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This electrical transmission tower has a problem

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Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the root of the problem is that there's too much forest that hasn't burned. Blaming PG&E is missing the actual problem. For instance the Beirut explosion was the fault from the welders causing the explosion. Yes, but the larger and more important issue is why are there so many explosives in the first place? California's mismanagement with it's forest is the same issue. These forests should be periodically burned t…

It's possible for more than one cause to contribute to an event. California needs to manage its forests better, but PG&E is also clearly at fault.

My take on this is that PG&E way/is behaving negligently and the investigation that resulted from the fire uncovered that. They are literally the cause of the fire in the sense that their actions are what produced the initial flame.

However, I don't think the fault should lie with them because something was going to start a fire and they just happened to be the unlucky bunch stuck holding the match. There is no way you could say "if it wasn't for their negligence there wouldn't have been a fire."

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#342
If California had more microgrids, batteries, and demand response, they could more effectively power down their lines for fire safety and maintenance. The decision makers have been quick to add a ton of solar, but they need to add these other components for added resilience in what is an extremely fire prone region.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With proper engineering and maintenance, PG&E could probably reduce the frequency of fires significantly, but there's always going to be a non-zero risk of fire, both from power lines and other sources, and it seems basically inevitable that one of them would have started another fire at some point. I don’t understand. You’re conceding that if PG&E were a competent and responsible company they could significantly r…

No the root of the problem is that there's too much forest that hasn't burned. Blaming PG&E is missing the actual problem. For instance the Beirut explosion was the fault from the welders causing the explosion. Yes, but the larger and more important issue is why are there so many explosives in the first place? California's mismanagement with it's forest is the same issue. These forests should be periodically burned t…

I don't feel like your analogy makes sense here. The fact that there were explosives stored in the Beirut Port for years is exactly the same kind of institutional failure as PG&E failing to maintain their equipment for decades.

It's true that there are natural factors at play here, but in the case of Beirut, that might be more akin to asking "why is there such a large market for ammonium nitrate?"

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#344
post #231
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

At some point there's going to be a lightning or something and the fire will happen anyway.

Like right now? The feather river canyon near Paradise is on fire as we speak from a lighting induced fire that has caused fatalities. The Camp fire burn out area is actual one of the boarders of the North Complex fire.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#345
post #337
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fuel load decays over time, so a long enough wait period and the next fire is independent of the last fire. Thus, fewer PG&E fires just means less fires rather than there being some independent amount of fire that’s always going to happen. If anything they need to have more responsibility in such areas not less responsibility. If they can’t detect a tree is at risk or not then either cut down more trees or use un…

This is mostly incorrect, and a really bad take at understanding fires in semi-arid climates. The fires we are having are a human caused problem, and by human I don't necessarily mean PG&E. Trying to put this blame on one company is going to accomplish pretty much nothing and just lead to more deaths in the future as we piss around looking for the wrong people to blame and avoid solutions. Also, underground cables st…

Amusingly, mostly incorrect in this case translates to true. The point is it’s not a linear increase with time. Yes, controlled burns can make a serious difference, their also a significant risk on their own as unlike wetter climates you get a lot of fuel at the same time.

Blaming PG&E is relevant because they are one of the few companies operating in these areas. When fires start in suburbs they rarely grow out of control, it’s when their far from human habitation that you see major issues. Another option would be adding sensors to PG&E equipment to allow for rapid responses and thus vastly limited growth.

Underground cables still causing fires doesn’t mean much when their significantly less likely to cause wildfires.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#346
post #47

Interesting. I'm kinda sympathetic to PG&E on this though. These big lines don't have much under them, inspection is by helicopter, and the lines cannot be shut down. I would not be surprised if "fix it when it breaks" is a nationwide phenomenon for high tension lines. What makes it bad is how fire-prone California is. I'm of the opinion that humans should not be living in areas that burn regularly. And in PG&E's def…

It feels like a great use case for a drone, you could get closer, the video can be taken by non-inspectors and then reviewed later/stored.

In the UK helicopters are used as drones simply aren’t fast enough to image an entire transmission line in a reasonable amount of time.

However unlike PG&E we take high resolution photographs of every major component on a transmission tower, and manually inspect and classify every image take. Images of this type would have identified this fault, at least once during inspections taken during the last couple of decades.

Source: Worked for a company that did these inspections.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#347
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

> this area will likely never be safe without significant policy changes

What policy changes would those be? I've never lived near there so I don't have a clue.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#348
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average age of a PG&E tower is 68 years old.

So they better start maintaining them at a rate higher than 100-200 miles per year. They need to do 1000 miles per year to keep up with 100,000 miles of lines that have a 100 year life expectancy.

They’ve promised to spend $40 billion over the next five years on the grid, ~$8 billion of which is wildfire risk mitigation. It’s hard to say that will be in any way “sufficient”.

Because ensuring safety of the lines during very high risk days is impossible, a big part of the strategy was to add local generation redundancy so that they can switch off the transmission lines during high risk events but still keep the power on. These redundant stations would have to be natural-gas plants though, and CA has carbon-free mandates that prohibit them, so they have been prevented from implementing this strategy.

Frankly, it’s not clear that demand for this unreliable grid electricity can support the growth of the ratebase (the property being maintained).

At some point the ROI on switching to solar and batteries is net positive in the first month (based on financing the cost at a reasonable rate), and I’m not sure that point is much higher than $0.50/kWh for a household using 600kWh+ per month.

The more people that just opt-out of a grid connection entirely, the fewer people the ratebase is divided across, the higher rates must be set for those that remain.

Luckily the lithium-ion supply is fairly limited right now, but over the next 10-20 years that won’t remain the case.

PG&E currently has about $40 billion of debt, and recently issued $5 billion of debt at a B1 rating (junk). These issues also drive up their borrowing costs, which further shows up in the rates.

This is a good overview of the challenges they face;

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/four-hurdles-pg...

I predict that in 10-15 years we could hear calls to outlaw or prohibitively tax any new battery/solar systems that take new houses in CA off-grid, because the grid will be in “solar death spiral”.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#349

If California had more microgrids, batteries, and demand response, they could more effectively power down their lines for fire safety and maintenance. The decision makers have been quick to add a ton of solar, but they need to add these other components for added resilience in what is an extremely fire prone region.

At the same time, what is the failure rate of batteries leading to fire? Logic follows the incidences of battery induced fire should be highest when under load, such as when primary power is off due to wind storms.

So now instead of PG&E being the cause, it's now Bob and his Powerwall that set half of CA on fire.

Power is just one piece of a multitude of failures that have lead us to this situation. Lots of houses where they are going to burn is one of the biggest issues, and due to how politics works, no one is going to address that.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#350
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

Here in Sonoma County [Tubbs fire, kincade fire, LNU Lightning fires] PG&E has had 2-3 contracted helicopters out pretty much every day doing line maintenance/checking. I watch flightaware pretty constantly, so it's easy to see their contracted helicopters up in the area. Point being, they are trying -- I think people also fail to understand just how huge and rural Northern CA is.

3 x brand new ROBINSON R-44 ~$1.5mil. 3x pilot salary, lets be generous ~$400K. $220/hour operating cost includes insurance and amortized overhaul, flying 5 hours a day = ~1200 hours per year, 3x $250K.

$2.7 million all in all. they make >$500mil a year, they can afford to try harder.

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