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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#341

Post by Retric »

geysersam wrote: post #326
Retric wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flooding. Drowning is when a living organism is submerged, flooding is when buildings are submerged.

Doesn't that make it sound like a temporary condition?

It’s a tense thing. The processes is flooding, if it’s already happened then it flooded.

Ie: The Bering Strait land bridge flooded 10,000+ years a gap and it’s still under water. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beringia

Ultimately sea level rise is a temporary thing. Given enough time the oceans will boil as the sun ages unless something drastic changes.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#342

Post by Retric »

Retric wrote: post #152
vkou wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Absolutism gets us nowhere, And building out natgas will get us into a situation where we are locked into decades of guaranteed emissions, as all the vested interests in the production and consumption space fight tooth and nail to protect their line of business, and the capex they've dumped into it. There's no plausible net-carbon zero path this century that's compatible with our current buildout of natgas. Perfect…

Natural gas is a great pathway to net zero because the fuel is so vastly more explosive than the equipment. People own gas turbines that are literally used for less than a week a year and are simply paid for standby capacity. Quite literally you’re better off building solar where 1/2 it’s output is wasted over a year than burning natural gas. When you’re building that much solar things are very close to net zero. Eve…

*expensive not explosive

Auto corrupt…

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#343

Post by generativenoise »

jimmar wrote: post #337
generativenoise wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is miles off from "We're all doomed in five years". Still entirely possible though seems improbable that the last 5 years has baked in enough change to doom "humanity". Can't really tell until the system has reached equilibrium, so you really have to wait several decades to properly be able to evaluate the claim. You don't die from jumping off a building you die from hitting the ground.

I think we agree that you're doomed once you jump off the building, right? It might take a while to fall, but your future is set in stone...or concrete. There are people who argue that from a climate perspective, we are doomed. So what's the choice now? Be less doomed if we cut emissions? Be extra doomed if we don't? Are there meaningful levels of doomed?

Hrmmm, maybe I did not the best analogy to try and elucidate the difficulty of judging an action till you have reached an equilibrium state. Since it is quite predictable with a pretty concrete outcome under most conditions.

I think there are definitely meaningful levels of "doomed", but that really depends on what you value. If what you value is I can live by the ocean without being beaten to death by huge storms maybe that is a bit more on the doomed scale.

It more is that we are forcing the system to change, we somewhat have a say in how much/how fast/how unpredictable we would like that to be. Also keeping in mind with some systems the more we push the system from equilibrium the less controllable it is.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#344

Post by sazz »

aaomidi wrote: post #85
numbers_guy wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the fuck do you even mean with "nothing happens", when the climate has been changing noticeably for the past decade already?

I know right? We’re seeing crop failure after crop failure. Whole ecosystems are collapsing. Tornados and floods are happening in places they had never happened in. Europe and the US are going to be impacted way later than everyone else other than the immigration wave they’re going to have to deal with. It’s a sick joke that the countries with the ability to do something about this are also going to be the last ones…

China, USA, India, Russia - those are countries producing most of the CO2. Take those four countries and you have roughly half of the emissions.

Do you really think China will change anything economical at all when Germany or Great Britian cripled themselves to death? Do you think Russia highest priority is the reduction of CO2?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#345

Post by lozenge »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #12

To start, yes, I agree with all the rest of the comments. Of course if you look at the action needed to start within the 1.5 degree carbon budget, it's simply impossible. It's kind of like saying how much better humanity would be if there were no wars - a nice thought, but also not going to happen. I'm curious, though, and I admit I haven't read the report, but what is it about 1.5 degrees that the scientific communi…

I suggest watching a Kevin Anderson lecture, basically, the 1.5C and 2C come from the political world, scientists then create research around that to get published, get their research into IPCC reports, etc. It is a farce and purely a political one. They are obsessed with "good news" and "hope".

The assumptions for how 1.5C is "possible" amount to futurism.

The goalposts keep moving too - once it was a 66% chance of staying under 2C, now it's common to talk about exceeding 2C and lowering the temperature later, which is about as plausible as running a car into reverse while the gas pedal is down.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#346

Post by junon »

jimmar wrote: post #255
robertoandred wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's of course not what her tweet said. Did you intentionally misread it or just get it through an incorrect grapevine?

Her tweet was, "A top climate scientist is warning that climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years." Not that far off from, "We're all doomed in five years," because we definitely did not stop using fossil fuels, and in my opinion, wiping out all of humanity would count as doom.

Perhaps your understanding of English isn't native in which case I apologize but no, those two statements are not at all similar.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#347

Post by myrmidon »

sazz wrote: post #344
aaomidi wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know right? We’re seeing crop failure after crop failure. Whole ecosystems are collapsing. Tornados and floods are happening in places they had never happened in. Europe and the US are going to be impacted way later than everyone else other than the immigration wave they’re going to have to deal with. It’s a sick joke that the countries with the ability to do something about this are also going to be the last ones…

China, USA, India, Russia - those are countries producing most of the CO2. Take those four countries and you have roughly half of the emissions. Do you really think China will change anything economical at all when Germany or Great Britian cripled themselves to death? Do you think Russia highest priority is the reduction of CO2?

China is currently at around European level in CO2/capita (~8tons CO2/capita/year).

US is SIGNIFICANTLY worse by about a factor of two (~15tons CO2/capita/year).

"The west" has currently pretty much ZERO moral standing when pushing for more drastic anti-CO2 policies in China and especially developing nations like India or Africa. This is not taking "exported" emissions into account and considering cumulative emissions draws an even more dire picture.

"The ball is in China/India/Russias court, not much we can do now" is such blatant hypocrisy it still sickens me every time I encounter it. Please don't spread it.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#348

Post by klabb3 »

imtringued wrote: post #334
klabb3 wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah the time is interesting but it doesn’t directly imply anything about the flow. I’m curious about that. Ie how much new oil/gas etc is being produced by nature each year. Found this[1] now, which gives a ballpark of 20-80k barrels/y which can vary quite a bit depending on the guesstimates of undiscovered reserves. Since we produce 80-100M barrels/y, we’re drinking from the basin about 1000x the rate that it reple…

>80-100M barrels/y, Per day... >we’re drinking from the basin about 1000x the rate that it replenishes Try half a million times faster.

> Per day...

Oh shit. You’re totally right.

> Try half a million times faster.

Yep. At least it’s better to have a number than nothing, even if it’s +-1 OOM. It’s pretty wild to imagine using up 500k years of fuel production in only a single year.

While googling around, found another interesting metric: ratio of proven reserves to production rate, ie how much longer can we sustain given current consumption and no new developments. That number has increased over the decades, and sits around ~50 years for both oil and nat gas and ~100+ years for coal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserves-to-production_ratio

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#350

Post by junon »

alfor wrote: post #310

My comment was removed because it doesn’t support the current orthodoxy. (and could make people feel bad about their new climate religion) I would be great if the censure applied here would put the comments censored on another page with a link to it. That way people interested could see what is removed and why. Instead of being it silent and hidden. More and more I feel that HN has become an echo chamber where only o…

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