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Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

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Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#341
I think we are in danger of applying the wrong lesson from history.

People today say you cannot be a "Putin apologizer", or that looking for reasons for Putin's behavior was a form of "appeasement".

People who say these things believe they have learned from history. They look back at Hitler in 1938. Czechoslovakia. Austria. And, finally, Poland. They look back at England and France, who, not wanting to risk war, sought ways to "appease" Hitler. And by doing that, they lost valuable time and allowed Hitler to grow stronger, making the situation much worse for the world.

Now, people are drawing the conclusion: "You should never try to appease a dictator!"

But I'd argue that this is the wrong conclusion.

What backfired back then is not that England and France tried to appease Hitler. What backfired was that the leaders of England and France grotesquely misread Hitler and his goals.

Their mistake was not that they tried to understand Hitler's motives. Rather, their mistake was precisely that they failed to accurately understand his motives.

This is why the English public finally turned to Churchill. Because Churchill actually "got" Hitler. He had formed an accurate mental model of Hitler's motives.

Did that make Churchill into a "Hitler apologist"? Not at all. Instead, it allowed him to accurately predict Hitler's next moves. It allowed him to predict that making territorial concessions to this man would never help to guarantee peace long-term.

Churchill was actually one of the few European leaders who had troubled to read "Mein Kampf". He also read the books written by Sebastian Haffner, a German who had chronicled his life under Hitler from inside Germany.

When I see people today saying they cannot stand Putin, and therefore they don't want to hear what he says, because it's all lies and propaganda anyway, it worries me. Because even if Putin was a Hitler 2.0 (which is very doubtful, since History rarely repeats itself and reasoning by analogy often leads to spectacular failures) it would mean that we should pay even more careful attention to his motives, and not less. We should pay even more careful attention on the outside contingencies and the mental frameworks that drive Putin's actions, and not less.

Nietzsche has said, "If you look into the abyss, the abyss looks back into you."

And it almost seems that people are afraid of precisely that. They almost think that by not acknowledging a thing they don't like, it will go away. Those who have been warning about a war in Ukraine have correctly pointed out that this strategy will not only not work, but that it will backfire.

So the true lesson from 1938 is not that one should "never negotiate with dictators". The true lesson is that you have to make an effort to face the other party's viewpoint. To make an effort to understand the true motives, without any fear of what you might find.

That includes the fear of finding out that your own behavior might have contributed to the status quo. You need to let go of your comforting beliefs -- that things will "sort themselves out", that it's "just the other party's fault", that there's "nothing to learn or understand" because you already know exactly what the other party is really after, etc..

What made Churchill great, in my view, is that he was able to overcome all of those comforting beliefs. People respected him because he would tell them not what they would have liked to hear, but what they needed to know.

I think this is very, very different from what we're seeing today from our own leaders. They are posturing. They claim that the inconvenient truth is that "Putin is worse than we thought", and that the necessary sanctions will require "sacrifices from all of us". They try to sound like a Churchill. But they make no effort to be one. They imitate the outside posture, but they totally miss the inner essence.

Scholz said it best. He said to Putin during that recent press conference (and I'm paraphrasing), "What do you care about Ukraine and NATO? It's not going to happen anytime during our terms of office anyway".

That isn't Churchill. That's Chamberlain.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#342

Seeing this play out in the media reminds me of the Iraq War hysteria in 2003. Completely one-sided coverage, classic war-time propaganda (ghost of kiev), banning Russian arts and paralympians, etc. I've lost all faith in the media. Period. You may think that there is an absolute answer to this situation, but there isn't. I recommend that you study commentators and scholars such as: John Mearsheimer, Zbigniew Brezins…

I despise this western-centric view- were only the people in the west are real people, that can make decisions for themselves, and the rest is just pawns for playing a funny great board game. The idea that even a new-born nation, could walk out of the board game and do its own thing is so outrageous to the players, it is not even considered. Well, ukraine just tried that. Its a sovereign nation, and it wanted nothing…

The problem is you're arguing from an idealistic point of view. But in the real world might makes right. Doesn't matter what Ukraine wants if it doesn't have nukes to back it up.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> strangulation via power projection. Cool metaphor there, but exactly what do you have in mind? Let's say every single neighbor of Russia becomes a NATO member, how does that strangulation via power projection work? Or in our concrete case, let's say Ukraine becomes a NATO member, who is going to threaten Russia, and how? Preferably in more concrete terms, rather than metaphors.

In concrete examples if a future conflict of interests arises: They could shut down more airspace to russian reinforcement of allies. They could more easily cut off access access ports in the black sea. They could invade Belarus on a new front. They could move conventional and nuclear bombers closer to moscow. They could arm Russian revolutionaries using the land boarder. Being encircled makes it harder for Russia to…

All these could be valid grievances. Great powers keep poking and prodding each other all the time. Russia does all sorts of chicanery back. They are mounting right not psy ops in Eastern Europe (e.g. the current "word" over there is that they are in danger of being nuked because of the US bases, and it's all US's fault, they'd be just fine if US got out of there... and some people swallow that stuff hook, line and sinker).

Russia and the US spy each other. The US sanctioned Russia because of the Manitsky assassination. One can easily claim that this is economic warfare, and the if it weren't for that assassination, some other pretext could have been found. On the other hand Russia does kill people (and in the process they increase the popular awareness to such technical tems as Polonium and Novichok).

This is again, just to say Russia and the US keep taking shots of each other. That does not mean Russia needs to start a real war, where tens of thousands of people die. And if Russia does, that's in no way the US's fault.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have studied this situation nonstop for the last week and I pretty much have the same opinion as you. If you ask a simple question, Cui bono? (Who benefits?) it becomes clear that it’s ultimately another military industrial complex project. The sad part is that the only real victims here are the Ukrainian people, who were led along with false promises. Had NATO been wiser, none of this would be happening.

This is also playing right into NATO's hands in a way. But, after reading the authors I mentioned closely, I now realize that this is a war for control/negative-control over natural resources (grain, oil, gas, fertilizers, etc.). Also, this is about geostrategic security (anchoring at the Carpathian mountains and Bessarabia Gap). See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CNeDtZmpjU And: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If…

This — only have listened to the Hitchens so far — was fantastic. Thank you so much for sharing this. I wonder what he would say about Germany deciding to militarize overnight. No wonder Macron was telling Putin Russia is “European”. Wheels within wheels.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing complex about it. They're bombing hospitals and schools and they're doing it intentionally.

Just like we do! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wech_Baghtu_wedding_party_airs...

[deleted]

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing complex about it. They're bombing hospitals and schools and they're doing it intentionally.

Just like we do! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wech_Baghtu_wedding_party_airs...

It's deeply dishonest to claim that a handful of deeply tragic mistakes are in any way morally equivalent to the systematic and relentless targeting of civilians that the Russians are engaged in.

The U.S. military has committed war crimes. They have all been prosecuted by the U.S. government. From Abu Ghraib to Clint Lorance to the Marine Snipers to Eddie Gallagher. There is no moral equivalence.

https://twitter.com/truthsunchained/status/14987658293825454...

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not in the article but it is still a well-known fact: https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-election-of-Vol... Zelensky ran on a platform that included reconcilation with Moscow and which was neither pro-EU nor anti-Russian.

There's not much in that article about Zelenskyy and Russian relations, before or after his election. Certainly nothing about "reconciliation" with Russia, just settlements in the Donbas war. " ...he leveraged his massive online following into a serious campaign against official corruption. ... [In his post-election speech,] Zelensky vowed that his first goal as president would be to achieve a lasting peace in war-to…

I don't get your point since that is what "reconcilation" means. Here is yet another article supporting my claim: https://www.ft.com/content/ed40d675-16b3-4a35-a157-b9bf0078b... Do your own research to learn more.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since it is now Putin's stated goal to annex Ukraine, he's going to end up with more NATO states on his doorstep if he wins this war. So is he going to demand that Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia renounce their membership next?

Last I read he explicitly said that this was not his goal. When did he say that?

This Thursday, apparently: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/ukraine-russia-evening-...

And if you don't trust secondhand reports of a phone call between him & Macron, there is also a public statement today to similar effect, though couched in "look what you might make me do" rhetoric: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-ukraine-might-lose-160156...

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#349
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But to say that what Russia is doing is somehow US's fault, that really does not make any sense. My take on it is: if you willingly push a bear in a tight corner, you have it coming when he starts biting and fighting. Now, this is no valid excuse for me when it comes to nation states and their actions, but nations are just run by humans, aren't they?

Invading Russia would be pushing the bear into a tight corner. This is setting up camp in another ecosystem where the bear isn’t supposed to be at all, has no claim.

Problem is that Putins mindset seems to be exactly opposite to your statement. He sees the west setting up camp in an ecosystem he should not be.

Hint: I do not endorse that thinking but I can understand that someone with this mindset might react strongly to us (the west) starting to play in “his” front yard.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Václav Havel used to say, the problem with Russia is that it does not know where exactly it ends.

There's a geostrategic logic behind where Russia wants their borders positioned. Your statement applies more to other countries in Europe, IMO.

> There's a geostrategic logic behind where Russia wants their borders positioned.

Yes, imperialism usually has a geostrategic logic.

What it doesn't have is respect for the right of self-determination.

> Your statement applies more to other countries in Europe

Except you’ve literally just admitted that it is exactly the driving force for Russia.

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