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WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

mattstoller.substack.com

341–350 of 440 posts

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#341

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

"A bold assumption with no citations."

https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-parado...

The author of the Yale LJ Note assumed that there is in fact a conscious desire on the part of investors to fund companies pursuing a growth over profit strategy.

If her assumption is correct, then there is no precedent for this type of investor behaviour. That explains the lack of citations.

Here are some quotes from the Note:

"Ironically, the logic that is motivating investors - the idea that it is worth encouraging platforms to bleed money to establish a dominant position and capture the market, at which point these firms will be able to recoup those losses - maps on to the logic underpinning current predatory pricing doctrine. The main issue is how narrowly the law currently conceives of recoupment, which does not account for how Amazon can leverage its multiple lines of business."

"One might dismiss this phenomenon as irrational investor exuberance. But another way to read it is at face value: the reason investors value Amazon and Uber so highly is because they believe these platforms will, eventually, generate huge returns."

More quotes:

"First, the economics of platform markets create incentives for a company to pursue growth over profits, a strategy that investors have rewarded. Under these conditions, predatory pricing becomes highly rational - even as existing doctrine treats it as irrational and therefore implausible."

"Despite the company's history of thin returns, investors have zealously backed it: Amazon's shares trade at over 900 times diluted earnings, making it the most expensive stock in the Standard & Poor's 500.10 As one reporter marveled, "The company barely ekes out a profit, spends a fortune on expansion and free shipping and is famously opaque about its business operations. Yet investors . . . pour into the stock."11 "

"Just as striking as Amazon's lack of interest in generating profit has been investors' willingness to back the company.195 With the exception of a few quarters in 2014, Amazon's shareholders have poured money in despite the company's penchant for losses. On a regular basis, Amazon would report losses, and its share price would soar.196 As one analyst told the New York Times, "Amazon's stock price doesn't seem to be correlated to its actual experience in any way."197"

[Diapers example] "Through its purchase of Quidsi, Amazon eliminated a leading competitor in the online sale of baby products. Amazon achieved this by slashing prices and bleeding money,306 losses that its investors have given it a free pass to incur - and that a smaller and newer venture like Quidsi, by contrast, could not maintain."

"Relatedly, Amazon's expansion into the delivery sector also raises questions about the Chicago School's limited conception of entry barriers. The company's capacity for losses - the permission it has won from investors to show negative profits - has been key in enabling Amazon to achieve outsized growth in delivery and logistics. Matching Amazon's network would require a rival to invest heavily and - in order to viably compete - offer free or otherwise below-cost shipping."

"In interviews with reporters, venture capitalists say there is no appetite to fund firms looking to compete with Amazon on physical delivery.354 In this way, Amazon's ability to sustain losses creates an entry barrier for any firm that does not enjoy the same privilege."

"Given that online platforms operate in markets where network effects and control over data solidify early dominance, a company looking to compete in these markets must seek to capture them. The most effective way is to chase market share and drive out one's rivals - even if doing so comes at the expense of short-term profits, since the best guarantee of long-term profits is immediate growth. Due to this dynamic, striving to maximize market share at the expense of one's rivals makes predation highly rational; indeed, it would be irrational for a business not to frontload losses in order to capture the market. Recognizing that enduring early losses while aggressively expanding can lock up a monopoly, investors seem willing to back this strategy."

"In essence, investors have given Amazon a free pass to grow without any pressure to show profits. The firm has used this edge to expand wildly and dominate online commerce. The idea that investors are willing to fund predatory growth in winner-take-all markets also holds in the case of Uber."

"Though this trend departs from the history on which I focus, my analysis stands given that I am interested in (1) the losses Amazon formerly undertook to establish dominant positions in certain sectors, (2) the investor backing and enthusiasm that Amazon consistently maintained despite these losses, and (3) whether these facts challenge the assumption - embedded in current doctrine - that losing money is only desirable (and hence rational) if followed by recoupment."

"Amazon often flip-flops between showing profits and losses, depending on how aggressively it decides to plow money into big new business bets. Investors have granted the company much wider leeway to do so than other technology companies of its size often receive, because of its history of delivering outsize growth."

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#342

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

I hope this doesn't get entirely buried at this point, but I think you bring up something interesting with driving marginal costs down. Ostensibly both Uber and Lyft are doing the same thing, but with the item that will bring the marginal cost down being self-driving cars. They've both bet big in order to capture the market, because it's likely that whoever owns the market before that transition will own it afterward…

The Economist had a good essay on taxi companies going back to the 1600's. Basically it's always a race to the bottom and no one wins for long. Four hundred years of history there through all kinds of changes in transportation.

Paywall: https://www.economist.com/business/2019/04/27/can-uber-ever-...

Really excellent post by OP - thank you.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#344
Trying to corner a market is not a new idea. A forgotten incident from the 1980s: the Hunts brothers thought they could corner the market on silver. They spent about $6 billion buying up silver futures. That's about $30 billion in today's money. They briefly controlled the majority of all the silver coming out of silver mines, and thought they could dictate terms to industries that needed silver (such as the photography industry, which needed silver for film development). The price of silver skyrocketed. However, over the last century, silver has become fairly democratic. Most families have some items of silver lying around. When the silver price peaked, millions of families began rummaging around their homes, finding what silver they could, and then selling it. The price of silver crashed, and the Hunts brothers were forced to declare bankruptcy.

Cornering a market works if the supply of something is really limited and new supplies can not be quickly created. Maybe WeWork thought it could do this with office rentals? If so, it seems it lost the bet.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#345

I got halfway through, but I'm stopping. There's some valid points in here, but I don't find the author credible. > If you know Dimon’s actual reputation, him getting suckered isn’t surprising. Jamaie "doesn't give a shit about Bitcoin" Dimon. So he won't just hop on any bandwagon. > [Masayoshi Son is] an owner of Sprint, and he’s currently trying to force an illegal merger of Sprint with T-Mobile Not sure how it's "…

>Jamie "doesn't give a shit about Bitcoin" Dimon. So he won't just hop on any bandwagon.

Don't you mean Jamie "we'll setup up our own cryptocurrency[0]" Dimon?

[0] https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/news/digital-coin-payments

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#346
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not paying sales tax on mail order was the norm. The time period you're talking about, Amazon, and the internet in general, hadn't penetrated to the general public. 1995-96 was just when a small minority of people were waking up to the idea they needed to be on the internet and getting their first direct PPP dialup account. People still went to physical book stores because, for one thing, you couldn't preview a book…

> Not paying sales tax on mail order was the norm. You're forgetting that mail order wasn't the norm--even if you ordered from a catalog you picked it up in person at the store. So, not collecting tax on mail order wasn't a big deal until Amazon flattened bookstores with it.

Huh? That’s not how I remember it at all. You ordered from the catalog and then waited three weeks. If you were going to pick up in the store, why not just go to the store instead of calling an 800 number and reading off your credit card info? There was a whole Seinfeld episode about how the only mail anyone got anymore was catalogs.

Per FRED[1], monthly mail order sales doubled from 1992 to the end of 96.

Obviously it was nothing like today, but mail order was, like, a thing.

[1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM4541USS

*Also, I learned in my google rabbit hole about this that it’s a 1992 Supreme Court decision that confirmed that mail order retailers didn’t have to collect state tax unless they had a physical presence in the state.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#347
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with the idea of profiting later on via the surviving monopoly I don't understand...if you undercut your competitors so you're the sole survivor, I don't see how profiting is a obvious end result. When you return prices to market value wouldn't competitors just appear again. Is predatory pricing really such a bad thing, I'd assume the market would just corrects itself later?

Go look at the history of Diapers.com, now owned by Amazon.

Diapers was purchased by Amazon -- not run out of business.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#348
post #78

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

> with the idea of profiting later on via the surviving monopoly I don't understand...if you undercut your competitors so you're the sole survivor, I don't see how profiting is a obvious end result. When you return prices to market value wouldn't competitors just appear again. Is predatory pricing really such a bad thing, I'd assume the market would just corrects itself later?

Competing with a monopolist takes a lot of capital. Where would those competitors get it from? Investors would probably prefer to hold stock in a company that can extract monopoly rents, all else being equal.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, well then go open book store. Online or brick and mortar. There's no money in it, because Amazon has such as HUGE advantage in mindshare, pricing and delivery that you can't compete. Does a book store have a network effect? No. But it's hard to sell something for more than the dominant competitor without a compelling reason.

My mother-in-law did just that and is doing fine, thank you very much. May not be the world-beating "money in it" as you define it, but for the small business she's running it's viable.

Ask her what she thinks of Amazon and how she views the future.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#350

I really wish the author had sensed the limits of his argument, because I think the point he's trying to make is basically correct. He's just stretching it to the breaking point by invoking Amazon and the subprime crisis. If he'd left the stretch goals out of it, it would have stood as a perfect foil to the avalanche of "meta-meta-meta analysis of everything except where the money's gonna come from" in the Stratecher…

There's a line in the Stratechery article that makes perfect sense in the context of WeWork: "Uber without an at-scale competitor is a much more valuable company."

It's the same point Stoller is trying to make: Financiers "find big markets and then dump capital into one player in such a market who can underprice until he becomes the dominant remaining actor."

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