Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

341–350 of 477 posts

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#341

Post by jbellis »

gamblor956 wrote: post #244
siculars wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take issue with your thesis. I was once standing in Marin county overlooking the Golden Gate bridge, there I read a plaque describing how the bridge was built ahead of schedule and under budget - in the 1930s (no computers!). Behind the Golden gate bridge in the distance you see the Bay bridge, built with tremendous cost overruns and delays measured in billions of dollars and many years, respectively. I'll make…

I take issue with your thesis. Every day, I ride to work on the Metro Expo line, which was built on time (actually early) and only delayed opening because a private company couldn't get its shit together and build the rail cars on time. I'll make the case that, as a nation, we're doing fine with the ability to deliver civil infrastructure projects on time and on budget, and to manage them once they are operational, i…

We're not doing fine.

"New York’s Second Avenue Subway cost $2.6 billion per mile... The approximate range of underground rail construction costs in continental Europe and Japan is between $100 million per mile, at the lowest end, and $1 billion at the highest. Most subway lines cluster in the range of $200 million to $500 million per mile."

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/why-its-so-ex...

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#342

Post by philwelch »

pzone wrote: post #202
tootie wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I see stories like this one I take it with a grain of salt because I'll be the MTA and state legislature are basically just fighting their budget battle in the media. If the MTA makes a big stink in the media, they can swing voters to demand more funding and more restrictions on ride sharing. I'm probably being cynical but maybe not.

The US really does have a problem, and it seems to be related to particularly inefficient and uncompetitive contracting and caused by poor governance structures. The fact this battle has to happen in the media at all instead of having a clear chain of decision-making is evidence something is wrong.

I’m not sure how you can establish a “clear chain of decision-making” for public spending that doesn’t involve the public. At the very least, when the Grand Administrator for Public Transporation Spending in the Greater Tri-State Area is standing for re-election, or when the elected officials who appointed the Grand Administrator are up for re-election, this becomes a political issue and hence there is an incentive for one side or the other to get their point of view published in the media, so why not get out there ahead of time?

Anecdotally, it sure seems to me like one of the biggest political issues in, say, the UK is whether the NHS is over or underpaying staff, whether they will have more or less money under Conservative policies or Labour policies, and so forth.

The US has multiple levels of mutually distrustful and uncooperative governments, and at many of those levels, high levels of direct democracy especially when it comes to budgetary issues. So there is some waste there.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#343

Post by SatvikBeri »

pzone wrote: post #224
DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

In Tokyo, the rail transit system (including subways) is operated by a network of private companies. These train operators make a net profit from fares and other revenues, and the system is generally well liked by its customers. Even if the idea of privatization makes you cringe, the idea that public transit is inevitably a money pit or loss leader is misguided. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/10/why-toky…

Well, Japan privatized rail in the 90s, well after the majority of the rail was built using billions of dollars of investment by the Japanese government. So I don't know if it's really correct to call this a success of privatization, considering that the major costs were basically socialized.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#344

Post by illirik »

TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #255
dwaltrip wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars and roads have plenty of problems, sure, but I have no idea what you mean by this "illusion of freedom".

He's likely referring to how (some) people enjoy driving because of the sense of freedom & control it gives them. But he is asserting that this is just an illusion. Honestly, I feel the same way, since most time I spend driving I spend sitting in traffic or something.

I used to feel that way, too, but since I moved to Seattle, I traded my car in for a motorcycle, and that feeling of freedom has returned in full force. Maybe it is just a different illusion, but the wind and the noise on my morning commute wake me up better than any coffee I've ever had. Getting forty-some-odd miles to the gallon on a vehicle that can go 130 MPH ain't bad, either.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#345

Post by olingern »

I lived in NYC for five years and the decline in metro service was significant between 2016-2018. From most reports, it was due to faulty switches or expiring subway cars.

Fast forward to living in Tokyo, the difference is night and day (except for the rush hour crowdedness). Maintenance is done every night (somewhere) and all lines shut down between 12 and 1 am. It's super inconvenient, and this is where I applaud NYC for allowing me to get home every late night I spent out. I would hope there's some middle-ground in there, though.

The MTA is looking at this in such a primitive manner, though. I know (from my time there) that track work is not efficient. It looked to be a lot of sit and wait until something is ready. Tokyo metro workers are _always_ doing something. It's almost if they have clear defined goals that they must accomplish before their day starts.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#346

Post by ALittleLight »

gameswithgo wrote: post #265
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that most of the wear and tear on our roads isn't caused by people's cars. People pay much more than their fair share of road maintenance via gas taxes etc than the industries that cause the most damage to the roads. Semis cause 1,400x more wear than cars [1]. [1] https://www.lrrb.org/pdf/201432.pdf

it is my potatoes in the trucks. I can pay the road tax, or more for potato. doesn't matter.

It does matter though. If the cost of road wear was added to the products that caused them those products would become more expensive and sell less. Suddenly there's an incentive for Potato Inc. and friends to figure out how to transport such that there's less wear etc.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#347

Post by ALittleLight »

illirik wrote: post #344
TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's likely referring to how (some) people enjoy driving because of the sense of freedom & control it gives them. But he is asserting that this is just an illusion. Honestly, I feel the same way, since most time I spend driving I spend sitting in traffic or something.

I used to feel that way, too, but since I moved to Seattle, I traded my car in for a motorcycle, and that feeling of freedom has returned in full force. Maybe it is just a different illusion, but the wind and the noise on my morning commute wake me up better than any coffee I've ever had. Getting forty-some-odd miles to the gallon on a vehicle that can go 130 MPH ain't bad, either.

Yeah, plus you don't incur the health risks associated with dangerous coffee.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#348

Post by dnautics »

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

Public transport in Singapore is privatised (well less of it has been as of last year) and it's the cheapest, cleanest, and most reliable system in operation today.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#350

Post by thedufer »

ReptileMan wrote: post #325
em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorting that wikipedia table by recovery ratio, I see most of the profitable ones are in East Asia and distance based: Osaka (OMTB) 137%, Hong Kong MTR 124%, Osaka (Hankyu Railway) 123%, Tokyo Metro 119%, London Underground 107%, Singapore (SMRT) 101%, Taipei Metro 100%. Clearly it is possible to have profitable subways, so I don't think we should drop profitability as a goal.

Yeah, but they offer extensive coverage and are reliable - also somewhat expensive. To get such thing for NY - you need to drill a lot more tunnels and fast and make sure trains run on time.

I don't know about the others, but Hong Kong's system has far fewer stops and is mostly cheaper (it's distance-based and exceeds New York's flat fee at the high end) than New York's. The reliability difference rings true, though.
Post reply on HN