Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers • Hacker News Board

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#341

Post by acdha » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:59 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #331

acdha wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note the rest of the sentence where I specified to be a desirable place to live. Outliers matter: if you live on a block with 10 houses, you care more about the one which is falling apart and full of rats than the ones which are mostly okay. > And people keep proposing systems that do worse than that and refusing to critically assess how their ideas work out in practice vs a free market. Can you provide examples of t…

> Outliers matter: if you live on a block with 10 houses, you care more about the one which is falling apart and full of rats than the ones which are mostly okay. What is the plan? Imprison the person living in the ratty house? Fine them into oblivion? I've never heard of a case of a town council taking over someone's house to repair it - I'm sure it happened somewhere once but that is quite the outlier. I've seen pl…

> What is the plan? Imprison the person living in the ratty house? Fine them into oblivion? I've never heard of a case of a town council taking over someone's house to repair it - I'm sure it happened somewhere once but that is quite the outlier.

If you have this little information about how societies work, maybe it would be a good idea to do some reading before making bold pronouncements about how hypothetical systems are better. Cities have various approaches and degrees of success so there are plenty of real world examples you can compare with details rather than treating it like a dorm room hypothetical.

> Hong Kong, jewel of Asia? Switzerland is probably pretty decentralised too, they certainly have the most democratic government I know of. And the highest-ranked superpower on the list, everyone's favourite USA, is famous for having some of the strongest constraints on their government in the world.

None of those are commonly considered libertarian states and they all have many examples of rules which most libertarians oppose (e.g. the Swiss gun control laws) so it would again be better to talk about specific real policies rather than hypotheticals which are too vague to evaluate.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#342

Post by roenxi » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:05 PM UTC

croon wrote: post #328

roenxi wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Please find the source On reflection, it didn't make any sense. Obviously the worst case scenario for covid is death and so it isn't possible for a vaccine to make breakthrough cases worse. Regardless, you're still wrong. It isn't the case that more protection is always better. We know that there are circumstances where a vaccine can make a disease worse. And we don't know what future variants of the coronavirus wi…

> Regardless, you're still wrong. It isn't the case that more protection is always better. We know that there are circumstances where a vaccine can make a disease worse. And we don't know what future variants of the coronavirus will do. I'm still wrong because I point out based on facts that I'm correct? The covid vaccines are much better than no vaccines. I'll throw in another point: "For every 10 million people who…

> I'm still wrong because I point out based on facts that I'm correct?

No, you're wrong because you said "more protection is always better". That isn't true - sometimes the protection turns out to be worse than nothing.

> Is your freedom not impeding on other peoples freedoms (to live)?

There isn't a freedom "to live", it doesn't mean anything. Everybody dies in the end no matter what. Nobody has ever had a "freedom" not to catch diseases, if I had that one I'd have exercised it a few times in the past; I don't like throwing up.

> "Prevalence in those aged 5-49 was 2.5 times higher at 0.20% (0.16%, 0.26%) compared with those aged 50 years and above at 0.08% (0.06%, 0.11%)." [1]

They only opened up vaccinations to people aged under 40 in May, and it takes a few months to get both doses of the vaccine and that paper was issued in mid June. I'm not sure that tells us anything. Obviously if the majority of a population is vaccinated then unvaccinated people will be the majority of cases, that isn't in question.

> Your "facts" seem based on simple reasoning that I can't reconcile with what I consider facts to be, nor do I agree with the reasoning to begin with.

We're not disagreeing on any numbers here. I doubt you consider your reasoning to be superior due to excessive complexity.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#343

Post by zhdc1 » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:13 PM UTC

quotemstr wrote: post #329

zhdc1 wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gosh, disturbing comment section for disturbing times. When experimental medical treatments become mandatory for illnesses that have a 99%+ survival rate, and there is absolutely NO LONG TERM safety data, some red flags should be raised. The current case fatality rate is averaging around 2%, but that's with access to medical care. The CFR at the early stages of the pandemic, and in countries without good medical sy…

> The current case fatality rate is averaging around 2%, but that's with access to medical care. This is an order of magnitude off from what the data actually say. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... See table 4. Delta: total cases: 92,029 Deaths within 28 days: 117 100 * (117 / 92,029) = 0.127% No, not anywhere close to 2%. 5%? 10%? It never got anywhere near that. This disease just isn't…

Your pamphlet was published in June, at the start of the Delta-variant infection spike. On average, it takes eighteen days before someone infected with COVID-19 passes away from it.

The UK had 769 COVID-19 related deaths over the last week, which was up from 654 the week before. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

The UK has had a total case fatality rate of 1.9%. Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#344

Post by roenxi » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:16 PM UTC

acdha wrote: post #341

roenxi wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Outliers matter: if you live on a block with 10 houses, you care more about the one which is falling apart and full of rats than the ones which are mostly okay. What is the plan? Imprison the person living in the ratty house? Fine them into oblivion? I've never heard of a case of a town council taking over someone's house to repair it - I'm sure it happened somewhere once but that is quite the outlier. I've seen pl…

> What is the plan? Imprison the person living in the ratty house? Fine them into oblivion? I've never heard of a case of a town council taking over someone's house to repair it - I'm sure it happened somewhere once but that is quite the outlier. If you have this little information about how societies work, maybe it would be a good idea to do some reading before making bold pronouncements about how hypothetical syste…

> If you have this little information about how societies work, maybe it would be a good idea to do some reading before making bold pronouncements about how hypothetical systems are better. Cities have various approaches and degrees of success so there are plenty of real world examples you can compare with details rather than treating it like a dorm room hypothetical.

I've seen a lot of derelict properties in my time. It would appear nothing was being done.

What various approaches are you thinking here? I think it is more likely that you aren't paying attention to derelict properties and rats than that I've missed something. If a homeowner doesn't want to maintain their home then there isn't a whole lot that gets done about it.

> they all have many examples of rules which most libertarians oppose (e.g. the Swiss gun control laws)

Switzerland does have one of the highest guns/capita in the world though. Nowhere is ideologically pure, it isn't like you can point to an example of any state that is only driven by one ideology. China has capitalists, the US has socialists, the Europeans have literal Nazis, etc etc. Everyone has a mix of policies based on who is pushing what agenda. There is evidence that if the liberty-authority dial is pushed towards liberty then there are some shining examples of success.

But that is all beside the point I wanted to make - libertarianism just doesn't assume that everyone is making great rational decisions. That isn't how groups of people work. Libertarianism is just noting that the evidence government makes things better on average is questionable. Governments are routinely behind the worst massacres - which is certainly cause for a raised eyebrow and asking some questions. And given the regularity with which the financial system collapses it really isn't obvious the government is helping there either. Then regulation is either making us do things that would happen anyway, or blocking quick responses when the situation is changing radically (eg, the lockdowns were official enforcement of stuff I was largely going to be doing anyway).

> specific real policies rather than hypothetical which are too vague to evaluate.

Korea got the first coronavirus tests, and reliable ones, because they let private enterprise develop them. The US tried a government-led response and badly fumbled the first few months. The regulator was the source of the problems. More libertarian policies in the medical field would have prevented that.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#345

Post by croon » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:29 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #342

croon wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Regardless, you're still wrong. It isn't the case that more protection is always better. We know that there are circumstances where a vaccine can make a disease worse. And we don't know what future variants of the coronavirus will do. I'm still wrong because I point out based on facts that I'm correct? The covid vaccines are much better than no vaccines. I'll throw in another point: "For every 10 million people who…

> I'm still wrong because I point out based on facts that I'm correct? No, you're wrong because you said "more protection is always better". That isn't true - sometimes the protection turns out to be worse than nothing. > Is your freedom not impeding on other peoples freedoms (to live)? There isn't a freedom "to live", it doesn't mean anything. Everybody dies in the end no matter what. Nobody has ever had a "freedom"…

> No, you're wrong because you said "more protection is always better". That isn't true - sometimes the protection turns out to be worse than nothing.

You're arguing the semantics of "always" while ignoring the context provided. You're trying to win an argument, regardless if it's relevant to the topic.

The protection against covid (the vaccine/s) isn't worse than nothing. That is a fact, and what I'm arguing. You're stating I'm wrong, by carefully navigating around that into something entirely pointless.

> There isn't a freedom "to live", it doesn't mean anything. Everybody dies in the end no matter what. Nobody has ever had a "freedom" not to catch diseases, if I had that one I'd have exercised it a few times in the past; I don't like throwing up.

So does that mean that I have complete freedom to endanger others with my actions? I assume you don't think so, so there's obviously a line somewhere.

> They only opened up vaccinations to people aged under 40 in May, and it takes a few months to get both doses of the vaccine and that paper was issued in mid June. I'm not sure that tells us anything. Obviously if the majority of a population is vaccinated then unvaccinated people will be the majority of cases, that isn't in question.

That is exactly the point. The prevalence is 2.5 times higher in a group with much fewer vaccinations.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#346

Post by whiddershins » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:31 PM UTC

oliwarner wrote: post #340

justwanttolearn wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because the science is evolving so we shouldn't have to mandate those who already have natural immunity. Will coercing someone who has natural immunity to take a shot or lose their job be truly that much more beneficial to justify? I don't think so and it's ethically wrong.

My antibody test was more painful than the pair of injections. Vaccination doesn't harm people with existing antibodies (they just rebuff it faster) and going through the process serves as a good booster.

You don’t know this. We don’t know this.

We have to stop making these statements so casually about things that haven’t been studied.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#347

Post by whiddershins » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:34 PM UTC

betterunix2 wrote: post #87

gregwebs wrote: post #57

IMHO the effective thing to do is to focus all our efforts on vaccinating 100% of those that will end up in the ICU (the elderly and those with co-morbidities). These kinds of vaccine mandates get some of those at the greatest risk vaccinated but also ends up being a giant distraction in the US and makes it harder for the rest of the world to get the vaccines that they need as well. I think the blanket mandate approa…

That is not how vaccines or diseases work. Vaccines are never 100% effective at preventing infections or at preventing people from having to go to the ER. One vaccinated person surrounded by unvaccinated people will eventually contract the virus. A large unvaccinated population also breeds new variants, eventually resulting in vaccine-resistant variants that put those who are vaccinated in danger. The fact is that a…

But looking at studies out of Israel and the UK/EU we are seeing 9 to 27 times the protection from acquired immunity.

Therefore this protective layer you describe would be most quickly and effectively formed by letting people at low risk all contract the disease.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#348

Post by whiddershins » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:36 PM UTC

donutdan4114 wrote: post #118

literallyaduck wrote: post #80

Isn't this an unnecessary medical procedure for people who have already recovered?

CDC says vaccines are still better: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-pr... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/12157/ This paper says natural immunity better: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... Unfortunately the science is evolving so fast and the variants are coming so fast, it's impossible to keep up!

I don’t have the links, but studies from Israel and UK are showing 9x to 27x better protection by acquired immunity over vaccine.

Google around and you should find these.

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#349

Post by angelzen » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

voiper1 wrote: post #247

pwinnski wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TL;DR: You are correct! The counter-story seems to be based on radically misreading data out of Israel, which seems to show higher infection rates among the vaccinated, a reading which fails to take into account the incredibly high rate of vaccination there. So yeah, there are more infections among the 78% vaccinated than among the 22% unvaccinated. Given that there are 3.5x as many people in the first group, that's…

Israel is showing per-capita rates by default.. in some of the data... on https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/ to avoid this issue: e.g. hospitalized above age 60 (חולים קשה - התחסנות) 162/100,000 unvaccinated 40/100,000 2 dose (I think) 5/100,000 2 dose + booster If you'd just look at the raw numbers, the vaccine doesn't appear so helpful: 226 unvaccinated, 116 with 2 doses, 55 with 3 doses. Looks like it b…

There is also rate data from UK on covid delta (week 32-35 2021), breakdown by vax status & age, see Figure 2a. Cases under 40 is 1/2 vax/unvax, cases over 40 is actually slightly larger for vax than unvax. I had a sense vaccines are not perfect wrt infection, but didn't expect actual numbers to be that close.

Fortunately vaccines are very still very good at preventing severe cases (hospitaliations), see Figure 2d.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Re: Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers

#350

Post by api » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:41 PM UTC

LatteLazy wrote: post #31

api wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'll also indirectly purge the fed of people who think celebrities and YouTube are more trustworthy sources of health advice than actual doctors.

Exactly. I'd be tempted to do the same if i were an employer just to increase the average IQ and thinking skills of my workers...

It's not IQ at all. It's thinking skills and also emotional maturity. Many of the nuttiest conspiritards I've met have what seems to be a very high IQ. High native intelligence makes it easier to learn stuff but it also makes it easier to rationalize insanity and think yourself into corners.

I think emotional maturity factors into it because it enables you to see past plays to your ego like "take the red pill and now you are special and know secret knowledge THEY don't want you to know!" One of the drivers of this nonsense is the ego driven desire to be special and have secret knowledge.