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Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

wsj.com

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Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#341

Post by simonh »

leesalminen wrote: post #312
simonh wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s how it looked to the virus that really matters. Large urban populations, massive global movements of people, no vaccine. I think from an epidemiological point of view it really wasn’t all that different. Was it really all that different in terms of day to day economic contact either? Urban sprawl, shopping centres, industry, trains, trucks, telecommunications, global freight. Businesses losing workers and custom…

Do you really believe that journalists, of any nationality, in China feel free to express their honest take on this (or any) event that affects how people view the CCP?

Foreign Journalists come and go in China all the time, they’re not locked up in the country permanently. If what you say was true, direct first hand reporting of the Uighur situation would be impossible, yet even that happens.

Do you think reporting on factory activity in Guangzhou is that much harder? China has incredibly vibrant industrial reporting, businesses running just in time supply chains and making investment decisions need accurate information. Your just making up excuses and I suspect you know it perfectly well.

Well executed lockdowns with high compliance rates work. They did it, it happened and there’s plenty if other evidence too. There’s no refuge left for the lockdowns don’t work brigade except “Laa Laaa I’m not listening”. Where they don’t work it’s precisely because the lockdowns don’t work brigade won’t let them, with low compliance rates.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#342

Post by JeremyNT »

handelaar wrote: post #111

I for one love it when mouthy oncologists get picked to talk about epedemiology in the Journal. Next week, tune in for a sculptor's hot take on the Mars lander.

Yet another useless piece of Op-Ed trash that people are tricked into reading because it's in a big name publication.

Otherwise respectable news outlets really need to get rid of their dead weight opinion sections, which only serve to damage the credibility of the news divisions. These pundits are a dime a dozen and their unfounded speculation (or at times outright misinformation) is no better than the typical junk floating around medium and substack.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#343

Post by JohnBooty »

mod wrote: post #252
JohnBooty wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What this seems to hint at is that doing the absolute laziest possible, mostly-voluntary "lockdown" (ala the "lockdowns" we've seen in America) does not accomplish very much. It's like claiming a brand of toothpaste isn't very effective because you brushed your teeth once a week and still experienced the same level of tooth decay as somebody who never brushed at all. Is it the toothpaste's fault, or your fault becaus…

Perhaps, but meanwhile we're forcibly closing certain businesses and hurting those. I would know, I own one that has been greatly affected (a bar). For reference, my customers starting hanging out at the strip club instead, which didn't have the restrictions imposed (it was based on liquor licenses, which they don't have in my state). So, the lockdown was ineffective at controlling the population or spread, but it st…

Are you responding to the wrong post, here?

I don't recall denying that this lockdown has been disastrous for many businesses. You typed that out as if you were disagreeing or offering a counterpoint. Is anybody on Earth even denying the impact this has had on businesses?

I work in the restaurant industry, FWIW. Nobody needs to tell me how disastrous this has been for certain businesses.

More importantly than my post, though: I'm truly sorry your bar has been nailed by this while local strip clubs, of all things, have been allowed to operate. That is freaking absurd. I hope your bar can survive and prosper again soon. I have lost a business myself, prior to the pandemic. It's beyond heartbreaking.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#344

Post by JohnBooty »

chasd00 wrote: post #242
JohnBooty wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What this seems to hint at is that doing the absolute laziest possible, mostly-voluntary "lockdown" (ala the "lockdowns" we've seen in America) does not accomplish very much. It's like claiming a brand of toothpaste isn't very effective because you brushed your teeth once a week and still experienced the same level of tooth decay as somebody who never brushed at all. Is it the toothpaste's fault, or your fault becaus…

laughable or not, the American lockdowns certainly destroyed plenty of livelihoods and devastated a thriving economy where wages were finally rising for the majority. what would a proper lockdown look like to you anyway? I uniformed officer at your front door forcing you to remain inside?

I work in the restaurant industry. I definitely understand how disastrous this has been for particular sectors.

Do you think that I was somehow denying that?

When I called our "lockdowns" laughable, clearly I was referring to their effectiveness w.r.t. stopping the virus.

Clearly I was not referring to business impact. That was a point I didn't mention. Is anybody even disputing this has been rough on certain businesses?!?!

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#345

Post by 40four »

jrumbut wrote: post #174
40four wrote: post #140

I'm not sure how much stock I would put into this type of claim in an opinion article, but anecdotally, I've been tracking the daily new cases and percent positive in my area very closely for a while. Especially in the last couple of weeks the percent positive & new cases has fallen dramatically. Seemingly for no good reason. In my state, we are now consistently seeing percent positive less than 10%. After the holida…

Getting further away from Christmas/New Year's probably explains a lot of it.

Absolutely. The thanksgiving/ Christmas/ NYE combo was brutal.

No matter what, you just couldn’t keep families from congregating after isolating for most of the year. So much COVID transmission happened during this time period.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#346

Post by ryandrake »

spookthesunset wrote: post #327
ryandrake wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know anyone who over-estimated their chances of dying, took precautions, and then regretted over-estimating, but I bet that close to 100% of the people who under-estimated their chances of dying regretted it on their death beds. Personally, I am not afraid to admit I am scared of a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people, incubates for two weeks, then can kill you, but hey, I guess that just make…

So are you the type I see blasting through red lights on your bicycle wearing a mask and no helmet? Are you the type of person I see who blindly steps out into a busy street to maintain "proper social distance" when somebody walks by you? Because risks are everywhere. Overestimating your risks from covid by 1000x results in making some really, really poor risk tradeoffs. People joke about dudes drinking bleach and st…

Nope, just a guy who sees on one hand a very small, but nonzero risk of dying of an easily preventable disease, and the tradeoff is... wait for it... wearing a mask over my face and avoiding being around people indoors. I know! Terrible! Such a dilemma! I really have to agonize about whether it's worth the enormous cost of wearing a little piece of cloth.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#347

Post by spookthesunset »

ryandrake wrote: post #346
spookthesunset wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are you the type I see blasting through red lights on your bicycle wearing a mask and no helmet? Are you the type of person I see who blindly steps out into a busy street to maintain "proper social distance" when somebody walks by you? Because risks are everywhere. Overestimating your risks from covid by 1000x results in making some really, really poor risk tradeoffs. People joke about dudes drinking bleach and st…

Nope, just a guy who sees on one hand a very small, but nonzero risk of dying of an easily preventable disease, and the tradeoff is... wait for it... wearing a mask over my face and avoiding being around people indoors . I know! Terrible! Such a dilemma! I really have to agonize about whether it's worth the enormous cost of wearing a little piece of cloth.

The idea that covid is somehow a preventable disease is one of the more malicious bits of propaganda that’s been floating around. Is the flu a preventable disease too?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#348

Post by KaiserPro »

tinus_hn wrote: post #78
KaiserPro wrote: post #9

I mean thats a nice theory. The first broad point: infections are decreasing. I suspect that this might not always be because we are reaching "herd immunity". It could just be a side effect of stats. Also Vaccines in the USA will target the people who are likely to get tested. In the UK infections are decreasing because we are in a harsh lockdown. The vaccine show little to no effect _yet_ (unlike israel) As for the…

You claim lockdowns are effective because they are effective: if cases are going down without lockdown, it’s because of some unknown outside factor. If cases are going down with lockdown, it must be because of lockdown. Lockdown is both necessary and unnecessary.

In the UK there is neat correlation between lockdowns and reduced detectable transmission.

We can plot this quite neatly thanks to the fuckups that the british government made.

because the UK is made up of 4 nations with different lockdown rules, you can see the effect the various locksdowns on similar populations. you can see them here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#349

Post by cgriswald »

aww_dang wrote: post #258
danaliv wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't an appeal to authority though. That would be saying, "I'm right because I'm the expert." This is saying, "I don't trust you because you're not an expert." That's not a logical fallacy. Even experts in adjacent or overlapping fields are suspect. I'm a flight instructor. I teach in airplanes. Would you believe what I have to say about helicopters? You shouldn't. I don't know jack about them.

If you told me I had low tire pressure I wouldn't ask if you're a mechanic. I would look at the tire myself. If I was unable to use a pressure gauge due to a lack of my own expertise, I still wouldn't be in a position to question your observation about the tire based upon your credentials alone. The best counter argument I could mount would be, "It looks full to me" or "I checked the pressure this morning". Dismissin…

He’s either correct about your tire pressure or he’s not. You’re right about that part. That’s as far as the purely logical bit can go—then you get to economics: Should you spend the time and energy to give his claim credence? Your example is poor because tire pressure is an expertise the average person you’re likely to come into contact with likely possesses. This is not so of, say, the epidemiological issue in question.

If you picked up a member of an Amazonian tribe who had never seen a car before, are you going to worry about the tire if he claims the tire pressure is low? Well, sure, it’s easy enough to check. But what if it was $500 to check? No. I don’t think you would.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#350

Post by dorkwood »

thehappypm wrote: post #91

I really don't think lockdowns have helped a ton in the US. Look at Florida's winter wave of Covid cases vs Massachusetts. The curves are basically identical, despite vastly different pandemic policies. In other countries yes, but in the USA, are there any real data points that can argue that states with strong lockdowns did better than states without? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/massachusetts-co... h…

Two months ago, Los Angeles was apparently going into a second lockdown -- this is what the news outlets were reporting. If you went to the beach on any day of the week, however, you would have seen throngs of unmasked people milling about together.
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