341–350 of 581 posts
Arguably compared to the technical people who do the actual work isn’t this a fairly perceptive description?
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1) The costs will go down over time, much of the cost is the margin of NVIDIA and training new models 2) Absolutely. Thats like one hour of an engineer salary for a whole month.
> The costs will go down over time, much of the cost is the margin of NVIDIA and training new models Isn't each new model bigger and heavier and thus requries more compute to train?
Raising the max intelligence of the models tends to raise the intelligence of all the models via distillation.
The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.
That'll be investor types who bring this stupid "winter" on, because they run their lives on hype and baseless predictions.
Technology types on the other hand don't give a shit about predictions, and just keep working on interesting stuff until it happens, whether it takes 1 year or 20 years or 500 years. We don't throw a tantrum and brew up a winter storm just because shit didn't happen in the first year.
In early 2022 there was none of this ChatGPT stuff. Now, we're only 2 years later. That's not a lot of time for something already very successful. Humans have been around for several tens of thousand years. Just be patient.
If investors ran the show in the 1960s expecting to reach the moon with an 18 month runway, we'd never have reached the moon.
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I agree on the first two points. On the third point, I think we've always seen this happen even in massive shocks like the Industrial Revolution (and the Second Industrial Revolution with assembly lines etc. and the Computer Age) It might be hard for people to retrain to whatever the new opportunities are though. Although perhaps somewhat easier nowadays with the internet etc.
The Industrial Revolution was a period of massive economic growth that was coupled with decline in the quality of life of the average worker. This Economist article talks about how looking at the historical data, historians now see that the height of the average Englishman actually went down due to malnutrition. https://web.archive.org/web/20210905065401/https://www.econo... The myth that the Industrial Revolution wa…
> OpenAI’s business model, as it exists today, doesn’t really inspire confidence, as it seems to exist on the promise of ‘jam tomorrow.’ Specifically, the firm has an income of approximately $3 billion per year, which is put in deep shade by its $7 billion annual expenditure. So a yearly loss of 4 billion dollars or losing $10 million daily. The IPOs basically (mostly) have been operating just the way Bitcoin has bee…
Amazon was not profitable for many years, yet they are one of the most valuable companies in the world. Why? Because they kept growing. What OpenAI is doing is "sustainable" if they keep growing like that. From summer 2023 to summer 2024 they 6x their revenue to 3.4B USD. If they 4x next year and 3x the year after, they would make 40B in revenue.
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> LLM Code Assistants have succeeded at facilitating reusable code. I'd have said the opposite. I think LLMs facilitate disposable code. It might use the same paradigms and patterns, but my bet is that most LLM written code is written specifically for the app under development. Are there LLM written libraries that are eating the world?
I believe you're both saying the same thing. LLMs write "re-usable code" at the meta level. The code itself is not clean and reusable across implementations, but you don't even need that clean packaged library. You just have an LLM regenerate the same code for every project you need it in. The LLM itself, combined with your prompts, is effectively the reusable code. Now, this generates a lot of slop, so we also need…
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There’s a lot of money to be made if you can reliable distinguish the two in advance.
My grandma loved to remind my dad about how he didn't think CDs would become a thing, and to not invest in Philips (as i recall) And he was tech savy, building circuits, computers etc, he just didn't think it would be reliable or better than what existed... definitely a vinyl guy.
Didn't pan out well for me.
I know Sam is gonna be a billionaire assetwise soon but I wonder if it’ll make him more realistic or even more “idealistic” (bigger bullshitter)