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SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

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Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which ceases to exist entirely after a mega-solar-flare. Gold persists.

Unless it also disables the security systems on your gold storage or erases your GLD shares or we forget we'd all agreed gold is valuable.

physical, bitchez!

(sorry, spend too much time on zerohedge...)

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#342
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't look at bitcoin as a currency I look at it as a fungible reserve like Gold or a Rolex. Both of those things usually appreciate in value, especially in uncertain times; I'll be using this price decrease to buy more I think.

In highly uncertain times, for example when civilization would be reverted back to the Middle Ages or a Fukushima/911 event, bitcoin would be of lesser use due to lack of an Internet connection. People need food and water in those circumstances, not bitcoin or Rolexes.

yep. 25 cents per round of ammo will sound like $1 per Bitcoin nowadays.

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#343
post #328

Bitcoin just went from a high of 1327.1926 to 995.9575 in the blink of an eye. Wow. From the ruling.... > First, the exchange must have surveillance-sharing agreements with significant markets for trading the underlying commodity or derivatives on that commodity. And second, those markets must be regulated. > Based on the record before it, the Commission believes that the significant markets for bitcoin are unregulat…

Look at the price now. I would encourage anyone trying to read into the future of bitcoin based upon daily min/max to learn about the difference between day traders and hodlers. At this point, hodlers have been through so many scares that there is very little left that can weaken their hand. The volume this week is actually down. It is only a handful of people trying to intentionally spike the price, and trade off th…

But the ETF isn't going to distinguish between day-traders and long-term holders. In particular, Gemini's price was also in the $1300s before the news, and dropped significantly. If Gemini was giving the hodlers' price, that would be different.

If a handful of people trying to spike the price and trade off the news can cause BTC-USD to be 30% more than what it "should" be (i.e., what the price would be in a high-information, high-liquidity, low-shenanigans market), then the SEC is absolutely correct to say that the ETF is too wild to be approvable at present.

For comparison, on June 24 (Brexit), GBP-USD fell from about $1.50 to about $1.35, a 10% drop, and that was (IMO) much more significant news about the long-term future of the pound.

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#345
I very much agree with SEC's decesion, just for other reasons.

The usuall ETFs are baskets of bonds, stocks and commodities. Regardless of the level of volatility, they are all priced per the capacity of those stocks/bonds/commodities to create economical value. That means you have a solid economical logic to price them. Of course, supply and demand impacts the price, but even if no one wants to buy a certain stock, that stock has a marketable value. You can take the assets of that company, sell them and divine the cash by the number of stocks out there. Without going to too much details, I fail to understand how bitcoin can be treated like a stock/bond/commodities? Bitcoin value is purely based on the supply and demand forces. Without supply and demand, bitcoin has no value. On its own, it has no value generation power and therefore cannot be compared or traded like a stock, neither can be packaged into an ETF.

As much as I do not like to agree with SEC, this one is a right decesion!

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#346

What is the best real-time source for Bitcoin's value?

https://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

If you want to have a lot more rich data that forms the data-points, and you can download :

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price/6m/USD?c=e&t=l

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#347

that was great to watch, went from $1300 to $975 in about 90 seconds. We'll see how long the dead cat lasts. See you at $600.

Currently at 1180.

https://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

Same place it was three days ago. You could have made a lot of money if you had followed your instincts.

Or you could have lost it all.

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but we're talking about a loss of 30% of its value in under 5 minutes. Brexit vote to the GBP wasn't even that bad.

Eh, most of us were expecting it to fall worse.

Yep. Was picking it to hit the 7's. Quite surprised. Still think it is going to move sideways for a few months though. But hey, I was wrong about the scale of the post-ETF drop, so maybe I'm wrong about that. By any measure, bitcoin has much more support than I thought it did.

Re: SEC Rejects Rule Change for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund [pdf]

#350
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deep out of the money options have optionality whereas BitMex contracts are delta 1 products. They have literally nothing in common. The relevant difference in this case is that the option caps your upside.

My point is that risky financial plays are still possible even in the SEC regulated market. Maybe I misunderstood the parent poster though.

As per SEC requirements, brokers are required to quiz you to makes sure you understand the risks involved in trading derivatives.

Furthermore, selling naked options (Level 3 access) without hedging or verticals requires certain capital and margin requirements, I do not think it is easily possible to get 50x levered in options alone - you'd probably need /ES futures for that.

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