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Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

reuters.com

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Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#341

Post by valuearb »

toyg wrote: post #311
valuearb wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the 1970s the 747 averaged 32 orders per year. In the 1980s it averaged 43 orders per year. It peaked in 1990, taking in 122 orders that year alone, but from 1992-2000 orders dropped to average 27 per year. Ironically in 1993, the year A380 design work began, the 747 had it's worst sales year ever (till then), with only 2 orders. The A380 was approved for production in 2000. In 2005, Boeing announced the 747-8 to…

> The market did not grow I think part of the parent's point is that, even in a stagnant market, Airbus basically took half of it from what was previously a monopolist. Those 43 orders per year used to be all for Boeing, and now they only get half. That's a victory of sort, regardless of where the market is going for both companies.

Again, it’s not a victory, it’s been a horrific loss. Airbus disintegrated $30B of their own capital, while Boeing walked away after spending only $2.5B more.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#342

Post by valuearb »

inferiorhuman wrote: post #256
valuearb wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a lie. Bombardiers planes don’t compete with any Boeing planes. Yet still Boeing flexed their lobbyists.

The risk isn't that Boeing competes with Bombardier right now. The risk is that the Bombardier will stretch the C-series and create a CS500 that will compete directly with the 737. You can't do that with the Embraer.

That’s a risk our trading rules aren’t supposed to address.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#343

Post by rmccue »

adrianratnapala wrote: post #282
rconti wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Emirates has to use the hub and spoke model because their home country is so small.

There is also set of markets that are just always going to use it. I live in Australia, so when I go to Europe, it is always via at least one hub airport. Often Dubai. Same story if I go to the east coast US. Even if this model is becoming less important, airlines like Emirates and SIA will be in a good position to dominate what is left of it.

But thanks to the 787’s extended range variants, that’s not necessarily going to be the case for long. Qantas starts Perth to London direct in March on the 787.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#344

Post by m23khan »

One of the reasons A380 is struggling is because of lack of airports around the World that can handle such a large aircraft for passenger usage. It really does require an upgrade to an existing International Airport (those built way before A380 came along and are located in poor countries) in terms of passenger bridges and other such facilities.

Other than that, in the new age of aviation, smaller jets such as A319, A321, embraer's jets, Bombardier's Cseries, and even jets like 737MAX, 737-700+ are taking away a lot of traditional routes that would have been typically serviced by large aircraft.

It seems that now (barring transoceanic routes), smart routing of flights typically involve increased frequencies between two cities using smaller aircrafts meanwhile providing additional scheduling options for a more busy modern man.

IMHO, A380, Airbus's superguppy, and 747s should be aggressively and exclusively developed and marketed towards cargo airlines and towards military customers (think military transport) around the World and including companies like Amazon.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#345

Post by valuearb »

tankenmate wrote: post #305
notahacker wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speculatively, by (i) having a more negative effect on the profitability of their major competitor in a duopoly and (ii) by having indirect positive effects on their sales of other aircraft. As unsuccessful airliner programs go, the A380 wasn't that bad, with over 200 actually delivered. Though it would have looked a lot worse if it wasn't for Emirates There are also likely technologies developed for the A380 which w…

Not just technologies but also operational gains. The problems with the development of the A380 forced Airbus to synchronise their CAD/CAM software and development practices between their previously semi-autonomous offices in Germany and France. It also led to further organisational rationalisation and the removal of French and German government influence on commercial decisions. It led to the removal of a lot of ide…

Methinks the operational gains could be done for 1/100th or less of the $30B+ the A380 cost. Failing at a huge project isn't a way to get governments to back off, it's a way to get them to realize they should stop funding you.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#346

Post by valuearb »

mpweiher wrote: post #234
valuearb wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making a money losing investment isn't a "tough spot". You are only damned if you choose to do it. Not only did they know that 747 sales were falling, they knew point to point was becoming more popular. It was a really easy decision and they blew it. Engineering the world's greatest aircraft is an addictive endeavor, but the numbers have to work and they never did.

> 747 sales were falling A380 was officially started in 1993. 747 orders per year, starting 1993 2, 16, 32, 56, 36, 15, 35, 26, 16, 17, 4, 10, 43, 72 I don't see "falling". At best, I see cycles.

BTW: I forgot that Boeing wasn't the only company to understand how poor the prospects were for the Super Jumbo market. McDonnell Douglas designed a new super jumbo just before Airbus it did, but saw the writing on the wall when they tested customer demand, and canceled it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_MD-12

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#347

Post by inferiorhuman »

valuearb wrote: post #342
inferiorhuman wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk isn't that Boeing competes with Bombardier right now. The risk is that the Bombardier will stretch the C-series and create a CS500 that will compete directly with the 737. You can't do that with the Embraer.

That’s a risk our trading rules aren’t supposed to address.

Agreed.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#348

Post by myrandomcomment »

samfisher83 wrote: post #325
jsjohnst wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lets say there are 52 windows The actual number is almost double that, but that doesn’t negate your point. More than weight, I think it was seen as a “nicety”. I think with the new Gen 2 (and soon Gen 3) Windows, people won’t mind them as much as the newer generations are MUCH darker.

If there were a 100 windows lets assume there are 1 on each side so that is 50 rows. lets say first 10 rows are first class. That would leave 40 rows. Its 9 seats across that is 360 people. There 1st class rows have 4 across 787 does not hold 360+40 people. Also it doesn't get all the way dark. I just feel it was a piece of engineering that doesn't need to be there in my opinion.

Because:

1. Removing weight. 2. Removing moving parts. 3. Removing cleaning cost

Does not seem like a good idea?

I have friends that are involved in aircraft design. They tell me they count every tie wrap for wiring vs. weight requirements. The remove as many moving parts as they can to cut mantaince cost.

I worked at a company that made a complex piece of networking equipment. On the board they spent a ton of time engineering out caps. They only cost a few cents per board. The cost was not the issue. It turns out that removing as many as they could upped the MTBF by 40%.

Everything is never that simple. Boeing did not just add this type of window because they thought it was cool.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#349

Post by exidy »

stephen_g wrote: post #327
i386 wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Qantas are currently replacing 747s with a fleet of A380s and 777s

Qantas don’t have any 777s (or any 777 orders). I think that going so hard on the A380 and never getting any 777s was one of their biggest mistakes. Now they’re doing better having cancelled their remaining A380 orders (after they got 12) and have started using the A330 on some routes with smaller demand and have finally got their first 787. That, and their Emirates alliance have finally turned things around (they we…

What do you mean "started using the A330" ? It has been Qantas's go-to medium-haul airliner more than 10 years, long enough they they've all been refurbished recently with "A380 like" interiors.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#350

Post by rizwank »

masklinn wrote: post #196
zitterbewegung wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not let the market decide ? Supersonic flight wasn’t cost effective . Maybe the A380 will have the same outcome ? It seems like ORD knew this .

> Why not let the market decide ? Supersonic flight wasn’t cost effective. Supersonic flight was mostly killed by US political decisions, not by economics.

Citation please.
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