341–350 of 431 posts
Totally reasonable argument, and I think most would be better off with an independent, US-based foundry. Unfortunately, I doubt that the US government functions well enough at this point to recognize the threat and overcome the influence Intel's money would wield against the effort.
I thought GlobalFoundries was US based, and they have a fab in Vermont (and Germany and Singapore)
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I did not know that! Though, that answer raises its own questions... If the two are entirely unlinked, what's stopping Intel from slapping "Now 3nm!" on their next gen processors? Surely some components must be at the advertised size, even if it's no longer a clear cut all-or-nothing descriptor, right? What's actually being sized down and why is it seemingly posing so many challenges for Intel's supply chain?
There's a nice wiki where you can look up more detailed specs on the processes of each contender, e.g. 5nm: https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/5_nm_lithography_process
Intel's 5-nanometer process node is expected to ramp around the 2023 timeframe.
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Heck, Amazon themselves got locked-in to Oracle for the first 25 years of Amazon's existence. Vendor lock-in for your IT stack doesn't prevent you from becoming a successful business.
True, true (and heh, it was me who pushed for Oracle, oops) But ... the difference is that Oracle wasn't a platform in the sense that (e.g.) AWS is. Oracle as a corporation could vanish, but as long as you can keep running a compatible OS on compatible hardware, you can keep using Oracle. If AWS pulls the plug on you, either as an overall customer or ends a particular API/service, what do you do then?
Oh wait.
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Ben missed an important part of the geopolitical difference between TSMC and Intel: Taiwan is much more invested in TSMC's success than America is in Intel's. Taiwan's share of the semiconductor industry is 66% and TSMC is the leader of that industry. Semiconductors helps keep Taiwan from China's encroachment because it buys them protection from allies like the US and Europe, whose economies heavily rely on them. To…
> Semiconductors helps keep Taiwan from China's encroachment because it buys them protection from allies like the US and Europe, whose economies heavily rely on them. Are there any signed agreements that would enforce this? If China one day suddenly decides to take Taiwan, would the US or Europe step in with military forces?
[1] https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/chinas-2020-gdp-world-no-1-ec...
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> Is it not at least somewhat possible that at least some of those Apple laptops will age out and be replaced with GNU/Linux laptops? Has Linux desktop share been increasing lately? I'm not sure why a newer Mac with better CPU options is going to result in increasing Linux share. If anything, it's likely to be neutral or favor the Mac with it's newer/ faster CPU. > But frankly I believe Apple have lost ground UI-wise…
> Has Linux desktop share been increasing lately? At least I feel I see a lot more Linux now, not just in the company I work for but also elsewhere. The speed advantage over Windows is so huge that it is painful to go back once you've seen it. MS Office isn't seen as a requirement anymore, nobody think it is funny if you use GSuite and besides, last time I used an office file for work is months ago: everything exist…
For the rest of the company, MS Office may very well be essential. In particular, Excel is king for many business functions.
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> I have a MBP, as do all of my engineers. Within a few years all of these machines will age out and be replaced with m1 powered machines. At that point the idea of developing on ARM and deploying on x86 will be unpleasant Is it not at least somewhat possible that at least some of those Apple laptops will age out and be replaced with GNU/Linux laptops? Agreed that developing on ARM and deploying on x86 is unpleasant,…
I develop on GNU/Linux begrudgingly. It has all of my tools, but I have a never-ending stream of issues with WiFi, display, audio, etc. As far as I'm concerned, GNU/Linux is something that's meant to be used headless and ssh'd into.
With a hybrid 1-2 days in the office and the fact that the NUC form factor has gotten smaller and higher performance, I could make a case to actually stick it in my laptop bag for the 1-2 days and do email/surf only on my train commute. I was never really that productive working on the train anyways.
This was a well-written article, but I don't think it came from someone with a deep understanding of semiconductor technology and fabrication. Intel hasn't lost to Apple and AMD because they employ idiots, or because of their shitty company culture (in fact, they're doing surprisingly well in spite of their awful company culture). Intel lost because they made the wrong bet on the wrong type of process technology. 10…
Intel will either solve its process issues in its own factories or, worst case, they outsource production to TSMC - either of which eliminates any process/manufacturing advantage held by AMD and Apple.
On a 5-10 year timeline, I don’t see a reason for Intel to continue stumbling on 5nm and 3nm processes though.
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Let's just hope that if Intel's position is protected because of its strategic importance in the tug of war, it doesn't become another Boeing.
This is a bizarre comparison. Boeing made an entire line of planes that could randomly dive into the ground, and insisted that there be no additional training required for the uptake of those planes. Intel, in contrast, was over-ambitious with 10nm and didn't wait a few more months to incorporate EUV into that process node. The government hasn't banned the use of Intel chips, but the 737 Max 8 was grounded for 20 mon…
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> Semiconductors helps keep Taiwan from China's encroachment because it buys them protection from allies like the US and Europe, whose economies heavily rely on them. Are there any signed agreements that would enforce this? If China one day suddenly decides to take Taiwan, would the US or Europe step in with military forces?
China's GDP is projected to surpass the US GDP in 2026 [1]. After that it won't be long until the Chinese defense spending will surpass the US one. And after that, it won't be long until the US and its allies will realize it will be healthy for them to mind their own business when China takes over Taiwan. [1] https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/chinas-2020-gdp-world-no-1-ec...