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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#341

Post by throwawayboise »

Mavvie wrote: post #269
sokoloff wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tend to buy around 4-6 years old and run them for 10-12 years as well, which is limited by New England tinworm from the road salt we use rather than mechanical issues. Beyond airbags and ABS (both now ubiquitous), I don’t need the new feature faff. I just need something that will start everyday and that I can do the basic maintenance on. Fortunately, that’s still easily available and cheap in the 5-ish year-old “th…

I feel like each year cars get way safer. It started with blind spot detectors/cameras, and modern cars will even brake automatically and keep you in your lane (or at least warn you if you leave it). Maybe new features like self-driving aren't as interesting, but I would buy a new car instead of a used one just for the perceived improved safety. I don't know if there's any research showing that these features actuall…

Many of these features add minimal benefit if you do some common-sense stuff such as, don't drive when you're really tired (or drunk, or on drugs, etc.); don't play with your phone while you're driving; don't read, do your makeup, shave, etc. while you're driving. IOW put your focus on the task at hand and you don't really need blind spot detectors. Of course the reality is that people are pretty bad at these things.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#342

Post by christkv »

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

They also seem to point the finger towards hoarding by electronics companies in china to prepare for possible future sanctions.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#343

Post by newsclues »

istjohn wrote: post #192
epistasis wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…

I don't disagree, but there would be a political shitstorm if you tried to take away their trucks.

Not doing things for fear of political shitstorms is a large part of why everything is so broken these days.

Terrible leadership!

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#344

Post by throwawayboise »

mywittyname wrote: post #201
nradov wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current low interest rates on car loans make that approach a bit pointless.

They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.

You lose all of that and more on depreciation in the first two years.

I buy older than most people; currently my newest car is a 2009. I do maintenance and routine repairs myself, and I lose almost nothing on depreciation. But you can still come out ahead by buying 4-6 years old and letting the original buyers take the bulk of the depreciation losses.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#345

Post by JPKab »

robomartin wrote: post #285
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this ... > if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision Friendly advice: If you are going to be a consultant to industry, don't post comments like this. As someone who has been manufacturing tech products for over thirty years, my first reaction to…

Extremely well said. my gut reaction to the comment you were replying to was similar to yours which was this person clearly has no clue about smaller batch manufacturing.

It kind of ties into Steve Jobs comments on consultants versus people who have to live with the consequences of their decisions.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#346

Post by dehrmann »

xyst wrote: post #303

This is what happens when the entire world relies on a few countries for manufacturing of computer chips. All manufactured goods should be produced and consumed in the same country. In theory, if the manufacturing is efficiently distributed the supply chain should be immune to the effects of a pandemic or even country specific issues. I am still baffled that an electronic device produced in some province of China and…

Consolidated production has benefits like economies of scale and world peace, but at the cost of redundancy and national security. Chip production isn't actually that bad; Micron is in the US, Intel is in the US, China, Israel, Ireland, TSMC is in China and Taiwan.

What we're seeing here has nothing to do with consolidation of manufacturing; it's entirely JIT logistics. Decentralization doesn't solve that; surplus capacity and/or inventory solve that.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#347

Post by nerdponx »

ipqk wrote: post #289
istjohn wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but there would be a political shitstorm if you tried to take away their trucks.

You don't have to "take away" the trucks, but just make them more impractical: - sales tax on cars/trucks is by weight and exponentially increases the heavier the vehicle gets - increase taxes on gasoline - require a special license to operate a vehicle over XXXX lbs. - rewrite laws or encourage DAs to prosecute drivers that injure other people in cars or pedestrians even if it's unintentional - illegal to have passe…

People will wail and cry and scream about their freedom being taken from them...

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#348

Post by X-Istence »

Larrikin wrote: post #251
unclebucknasty wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but a savings account? Interest rates for savings are abysmal, and auto-loans are themselves frequently near (or at) zero these days, so it's losing advice as-given. Better advice: put the money in the market or other higher-yielding investment, then take a low or no interest loan on the vehicle when the time comes so those investments can continue to grow at the much higher clip. Money's just too cheap to give…

What percentage are you talking about as being abysmal. 0.1% offered at some shitty brick and mortar bank is terrible but nearly all the online first banks offer (or offered before covid) what I thought was a decent 1-3%

Highest these days is like 0.5%. If you are really lucky you can find 0.8%

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#349

Post by marcosdumay »

tazjin wrote: post #131
f6v wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the computer controlling the engine to be more fuel-efficient needed? No. Is the car even needed? No. We can continue ad absurdum, but it's clear that more screens is added to our lives to: 1. Consume more content 2. As a result, see more ads 3. Finally, buy more stuff I'm not against technology, but electronics producers have been going out of their way to continue growth. That's fine, but I'd love to have a ro…

With those gimmicky features there's also only a slim chance that anyone is actually using them because it's often hard to impossible, especially for people with less interest in tech. For example, in a large company like Samsung some product manager might show up and require that users of the food scanning feature have a Samsung account. Now you have to register for a Samsung account on your fridge, but the embedded…

> especially for people with less interest in tech

Hum... I can program in something around a dozen languages, can find my way around the Linux kernel code as well as enterprise software, can administer OSes...

Yet, I am completely unable to set my fridge's clock (why does it have one?) since I lost its manual. I have spent some time trying.

IoT and smart things are a great equalizer. Nobody can handle them. Some times it's even not possible.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#350

Post by tomschlick »

kens wrote: post #337
justapassenger wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features. In terms of bells and whistles? Yeah, not that much. But in terms of safety tech, there has been a huge progress in last 10 years and it’s not slowing down. New cars are not only getting harder to crash, but in case of crash they’re getting better and better at protecting you. Safety is main reason why I update my cars every few years, even tho it’s p…

A couple of days ago I was watching a dramatic video showing test collisions of old cars vs modern cars. I was surprised by how much safer a 2016 car was than a 1992 car. Not to mention the 1959 death trap Bel Air. (It's alarming though that 1992 is now the olden days.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TikJC0x65X0

Yeah I remember talking to my grandfather a few years ago and he made a comment about cars being so fragile now. One accident and they crumple costing thousands to fix when "back in the day" it would just be a bent bumper. I explained that in the old days the car was built sturdier and survived but the people had worse odds, now the car is sacrificed to take the brunt of the force. That finally clicked for him as he remembered quite a few friends being in life threatening crashes back then but barely any today.
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