Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

341–350 of 893 posts

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#341

Post by the_watcher »

greendave wrote: post #144

The problem is that the shelter-in-place rule is already limited in effectiveness due to a very lengthy list of exceptions plus many people not observing the spirit of the rule. Compliance will only drop over time as people see that 1) Their actions are having no obvious impact and 2) There is no clear end in sight. If the primary goal of extending the order is to give local governments time to build out infrastructu…

What evidence is there that the SIP is limited in effectiveness? The existing evidence I am aware of is starkly contra that assertion. Anecdotes of seeing people too close together in the park are not evidence of an ineffective SIP.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#342

Post by perl4ever »

smallgovt wrote: post #155
scott_s wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .

What is your reaction to Sweden's COVID track? They didn't shut down daily life, and their hospitals are doing just fine. In fact, COVID cases and deaths have plateaued. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

Does it make any difference if they have "plateaued" if there are more active cases today than yesterday?

Does it make any difference that the US has not "plateaued" if the number of active cases is rising slower than in Sweden, and the death rate is lower?

    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Country,    | Active Cases | Yesterday | Chg    | % chg |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Sweden      | 15,647       | 15,441    | 206    | 1.33% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Belgium     | 28,602       | 28,255    | 347    | 1.23% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Oman        | 1,675        | 1,655     | 20     | 1.21% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Georgia     | 335          | 331       | 4      | 1.21% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Ecuador     | 21,020       | 20,777    | 243    | 1.17% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Netherlands | 33,477       | 33,120    | 357    | 1.08% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | World       | 1,928,133    | 1,908,936 | 19,197 | 1.01% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Latvia      | 538          | 533       | 5      | 0.94% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Greece      | 1,821        | 1,806     | 15     | 0.83% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Poland      | 8,874        | 8,817     | 57     | 0.65% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Iraq        | 473          | 470       | 3      | 0.64% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Cyprus      | 659          | 655       | 4      | 0.61% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Lebanon     | 541          | 538       | 3      | 0.56% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Portugal    | 21,742       | 21,632    | 110    | 0.51% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Slovenia    | 1,098        | 1,093     | 5      | 0.46% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Lithuania   | 934          | 930       | 4      | 0.43% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Norway      | 7,317        | 7,294     | 23     | 0.32% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Kuwait      | 2,254        | 2,249     | 5      | 0.22% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Estonia     | 1,364        | 1,361     | 3      | 0.22% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | USA         | 813,655      | 812,966   | 689    | 0.08% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
    | Japan       | 11,260       | 11,260    | 0      | 0.00% |
    +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#343

Post by celim307 »

lowpro wrote: post #330
hombre_fatal wrote: post #4

I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…

My friend who works at the airport in the Galapagos (GPS) was telling me that no one has gotten paid since the tourism stopped. Luckily she can work on farm, but many can't. The local animal shelter there is now out of food, and the dogs will starve if they don't somehow raise money in the next 3 days or so (@patitasgalapaguenas on instagram, you can donate here [0]). The US is struggling in many ways, but I can't he…

Donated. Cute doggies. Hope your friend and her coworkers are safe.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#344

Post by mlyle »

jupp0r wrote: post #145
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> Blanket lockdown has to end. What's different now vs before the lockdown started regarding flattening the curve? R0 is a little under 1 right now, but what will it be when most things reopen? The goal of the lockdown is to keep R0 under 1 until we have measures in place to permanently mitigate the spread [1]. This means lots of testing and contact tracing, which is not even possible right now with case numbers bein…

Now we should be slightly reopening and targeting an Rt near 1, and driving towards population-based immunity.

We had looser controls from mid-March to the beginning of April. They were evidently effective. Why do we need to stay in a regime of stricter controls-- mayhaps we can loosen a little from ehre and see what happens?

Plenty of jurisdictions have less restrictive orders than the SF Bay Area, and are showing declining case counts.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#345

Post by the_watcher »

irq11 wrote: post #328
01100011 wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a decision for those in government, but personally I see it as a balance of risk vs reward. There is a high risk of infection and relatively little benefit. It is probably better, for society as a whole, to pay the unemployment payments and have long hair for a while. Shampoo doesn't remove the virus from one's lungs or exhalations. I'm not sure what benefit shampoo would have over, say, gloves. PPE is good bu…

” There is a high risk of infection and relatively little benefit. It is probably better, for society as a whole, to pay the unemployment payments and have long hair for a while.” Citation absolutely required . We’re talking about people’s lives here, and there’s zero evidence for this kind of intervention. Everyone says they’re “listening to the science” to make these kinds of decisions, but where is it? Why can’t w…

> there’s zero evidence for this kind of intervention.

Citation absolutely required. While there is definitely a ton of uncertainty around what causes spread, the one thing that there seems to be broad agreement on is that sustained time in a shared pocket of air with an infected person is the most likely transmission vector.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#346

Post by rootusrootus »

annoyingnoob wrote: post #224

Seems like we will need more Fed dollars flowing. Seems like recovery is going to be slow with more pain to come.

If we intend to keep the lockdown going until we reach herd immunity, then Congress needs to open the taps and let the basic income flow. Trillions upon trillions of dollars, for as long as it takes. And they might want to get medicaid eligibility ramped up as well. We don't have to call it single payer.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#347

Post by x0x0 »

hysan wrote: post #210
hombre_fatal wrote: post #4

I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…

It's scary. I was laid-off this month due to COVID-19. Luckily, I am getting paid for one more month because of the WARN Act. I've been looking, but it has been difficult since I'm competing with all the more senior co-workers and peers who were also laid-off. So how is my budget? * I know that there will be a time gap between being able to apply for unemployment and receiving it. The unemployment systems in the US a…

If your wife is working and has health insurance, you probably both qualify for special enrollment onto hers. And as a neighbor said, Covered California (ie CA's Obamacare) will enroll you. The other thing that may help is you have 60 days to enroll into cobra. You can wait until eg day 55 before seeing if you used it, as long as you have the cash to float if something happens and you end up needing to enroll.

FWIW, SF Fire CU in the bay area has credit cards that charge 7.5% rather than the 25%-ish at Capital One or Citi.

Hope this helps in some tiny way.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#348

Post by walterbell »

rootusrootus wrote: post #332
walterbell wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/494892-barr-tell... > Attorney General William Barr on Monday directed federal prosecutors to “be on the lookout” for public health measures put in place amid the coronavirus pandemic that might be running afoul of constitutional rights. In a two-page memorandum to the 93 U.S. attorneys, Barr cautioned that some state and local directives could be infringing on protect…

I'd love to believe that comes from a genuine appreciation of civil liberties and not from an election-year attempt to pander to the current executive's voting base.

Or that lockdowns are free of political calculus.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#349

Post by irq11 »

the_watcher wrote: post #345
irq11 wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

” There is a high risk of infection and relatively little benefit. It is probably better, for society as a whole, to pay the unemployment payments and have long hair for a while.” Citation absolutely required . We’re talking about people’s lives here, and there’s zero evidence for this kind of intervention. Everyone says they’re “listening to the science” to make these kinds of decisions, but where is it? Why can’t w…

> there’s zero evidence for this kind of intervention. Citation absolutely required. While there is definitely a ton of uncertainty around what causes spread, the one thing that there seems to be broad agreement on is that sustained time in a shared pocket of air with an infected person is the most likely transmission vector.

No, that’s not the way it works. If you want to take people’s livelihoods away from them, you have to justify the seizure, not the other way around.

Hypotheses don’t count. Provide actual scientific proof. You’re ruining people’s lives.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#350

Post by greendave »

Lramseyer wrote: post #183

If I am reading the data correctly, considering total number of cases, and current rates of growth, the Bay Area is doing really well compared to the rest of the USA in terms of preventing the spread. [1] There will inevitably be areas that will recover sooner than others, and I could see the Bay Area being one of those places. How is the Bay Area going to handle that? Are these places going to station cops on county…

This problem generalizes to state-lines as well.

Moreover, restrictions are not uniform. For example, San Mateo county restricts movement to within 5 miles of one's residence. Other bay area counties like Santa Clara do not. So legally somebody from Santa Clara county can visit San Mateo county (for exercise), but not the other way around.

A well-managed response would include curbs on movement, be it at the state or county level.

Post reply on HN