341–350 of 369 posts
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fb started out with younger ppl, and then gradually older ppl got on, tell now when like my feed is blown up by my grandma.
Oy, that. Honestly, with all their algos I'm confused why Facebook lets one friend cover my entire feed in Shah Rukh Khan. I don't even know who SRK is!
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> my job and lifestyle have caused me to detach from a significant chunk of society Yeah, the 13-21-year-old chunk of society. Do you, as a Linux Kernel Developer, happen to be within that demographic? Even their IPO roadshow video (which I see has now been removed) talks about their "13-34-year-old" user base, and then emphasizes the far higher levels of engagement and far higher potential among the lower half of th…
>Yeah, the 13-21-year-old chunk of society MySpace had that one nailed, and look how that turned out for them. This is exactly the kind of demographic that is susceptible to fads and keeps leaving dead services in its wake.
The SNAP thesis I like the best is - "Twitter-like growth with FB ARPU". The monetization potential of this company is massive (geofilters, sponsored content, hardware with spectacles, etc.) and there's no direct comp for that. Pokemon Go showed us the bleeding of digital to physical, and Snap has the potential to be the first company to unlock value from it (ex. geofilters). Plus you can view SNAP as a call option o…
>Pokemon Go showed us the bleeding of digital to physical It also showed how quickly a popular phenomenon can loose cultural relevance. >when something exciting happens, which app do you open first? One that doesn't automatically delete the photo I took of the exciting thing by default
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The hard part with these things is that in some ways progress and growth is non-linear. So Snap has (by all accounts) done a masterful job of launching their first hardware product: https://www.spectacles.com/ How do you value that? I'm of the opinion that AR style glasses are the technology that will be the next tech wave post mobile phones (FB buying Oculus and Google pushing so much money on MagicLeap is explained…
These cheap plastic glasses have the cultural staying power of the pet rock.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Rock
>> Pet Rock is a collectible conceived in 1975
We're still talking about it forty years later. I knew exactly what you meant by pet rock without having to search for it.
Ignorance is bliss in a world where half the people at YC could develop the core snap chat app in a week.
> The focus here is on the tech and not the market. A pet rock was 'worthless' (the rock was just a rock) but the connection with a generation was valuable. So often in our business we look at something that we feel like we could build (or could be easily built) and a valuation, and focus on those two things. The parts we don't see we give little value to (350M snaps? Seriously? That is a boat load of engagement). Making anything that get 350M 13-23 yr olds engaged is a pretty huge deal. That is what is valuable with Snapchat, not the tech.
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And that's not their only product: Bitmoji has been the #1 iPhone app overall since January 11, and it was already the #1 iPhone Utility app since July 22, 2016 (Log in to see) - https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/bitmoji-keyboard-your-... https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/top/united-states/overall/... And yesterday on eBay, 22 pairs of Spectacles were sold, with one pair went for $229 and 2 others went for $200 e…
Trend moving from So(cial)-Lo(cal)-Mo(bile) to AI-AR-Dr(one)-SDR(self driving)
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Well no, it depends on what you are waiting on. Some of the worst horror stories are from people that exercised their options and then waited a year to sell the stock to qualify for long term capital gains. Then the stock subsequently crashed so they owed a massive AMT tax for the difference between strike price and price on exercise and got almost nothing from the actual stock sale.
US tax law is bonkers
This $27.8 billion dollar valuation tells me that somewhere along the line, my job and lifestyle have caused me to detach from a significant chunk of society. I've never used Snap or their platform. I don't even really know what the benefit of their service. I am curious if I'm in the minority or if there's lots of developers like me who aren't able to comprehend these valuations.
I feel the same way. Though I do have to remember there's a big world beyond me. John Deere has $65 billion EV. I've never use one of their products.
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Well no, it depends on what you are waiting on. Some of the worst horror stories are from people that exercised their options and then waited a year to sell the stock to qualify for long term capital gains. Then the stock subsequently crashed so they owed a massive AMT tax for the difference between strike price and price on exercise and got almost nothing from the actual stock sale.
Better to have a huge AMT tax bill than a huge AMT tax bill and a $2000/month Lamborghini payment.