Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#341

Post by DLwdTxdU6smHQA » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:18 PM UTC

frickenhamster wrote: post #283

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #246

I reject the premise of the question, because you don't need lithium for electric vehicles. We could get by with shitty low-range batteries the way other EVs have. We would just need to standardize battery-swapping at the equivalent of gas stations. Drive 100 miles, drive into a battery-swapping station, service technician swaps the battery, you're back on the road in less than 5 minutes. We did it 100 years ago, we…

This will never work. Components in cars are engineered to be organized as efficiently as possible. The overhead from having replaceable batteries will kill the amount of storage you can have. There is no way you can have generic attendants swap out batteries in 5 minutes. Working with EVs is a dangerous job that you can't just pay an uneducated minimum wage worker to change. The batteries are extremely heavy and are…

I dont know how scalable this is, but Nio (electric car maker from China) are building automatic battery swap stations. See e.g. here (video is in German): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv7OQofChbg

edit: I think it takes more than five minutes though, especially when you have to wait in line.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#342

Post by otabdeveloper4 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:24 PM UTC

jgilias wrote: post #86

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

In theory. In practice the market has spoken as to what kind of a form-factor people find the most useful for personal transportation in different climates and economic development scenarios. There’s no reason why ICEs couldn’t have supported the kind of vehicles some people imagine other people need. The market has spoken, EVs only started gaining traction when they started resembling actual cars in form and functio…

I guarantee you 100 percent that there are orders of magnitude more electric scooters in the world that electric car-shaped vehicles.

You are simply wrong.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#343

Post by airbreather » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:30 PM UTC

It doesn't matter because there is only around a quarter of the copper needed in the world, so unless there's space mining the lithium wont be the problem any time soon.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#344

Post by sroussey » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:55 PM UTC

dgudkov wrote: post #256

sroussey wrote: post #236

We won’t be using Lithium by 2050 anyhow. If not aluminum ion batteries, then some other substitute.

Without strong supporting facts for viability of that "some other substitute" it sounds like "Full self-driving is just around the corner".

2050 is almost 3 decades away. There are at least two public companies that are in testing phase for such batteries today. Starting at coin sized (they last 2x longer). Then AA and then larger scale. I’d guess 5yr out which means 10.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#345

Post by stcredzero » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:59 PM UTC

matsemann wrote: post #239

stcredzero wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people shouldn't need to own a car. Do you understand why making such proclamations about other's lifestyles is authoritarian? Also, it's not so reasonable to declare others "authoritarian" because of the detection of an externality. Unless, one has nominated one's self as a superior arbiter of truth. If you are equal, then it's up to you to convince others.

> Do you understand why making such proclamations about other's lifestyles is authoritarian? No, I don't. I don't say people shouldn't own a car. I say people shouldn't need to. Please explain how that's authoritarian. And please stop calling me authoritarian and arrogant just because you disagree with my views.. > Also, it's not so reasonable to declare others "authoritarian" because of the detection of an externali…

No, I don't. I don't say people shouldn't own a car. I say people shouldn't need to. Please explain how that's authoritarian.

My apologies if you took it this way. If you aren't making prescriptions for other people's lives, then you have nothing to fear or be offended about. Only you know the contents of your own mind.

No, the base case is no cars...

Who is really the authoritarian?

Isn't that relative to what the status quo is right now? To answer that question, ask: Who is asking that people be convinced, and volunteer to change?

If you live somewhere, where there are no cars, then your base case doesn't imply having others change. If you live somewhere, where there are already cars, then your base case implies you want people to change.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#346

Post by markeibes » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:00 PM UTC

If the vehicles are trains then yes.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#347

Post by TheCoelacanth » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

hcurtiss wrote: post #207

kuschku wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Train tickets include track maintenace, but if you travel by car, you usually don't include road maintenance, car purchase, etc in the travel price (as they're often hidden and include many subsidies and tax breaks). Additionally, a train always costs the same amount to run, no matter the number of passengers, so in countries where trains don't see much use (like the US), they'll be much more expensive than they shou…

Passenger rail in the US, like Amtrak, is spectacularly subsidized.

Because of unprofitable long-haul routes through the middle of nowhere that no one in their right mind would use instead of flying but that are kept for political reasons.

The northeast corridor, which is basically the only Amtrak route that is actually focused on being a useful route for passengers, runs at a profit.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#348

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:19 PM UTC

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #169

micromacrofoot wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this. I can bring 2 kids to school and do a full grocery trip without even breaking a sweat. I do 6 miles each way and since I avoid traffic it's just as fast as driving. Plenty of people bike all 4 seasons, the Netherlands is the go-to example... it rains a lot there. Driving to work under-dressed in a heated box is a luxury that's kind of harmed a lot of people's ability t…

>A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this Not so long as a "never in a lifetime on average" crash remains an acceptable justification to spend tens of thousands of dollars it's not. And that's ignoring weather and convenience.

> "never in a lifetime on average" crash

That’s a strong argument against SUVs, a type of vehicle that is notoriously dangerous because drivers can’t see children in front of their hood. It also flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents.

Cargo bikes don’t have those issues.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#349

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:24 PM UTC

jgust wrote: post #205

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

> e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shines Is this true? I can go through a 630Wh battery in 2-3 hours of riding and I can't imagine current solar being able to keep up with that. I think you might get an extra ~30 minutes of riding, but not ~forever~ unless you mean pedal power.

Your mileage will vary, but the order of magnitude works:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EyRqQhuwio

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#350

Post by nickspicer1993 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:25 PM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #295

gnopgnip wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lithium isn't a rare earth mineral or metal, it is the 33rd most common element on earth. There is a substantial cost to doing nothing and continuing the status quo

There is a very substantial cost to destroying the planet chasing after a toxic, highly inefficient and polluting alternative to ICE vehicles. Hybrid vehicles are clearly the answer. Tire pollution is a far more serious problem than tailpipe emissions. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/14/electr... This scene is absolute madness https://twitter.com/siddharthkara/status/1611042107871080449

What is the sustainability cycle in your opinion if we don't mass switch to EV?

According to most research the current plan is absolute net zero by 2050 and offset by reforestation, but that would not cover people not switching to EVs? Also projecting significantly further into the future, fossil fuels are not a renewable resource, what do we do when it runs out?