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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is building more housing simple? If it were that straightforward, California (which has much more space and money) would have done it, and Californians wouldn't be moving to Portugal.

The lack of housing in gigantic states like California is baffling to me as someone who comes from an incredibly densely populated country.

I find it hugely frustrating, but it's not that complicated. Ever since prop 13 passed in 1978, homeowners' property tax has been pegged to the purchase price rather than the assessed value, creating a huge disincentive to sell. In a place like LA, most or all of the habitable land has been developed. The lots that are undeveloped (at least those in my neighborhood) are sketchy—steep grades and sandy soil, which will eventually crumble either due to a megastorm or earthquake. No one wants to sell to developers, and why would they? They live in nice houses that get more valuable every year, in a nice part of the country with nice weather. Beyond that, they oppose every housing development imaginable, usually by arguing that "luxury condos" are replacing "rare green spaces." (There's a whole "Save Poppy Peak" campaign near me, which is infuriating, because it's a bunch of people with $1.5 million+ houses who don't want apartments to get in the way of their view.)

There are all sorts of obvious political fixes to this (repeal prop 13, end single-family zoning, incentivize building mixed-use, mixed-income residences, whatever), but I can't imagine any passing any time soon. Homeowners have all the power, fight all these changes tooth and nail (often through lawsuits against developers on environmental protection grounds) at the local level.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve literally seen this same exact comment many, many times except with different locations. Eastern Mass, New York, Ontario, Britain, and even starting to hear it from suburban areas. The exact same concepts: cheap grandfathered lease, hoping the landlord doesn’t cancel, can’t afford rent despite making >100k, “luxury apartments”, empty apartments, illegal renting (e.g. AirBnB) and shadiness.

Practically every single capital is like that these days. People of all nations can copy paste same rant and it would be 100% valid. This is how it is, too much buying power with new generation of higher level office workers compared to blue collar ones, on top of financial speculation with either prices skyrocketing, or airbnbs. Let's not forget there is more and more of people in general, and more and more coming f…

I would argue the Canadian one of Ottawa. Ottawa isn't cheap, but it is not anywhere near Toronto or Vancouver.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#343
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems to be a problem everywhere around the world in big cities. What’s propping all of these property prices up? Supply and demand rules don’t seem to apply at all. You might have thousands of empty apartments in a city yet the price only keeps going up. Everything is broken, but housing is particularly broken.

The problem is always not allowing more housing to get built.

what would happen to land prices if they did that?

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#344

Isn't it more accurate to say the Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Lisbon(or Porto, or some other desirable city)? If you have a city with X housing units, but 5X people from within the city + all over the country/world want to live there, and for whatever reason no one wants to/can build 4X more housing units, how do you fairly determine who gets to live there and who doesn't? * Is it fair if you were born…

Using a word as subjective as "fair" allows for people to propose solutions you don't agree with, but that they think are fair.

The author of the article says:

> Digital nomads, retired foreigners, and millionaires searching for Gold visas are pushing the Portuguese to another place.

> Is this really that fair?

We are obviously supposed to say "no", but I think the answer is yes. I really hate this form of argument by rhetorical question that only works if you _already_ agree with the author, if my answers are different the whole article just doesn't work.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#345

This sounds like what happened in the SFbay area(south bay/pennisula), I grew up there and it used to be a great place to live, center left politics, lots of families and a diverse set of industries with many middle class opportunities. right around 10-15 years ago things started to change dramatically for the worse, housing and costs everywhere skyrocketed, homeless population exploded, politics veered hard left. Mo…

I totally understand your pain in seeing your hometown turning into a hellish zone but I can't pass on calling the irony in your story since these same Cali exiles are one of the principal factors in pricing ordinary locals in Portugal out of their neighborhoods.

SOURCE

Welcome to Portugal, the new expat haven. Californians, please go home

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-12/califo...

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#346
post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically all of what you said is empty populist propaganda that doesn't pass a basic sniff test. You're painting the EU as the bad guy with a broad brush and it's just total nonsense. * depends on how you define "high" levels of migration, but few EU countries fit that. Portugal does, because they explicitly encourage it. Why? Nothing to do with the EU, they're trying to fight negative population growth. * social pr…

Yeah, facts. Demographics explains most of what's going on. Portugal's working age population is declining[1] while its 60-plus population is increasing.[2] Old people own most of the real estate and don't care much about workers. They also tend not to like change, which immigrants bring. So they dislike immigrants despite depending on them. (//TODO: find papers supporting these assertions: they're factoids of the "e…

I'm struggling to follow your arguments.

"Boomers don't like immigrants/workers, therefore life is getting really expensive" doesn't really sound like good reasoning.

If the population is shrinking, demographics doesn't explain it by itself. Housing should be getting cheaper if there are less people competing for it. There must be another factor here.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#347
post #7

I hope Portugal won't tackle it like my country, with a cap on rent and other market distortions. I think that only makes it worse. Fun fact: I - as a single - live in a way too big, luxurious and expensive apartment because of this. I rented it, when I was still working for the man and was making a killing. Now I live a much more modest 4-hour-workweek life. It would be better for me to move to an apartment half the…

Heavily taxing houses that stay empty and limiting short duration rental could be quite effective. The issue is somewhat the same in Paris. It’s very hard to afford living there because non local use properties as an investment and prefer them staying empty than risking them degraded and people who want to rent make more money on Airbnb. It’s fine if you want the city to become Disneyland but very depressing otherwis…

Cute, walkable cities are the original Disneyland - there's no changing that and in fact it will become more pronounced.

taxing empty - yes

limiting short duration - no, just tax it more. Limits are too easy to hack.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#348

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

Where does this end?

A planet full of empty "luxury apartments" and most of us homeless?

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city Portugal should build more housing, which is a simple, effective solution if the rent is too damn high: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-ren... . The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like.

In what way is building more housing simple? If it were that straightforward, California (which has much more space and money) would have done it, and Californians wouldn't be moving to Portugal.

Ah yes, California, where a developer in Berkeley spent 12 years fighting the city to build a six-story apartment building, which was then built in

six weeks. People were moving in three months after breaking ground.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve literally seen this same exact comment many, many times except with different locations. Eastern Mass, New York, Ontario, Britain, and even starting to hear it from suburban areas. The exact same concepts: cheap grandfathered lease, hoping the landlord doesn’t cancel, can’t afford rent despite making >100k, “luxury apartments”, empty apartments, illegal renting (e.g. AirBnB) and shadiness.

Practically every single capital is like that these days. People of all nations can copy paste same rant and it would be 100% valid. This is how it is, too much buying power with new generation of higher level office workers compared to blue collar ones, on top of financial speculation with either prices skyrocketing, or airbnbs. Let's not forget there is more and more of people in general, and more and more coming f…

I don't think I've ever heard the absurd levels of this blog post and I've lived in few expensive cities from italy, poland and switzerland, where it is impossible for middle class locals to live there.
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