I wish GPT4 had never happened • Hacker News Board

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#341

Post by wg0 » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:32 PM UTC

LLMs will be in the same limbo as the full self driving software is at the moment. Been almost a decade, thousands of miles of training and yet it cannot be trusted.

The LLMs have no understanding whatsoever just token IDs and their probabilistic relationships with each other. I do not see them replacing 'shittiest' programmer whatsoever. Anyone writing games/software with LLM is the one who actually can code and would have produced same or better output by surely, spending more time than with an LLM.

But if you're clueless average desktop user, you cannot expect LLMs to churn out a full working end to end solution, not yet and probably not ever with the current probabilistic graph fitting foundations.

So, LLMs are surely very useful, marvellous and a handy tool in capable hands, will remain so but that Armageddon is not happening yet that you start calling for six month ban. Imagine, six months. What after six months? No answer.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#342

Post by School-Cotton » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:32 PM UTC

andai wrote: post #214

>Very few people truly understand the implications of this technology. Most people haven’t had a chance to try it yet. Can someone explain this? People keep asking me about ChatGPT but none of them have tried it. Why? Are people too scared to even take a look? It's been free for almost half a year now!

3.5 and 4 are categorically different in ability.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#343

Post by XorNot » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:32 PM UTC

netbioserror wrote: post #86

Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

A comment calling someone "naive" for thinking that work-for-income is the only possible way to find happiness.

Good god, corporate America has utterly brainwashed multiple generations. You lost your creativity, your imaginations and your aspirations. Even your entrepreneurial spirit.

"Here's a machine which can automate the intellectual labor of multiple professions, enabling it to simply execute on ideas you come up with." and the only thing any of you can think of is "but would I do with all this free time if I wasn't desperately struggling for food and shelter?"

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#344

Post by einpoklum » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:32 PM UTC

fastball wrote: post #204

ricksunny wrote: post #148

"...has a bachelor’s degree in Biotechnology and works as biomedical data curator. Her job is to go through scientific papers that publish RNA sequencing data. She understands the design of the experiment and cleans and annotates the data accordingly... Her work requires just enough domain expertise that it is been non-trivial to automate (until now). I think you know where this is headed. The day I got off the GPT4…

Tangential, but if you haven't seen ChatPDF[1] yet, it is probably the best interface for the job you're talking about that I've found so far. [1] https://chatpdf.com

I've seen ChatPDF, and if that's the best we got right now - Priya will be keeping her job for quite a few years.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#345

Post by 908B64B197 » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:33 PM UTC

T-A wrote: post #2

> GPT4 gave the correct answer in 1/10th the time it would take Priya and cost a lot less. [...] Priya has tried to learn coding, but she has struggled. Not that she gets a lot of time to do it either. 1) Show Priya how to use GPT4 to do her current job in 1/10th of the time. 2) Let her use part (50%+) of the time saved to learn coding or whatever other skill she needs (not sure coding is it).

> Priya has tried to learn coding, but she has struggled.

If there's one thing that will get automated first, it's coding (taking simple explicit specifications and turning them into code).

Unless she can learn software engineering (understanding problem areas well enough you can devise a detailed spec, and maybe implement it) she'll be out of a job as well with just coding skills.

People who haven't dealt with cheap offshored labor or bootcamp grads from the latest craze don't realize how much that workflow was similar to working with GPT4. Except GPT4 requires no training and gives answers in seconds.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#346

Post by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:33 PM UTC

dkqmduems wrote: post #305

sigstoat wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? if you'd like the standard of living of a few centuries ago, you can probably fund that by programming for a couple hours a week. instead you want entertainments, medicines and foods that take correspondingly more effort to produce.

Eggs are still eggs no?

No. I remember eggs 50 years ago, they tasted better, as did many other foods. Extrapolating, centuries ago, eggs were like divine ambrosia.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#347

Post by luckylion » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:33 PM UTC

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #292

luckylion wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? It's here, you're living in it, most likely. You just have to lower your wants to the standards of whenever that prediction was made.

Not possible because you don't set the prices or structure for obtaining goods and shelter It's not like there's unclaimed habitable territory that anyone can just go be subsistence farmers on - someone has laid claim to that land and it's not you So, no this isn't an option either as you're forced to interact with the rest of the world that demands your input

A few hundred years ago, you would've lived in a shed with 6 people on 10sqm. I'm sure you can get that kind of accommodation today for very little money.

If you want 2023-level housing, you'll need to put in 2023-level work, unfortunately.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#348

Post by pixl97 » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:34 PM UTC

surgical_fire wrote: post #206

pixl97 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friends in the gaming industry have the complains they can't get new junior and associate members on their team for development. Instead companies want to throw more tooling at them to make the senior developers more productive. With how bad companies are at providing on the job training now, what does the future look like with 100x developers versus newbies that can't talk to AI?

Well, I fully expect juniors in a few years to be somewhat familiar with AI assistants such as ChatGPT, much like they come with some familiarity with a programming language, an IDE, web search, etc. I see LLM models not as the end of society, just as new powerful productivity tools.

>I see LLM models not as the end of society,

This is because you're used to normal technological development scaling. Unfortunately with AI we are unsure at this point if our old paradigms still apply.

What happens with society really depends on where we are on the technology growth curve. If LLMs plateau for a while and we don't see significant growth in their abilities, then we'll just see pretty massive technological disruption and reshifting of human priorities, kind of like when the car or plane showed up. On the other hand, if we pop the AGI rabbit out of the top hat in short order it is going to surface deep fundamental problems that humans world wide have been ignoring because of the status quo has not demanded such rapid change.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#349

Post by klibertp » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:34 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #283

mort96 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? The extra value has gone to enrich the oligarchs rather than to the people. Maybe that should change.

How do you deprive an oligarch of their ill gotten wealth without violence?

It's time for the "without violence" to, once again, become of no importance compared to "ill gotten" (plus, with ever expanding definition of "ill"). That's what tends to happen, historically. We'll then get a decade or two of reconciliation and then will again start pretending that we're not murderous primate bastards we are, just like we did for the past 50 years (and even that not nearly universally).

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#350

Post by TechBro8615 » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:34 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #215

transcoderx wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much do you think you would have had to pay for an iPhone 200 years ago? Are you sure society hasn't benefitted from productivity increases?

People who claim that modern industrial tech and advancements have not benefited society is arguing that they are not being disproportionately benefited. Industrial automation did create the 2hr weeks - only that it's the people who paid capital and and invested in their creation that got those 2hr weeks. But everybody else got the benefit as the general access and availability of many more goods and services than ot…

Why is the premise that a "better life" is one where we work fewer hours per week? Surely there are other dimensions on which to measure quality of life. Or maybe you'd prefer to live in Medeival Times? After all, you'd work fewer hours per week! Sure you might die at the age of 35, have your leg gruesomely amputated due to sepsis, or be burned at the stake for suggesting the earth spins around the Sun. But think of all the free time!