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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#341

Post by apatters »

nostromo wrote: post #214
Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's Red Cross supposedly advised Italy yesterday that 'total economic shutdown'[1] is the only way to contain the COVID-19 situation in the country now. It all comes to what part of the curve the country is now, the choice being total lockdown incl. economic shutdown vs aggressive testing. Considering US lapsed on aggressive measures in the beginning and that proper test kits are just being flown in from Italy[2]…

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

You will get tarred and feathered for your comment but you are correct.

Here is why you'll get tarred and feathered, because right now the media is covering the health costs of the virus extensively, but it's not covering the economic costs, which are already unfolding now in the form of businesses dropping vendors and announcing layoffs because their anticipated revenue until further notice is zero.

I've seen so many bros on my feeds who puffed out their chests a month or two ago and said, this virus is not a big deal. Then there were cases in their state and the media was reporting the deluge of new cases in the US and they said oh I was wrong, we need to be on total lockdown, and they're hiding in their apartments.

What will happen next is the jobless claims will come in, which we can clearly predict based on current business activity, and they will break records. I saw one estimate of around 1.5 million jobless claims this week, which is a record. I guess the bros will start squawking about the economic damage in 2-3 weeks once the media has covered this widely and people they know are out of work.

Small businesses (and some large ones too) typically don't have large cash reserves like Google. They also don't know whether this will last for one month or six. So they are in the process today of shutting down and telling everyone to go home without pay, they have to do this until they know what the long-term outlook is.

Nothing changes, most people are sheep, they parrot whatever's in their feed, they are poor at prognostication and self-examination, their attention is occupied by whatever narrative is being shouted most loudly. Nothing you can do.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#342

Post by syshum »

lend000 wrote: post #329
testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Not to mention it isn't really solving the virus situation in most implementations. For example, everybody is packed into the local supermarkets at the same time in my area. Not only is there higher density due to closed restaurants, but also due to reduced hours (somebody thought curfews were a good idea). In their panic, people want "something" to be done. In a couple years, we will be talking about how 90% of poli…

Thank you, I thought I was the only that see these government measures as not only being destructive to the economy but actively make the situation worse

They are shutting down many businesses, and more or less forcing people in to situation where the virus will spread further.

the Panic in society currently right now will do more to spread this virus than anything.

But hey lets destroy our economy as well, that will do wonders to stop the panic

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#343

Post by syshum »

ccktlmazeltov wrote: post #161
testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Considering that people generally go to work even when they're sick in the US, and that people are scared to go to the doctor because of the hidden cost, I don't think your solution is valid. On the other hand, we cannot pause the economy for too long. The damages are already done but what is going to happen if we wait too much? I cannot imagine the level of stress the people working at the government must be under n…

>>Whatever solution they come up with could be the collapse of the US as we know of now.

Pretty sure that ship already sailed.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#344

Post by nitwit005 »

giantDinosaur wrote: post #290
asdff wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just old people though. Infants. Immunocompromised individuals. People with asthma. People undergoing chemotherapy. The narrative that this disease only affects the economically unproductive is dangerous at best, and inhumane at worst.

Honestly, what do you think is going to happen to these people if the economy totally shuts down? it's going to be easy to have a chronic & serious health condition? The same? My feeling is that I'd rather be chronically sick in a good economy than in a depression. What happens when medicine becomes unavailable due to supply chains being cut off?

Let's assume for a moment that governments did nothing.

Obviously, the illness itself was always going to cause an economic blow by killing and sickening people.

And then there would be damage from behavioral changes. People were pulling kids out of schools, canceling events, and avoiding travel without being ordered to do so.

It doesn't seem like the "good economy" you suggest was ever an option.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#345

Post by ivalm »

SamReidHughes wrote: post #319
ivalm wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a difference between debt as a way to raise capital for growth vs debt as a way to return unearned money to shareholders.

Who do you think is loaning the money?

Capital market participants? Lots of people buy bonds... I am not sure where you are going

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#346

Post by syshum »

faitswulff wrote: post #18
lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but…

I more or less agree with a temporary shut down however I see the quote all the time, and it is a stupid statement, because you equally can not have a life with out a livelihood

This the the doctors delima, that does not factor in quality of life in to the "life" equation, life with no quality is not much of a life.

Further I have big problems with the Governer or the government making that choice, it should not be the government choice of my livelihood over my life, in either direction. No only is it shocking how fast people willing toss the economy aside and expect government checks to save them, it is also shocking how fast people simply toss aside all civil liberties.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#347

Post by mac01021 »

cortesoft wrote: post #312
zouhair wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

Ok, you can pay them money, but what are they going to BUY with that money? If people aren't working to produce things, there isn't going to be anything to buy with the money we pay people. That is how you get runaway inflation.

They don't need lots of money to buy lots of stuff. They need to keep themselves fed and keep the electricity on while they're out of work. Food and electricity are two things that will still be produced throughout any "shutdown".

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#348

Post by giantDinosaur »

PedroBatista wrote: post #335
giantDinosaur wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, what do you think is going to happen to these people if the economy totally shuts down? it's going to be easy to have a chronic & serious health condition? The same? My feeling is that I'd rather be chronically sick in a good economy than in a depression. What happens when medicine becomes unavailable due to supply chains being cut off?

So what’s your proposed solution? Let’s get back to work, let the fire burn and who dies, dies? It’s a solution ( it wouldn’t work the way you think, but it’s an option), but at least admit it clearly and live with it.

I'm sure that accusing someone with righteous indignation here feels edifying, but it indicates to me that people are perfectly okay with trading on lives - future ones. At least admit it clearly and live with it.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#349

Post by yibg »

whb07 wrote: post #222
yibg wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit disturbing. We should what, just let the old people die (or at least ~10% of them)?

Where did you get 10% from? We should treat them as best as possible but not by stopping the world. Look up the actuarial tables for a 70 year old. Living another year is significantly different than for a 45 year old. Then lookup the survival rates for a 70 year old with influenza, suddenly the numbers keeping you up at night start looking weak in comparison.

Numbers vary a bit but looks like death rate of confirmed cases of covid 19 for 70-79 year olds is 8% and over 80 is something like 14%.

Flu varies by season but it’s no where near that for the same age group.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#350

Post by titzer »

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

> CEOs should be in jail

Will. Never. Happen.

Banks committed outright fraud in 2009, by the dozens, by the hundreds. Thousands of people should have gone to jail. Not a single. Goddamn. One. Did.

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