industry, isn't this the best possible time to lock-in equity for long term gains and trillionaireship? For many people, sadly, one can never be rich enough. My point is, planning for both short term exit, and long term gains, is essentially the same in this particular situation. What a boon! Nice…

For some people the question "how much?" has only one answer – "more."

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#344

Post by peteforde » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:56 PM UTC

coffeefirst wrote: post #107

vbezhenar wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm paying my subscription and I'd probably pay 5x more if they would charge it to keep access to the current service. ChatGPT 4o is incredibly useful for me today, regardless of whether GPT5 will be good or not. I'm not sure how does that reflect OpenAI cost, but those company costs are just bubbles of air anyway.

Would you be willing to share how you're using it? I keep hearing from people who find these enormous benefits from LLMs. I've been liking them as a search engine (especially finding things buried in bad documentation), but can't seem to find the life-changing part.

I can't even summarize how much GPT4x has helped me teach myself engineering skills over the past two years. It can help me accomplish highly specific and nuanced things in CAD, plan interactions between component parts (which it helped me decide) on PCBs that it helps me to lay out, figure out how to optimize everything from switching regulators to preparing for EM certification.

And I could say this about just about every domain of my life. I've trained myself to ask it about everything that poses a question or a challenge, from creating recipes to caring for my indoor Japanese maple tree to preparing for difficult conversations and negotiations.

The idea of "just" using it to compose emails or search for things seems frustrating to me, even reading about it. It's actually very hard for me to capture all of this in a way that doesn't sound like I'm insulting the folks who aren't there yet.

I'm not blindly accepting everything it says. I am highly technical and I think competent enough to understand when I need to push back against obvious or likely hallucinations. I would never hand its plans to a contractor and say "build this". It's more like having an extra, incredibly intuitive person who just happens to contain the sum of most human knowledge at the table, for $20 a month.

I honestly don't understand how the folks reading HN don't intuitively and passionately lean into that. It's a freaking superpower.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#345

Post by meroes » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:57 PM UTC

whamlastxmas wrote: post #303

It’s really sad to see all the personal attacks and cynicism that has no basis in reality. OpenAI has an amazing product and was first to market with something game changing for billions of people. Calling him a fraud and scammer is super ridiculous

Game changing for billions? Please give an example. I’m fine to be proven wrong but I don’t know what you could mean.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#346

Post by pstuart » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:57 PM UTC

richardw wrote: post #292

azinman2 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s say you got AGI, and it approximated a not so bright impulsive 12 year old boy. That would be an insane technological leap, but hardly one you’d want running the show. AGI doesn’t mean smarter than the best humans.

A 12 year old that doesn’t sleep, eat, or forget, learns anything within seconds, can replicate and work together with fast as light communication and no data loss when doing so. Arrives out of the womb knowing everything the internet knows. Can work on one problem until it gets it right. Doesn’t get stale or old. Only had emotion if it’s useful. Can do math and simulate. Doesn’t get bored. Can theoretically improve…

And then with advancement, reaches teenage maturity and tells everyone to fuck off.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#347

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 4:57 PM UTC

richardw wrote: post #292

azinman2 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s say you got AGI, and it approximated a not so bright impulsive 12 year old boy. That would be an insane technological leap, but hardly one you’d want running the show. AGI doesn’t mean smarter than the best humans.

A 12 year old that doesn’t sleep, eat, or forget, learns anything within seconds, can replicate and work together with fast as light communication and no data loss when doing so. Arrives out of the womb knowing everything the internet knows. Can work on one problem until it gets it right. Doesn’t get stale or old. Only had emotion if it’s useful. Can do math and simulate. Doesn’t get bored. Can theoretically improve…

Why do we assume an AGI would not be forgetful or would never get bored?

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#348

Post by n2d4 » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 5:00 PM UTC

yndoendo wrote: post #226

bambax wrote: post #178

> Altman expects that his technology will fix the climate, help humankind establish space colonies, and discover all of physics. He predicts that we may have an all-powerful superintelligence “in a few thousand days.” It seems fair to say Altman has completed his Musk transformation. Some might argue it's inevitable. And indeed Bill Gates' books in the 90s made a lot of wild promises. But nothing that egregious.

Both of them remind me of Elizabeth Holmes. She ran Theranos through a promise of lies long enough they turned into fraud. So far Musk has been pushing the lies out continually to try and prevent any possible exposure to fraud. Like "Getting to Mars will save humanity" or the latest "We will never reach Mars unless Trump is president again". Then again, self driving cars are just around the corner, as stated in 2014…

The difference between those is that Musk and Altman make wrong predictions about the future; Holmes with Theranos made wrong statements about the present.

One of them is illegal, the other isn't.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#349

Post by s1artibartfast » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 5:00 PM UTC

cowmix wrote: post #301

Schiendelman wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi there! I've done a huge amount of political organizing in my life, for common good - influencing governments to build tens of billions of dollars worth of electric rail infrastructure. I'm also a big prepper. It's important to understand that stigmatizing prepping is very dangerous - specifically to those who reject it. Whether it's a gas main break, a forest fire, an earthquake, or a sci-fi story, encouraging peo…

I agree that prepping itself is completely fine, and people should be prepared for natural disasters, civil unrest, or whatever scenarios they’re most comfortable with. Building resilience is beneficial for both individuals and communities, and I can see how it plays an important role, especially in situations like the ones you mentioned in NC. My issue, though, is with someone like Sam Altman—a leader of an organiza…

>It feels like he’s hedging against the very future his company might be shaping.

I dont think the prepping can really be taken as evidence anything nefarious. Prepping simply means someone thinks there is a risk with hedging against, even if they are strongly opposed to that outcome.

I think you see many of the rich prepping because they can, but It says little about their desire for catastrophic events.

Prepping for a hurricane doesn't mean you want it to destroy your neighborhood.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#350

Post by peteforde » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 5:00 PM UTC

bhy wrote: post #239

vbezhenar wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm paying my subscription and I'd probably pay 5x more if they would charge it to keep access to the current service. ChatGPT 4o is incredibly useful for me today, regardless of whether GPT5 will be good or not. I'm not sure how does that reflect OpenAI cost, but those company costs are just bubbles of air anyway.

But note that the price they can charge is based on market supply and demand. If Claude is priced at $20, ChatGPT won’t be able to ask $100.

If OpenAI sent out an email today informing me that to maintain access to the current 4o model I will have to pay $1000 a year, and that it would go up another $500 next year... it would still be well worth it to me.