341–350 of 499 posts
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And, if they try to ramp up the production too quickly, will we see a return of Covid-19 due to people in close proximity again?
Not if a substantial number of them now have antibodies against it. More realistically, even if enough of them have antibodies to create herd immunity. (Via making it impractical for the virus to transmit to a vulnerable host)
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Bank of Japan had been achieving new heights of monetary policy year after year for the last 30 years with little impact on real economy.
BoJ is the biggest proof that the traditional notion that creating money generates inflation is incorrect. The issue is that inflation is narrowly defined, and will only happen when people buy daily commodities. Inflation in stocks is not considered to be inflation, although prices will go up the same way.
This is the start of the next Global Financial Crisis folks. It's not hard to see the pieces in motion now: 1 - The Q1 supply shock is going to be a temporary thing. They'll recover alright after causing some companies to miss their Q1 earnings. If this was the only effect, we would recover just fine here later this year, but... 2 - Coronavirus is just getting started in the US and Europe. If it spreads widely, and u…
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> inflation has arguably been far too low for far too long anyway... Do you not need a roof over your head, health insurance, a car, college education, etc? Inflation has been rampant, it's just not apparent in manufactured goods because the actual cost of production dropped rapidly with offshoring and technological progress. Without significant inflation, we would have seen a steady march down of consumer prices, as…
If housing prices are too high, it's because there are too many dollars chasing too few houses. Fix one or the other. The easiest and most humane option is to just let people build more housing and stop with the stasis-producing process you see in places like San Francisco
So what you're really seeing is that physical infrastructure cannot keep up with the massive change in the US from a manufacturing and agricultural economy to a service and information economy.
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People keep saying that responses are irrational but we know next to nothing about this virus. We don’t have a firm understanding of how deadly it is, how long it takes to incubate, how easily it can be spread, or what long term damage it could do to people who recover. There are reports of kidney damage and damage to fertility among men who have recovered. Are those true? We don’t know. We have no idea. The rational…
No, we know quite a bit about it at this point. The incubation period can range from 1-14 days but is 5 days on average[1][2]. The virus spreads through physical contact with commonly touched surfaces and through the air via droplets of saliva or mucus[2]. The deadliness of the disease is also becoming clear as time progresses. The current fatality rate is ~3% (likely overestimated) and most (almost all) deaths are e…
Case in point the incubation period from your own link. "Most estimates of the incubation period range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates are updated as more information becomes available."
How long does it remain on the surface. "It is not certain how long the virus survices on surfaces."
Can asymptomatic people spread coronavirus? "How often asymptomatic transmission is occurring is unclear."
How deadly is the coronavirus? "We don’t yet know."
Can I catch the virus by eating food prepared by others? "It's not clear if this is possible."
TLDR: We have decent guesses in some categories and in others we don't know at all. People acting like they know for sure the details of this virus are lying at worst and merely uninformed at best.
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I'm not quite following. Are you only expecting experts to comment here? If so, are you an expert in the frequency and type of textual errors and how that relates to expertise?
The issue is when you have what currently is the top comment for this article, written in a manner which implies that the writer knows what they are talking about (i.e. /u/airstrike using terminology like "after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there"). I'm calling into question /u/airstrike's legitimacy due to not being able to differentiate between monetary an…
I will note that airstrike is not "unable to differentiate the two". They have quite clearly gone on to demonstrate that ability.
It is important to make sure false information doesn't circulate. But I don't think that excuses being "harsh".
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Only because the toolset is artificially restricted for ideological reasons. Fiscal responses (having the government spend actual money, either on things like infrastructure it by just handing it out to the population, which will then largely spend that money as they see fit) rather than monetary policy responses (reduce rates and hope that people will borrow more) are known to work well in most cases. The Corona vir…
Keynes famously said you could hire people to dig ditches and it would stimulate the economy. However, if we were to take aggressive action on Climate Change, there’s a lot of potential jobs there. A massive potential stimulus. Also, you know, public funding of basic research which could explore, I don’t know, pandemic response, new therapeutics, etc. Like you said, ideological barriers are what’s keeping us stuck. B…
This is the start of the next Global Financial Crisis folks. It's not hard to see the pieces in motion now: 1 - The Q1 supply shock is going to be a temporary thing. They'll recover alright after causing some companies to miss their Q1 earnings. If this was the only effect, we would recover just fine here later this year, but... 2 - Coronavirus is just getting started in the US and Europe. If it spreads widely, and u…
This addiction to debt has got to stop, and unfortunately it sometimes takes cold, hard pain for some to learn a lesson.
For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…
What would be the endgame here?
- Signaling that the Fed is willing to get involved to stabilize market prices (by making capital cheaper) is meant to calm markets and give participants comfort about making decisions today that they could optionally wait to decide. If everyone goes into a holding pattern, liquidity is impacted, which can cause all sorts of unpredictable price movement.
- it is a wealth transfer from one group to another. The beneficiaries are existing debtors (mostly firms) and firms who benefit most from cheaper capital.
- it gives the Fed slightly more influence over the outcome of the 2020 election, since reversal of the Covid-19 rate decrease can be timed to create desirable optics as the election approaches. Much research has been done about the most critical time period prior to the election when "it's the economy, stupid" is most true.
We're basically running out of tools to combat an actual financial crisis. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp
I'm pretty worried about this. I don't think this rate cut makes any sense. You can't stimulus away a virus.
He's just trying to stimulus himself a re-election.