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Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

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Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#341

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

astrange wrote: post #298
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That jump happened because of groundbreaking discoveries in physics, chemistry, and biology. We are reaching the ends of that, though. Particle physics has been at a standstill for decades. Fusion power is still a pipe dream. Global warming continues to go on without a technological answer in sight. False AI promises are not evidence of anything. Nothing AI is doing now is genuinely artificial intelligence. Biotech?…

Immunotherapy for cancer is actually making great progress. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/u-s-life-expe... Most other progress depends on cheap energy and governmental policies, which we’re getting again. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-for-the-20...

Like your article says, most of those deaths are things like less people smoking, and small increases in treating/early detection of specific cancers. But the underlying problem hasn't been solved. That is an evolution, not a revolution. Which is my point - less and less revolutions, more and more money spent, for small evolutions.

> Most other progress depends on cheap energy and governmental policies, which we’re getting again.

Which, again, isn't scientific progress. If it's a sociological problem it's not really a scientific breakthrough - it could have been solved decades ago if the will was there.

In fact I'd say we can gain MORE from sociological improvements, not pie in the sky science.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#343

Post by dTal »

howlgarnish wrote: post #243
cmsj wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"turned out"... it's been starkly obvious since day one that true self-driving is a problem that requires general intelligence to solve. All you have to do to know that is drive a car and think about what's actually required to successfully drive from A to B in the real world.

Waymo is running self-driving cars with paying passengers and no backup drivers right now in Phoenix, and last I checked we don't have general AI yet. https://www.reuters.com/article/waymo-autonomous-phoenix/way... Sure, you can move the goalposts and say it's not "true" self-driving until it can handle all environments and weather conditions and whatnot, but self-driving cars are here. The question is how fast they'…

That's not moving the goalposts, those are the goalposts. Anyone can make a car that loops round a racetrack by itself, on a good day (well, not anyone, but it's relatively straightforward). The challenge is making it robust against "the real world".

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#344

Post by marcinzm »

tintor wrote: post #178
LeoPanthera wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? This happens to human drivers all the time, and humans are really bad drivers even in situations that have happened before. I fully expect AI drivers to be safer than human drivers.

Human drivers can adapt to a new unseen before situation.

Some human drivers can adapt to a new unseen before situation. Many can't in my experience.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#345

Post by papito »

bobthepanda wrote: post #330
astrange wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aerospace doesn’t have a monopoly except that strictly regulated industries prefer having one passenger plane manufacturer because they’re easier to watch. Nor do ICs (there’s at least four big fabs and three big CPU producers). The ones that work own moats like land or government licenses. But Uber doesn’t have that.

That's not the reason aerospace is essentially a duopoly. The real reason is that every single aircraft development program in recent history has been late and over budget, and now aircraft development is something that costs an eyewatering billions of dollars, if not in the tens of billions of dollars at this point. Bombardier sold, Embraer tried to, and Japan, Russia, and China have all mostly sputtered on despite…

I don't know - how many tens of billions did VCs put into Uber or WeWork, when these companies are not making a dime...

It seems like that's not a factor. Perhaps they find it boring, or perhaps the technical risk is just too high. It's all or nothing. You can BS your way through a classic tech startup as Adam Neumann did. It's harder with something that is a single flagship product that has to drive (Nikola) or fly hundreds of people in the air.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#347

Post by kevincox »

mikesabbagh wrote: post #160

This self-driving system promise keeps getting delayed! It looks to me this is a case of a donkey led by a carrot on a stick (investors are the donkey here). What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? what if this situation is deadly? Will all the Uber cars decide to jump off a cliff because of a wrong signalization or bad weather? What will the T…

Uber's has. But Waymo is currently giving self driving rides. By some definitions self-driving is here.

Obviously there is still a ton of work to go from easy-to-drive areas to global but it seems like that is a huge notable step.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#348

Post by justapassenger »

tachyonbeam wrote: post #275
justapassenger wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is waiting on the line 1 with some promises.

You can see lots of videos filmed by Tesla car owners (not by Tesla) showcasing exactly how the Tesla full self driving beta is doing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8IQFb3JeEo It's not perfect, but it keeps better with every release. They are ahead of everyone else by a long shot.

It still fails at very basic driving activities - it’s L2 system, and is advertised as Tesla as such (driver needs to be ready to takeover at any moment).

Very good L2, but nowhere close to customer ready self driving.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#349

Post by sofixa »

letitbeirie wrote: post #264
lr4444lr wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the loss of agency to machines, not the raw numbers that scares people. Why do you think so many people are unduly spooked after airline accidents due to mechanical or computer error?

Which is ironic, because this is the kind of automation they've been building into planes for years and consequently air travel is safer than it's ever been . 737 Max fiasco notwithstanding - it's worth mentioning that MCAS had nothing to do with flying the plane, only making it feel more like the 737NG to its human pilots

> it's worth mentioning that MCAS had nothing to do with flying the plane, only making it feel more like the 737NG to its human pilots

Not entirely true, the original issue is that the engines are bigger and the center of gravity is moved forward ( because the 737's are too low), thus the planes tend to stall. MCAS is there to correct the stall so that they feel more like 737NGs, but the issue is forcing bigger engines on an obsolete design.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#350

Post by admax88q »

bagacrap wrote: post #147
admax88q wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, the profits are easier and risks lower to just license the tech. Sticking to your core copmentency so to speak.

when has Google been known to do that?

lol fair point.
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