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Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

paulgraham.com

331–340 of 655 posts

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#331
post #232
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe interview them before hiring? :)

The problem is that it's extremely difficult to identify whether someone will excel at a job just through an interview. Even if someone really impresses everyone during the interview phase, it's totally possible that once they get hired they'll hate whatever you have them do and just do a mediocre job at it.

I'd go so far as to say the CEO mentioned in the story with their 70 "great" programmers who would hire another 30 "great" programmers...

A. Doesn't really have 70 "great" programmers, certainly not 100% of their team. I just don't believe that.

B. Actually needs 100 "great" programmers, and none that are just "good", in order to succeed fabulously.

C. That the CEO in question could accurately and consistently identify greatness in advance of hiring.

Sorry, it's just not a believable situation.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#332
Let's put an exemple of what PG is saying: Ellon Musk

Ellon Musk is from South Africa, he was not born in America. He has created an enormous amount of wealth in the US.

It is as simple as the US won't have self landing space rockets today without this man. Tesla would be bankrupt today, like Fisker.

It seems clear to me after reading comments here that Americans feel entitled to the position of world rulers they enjoy today. As if the wealth they enjoy as hegemonic power was generated in America and not all around the world.

Do you believe your salary is American generated? It is not. You print dollars that the world needs to use because it they don't sanctions are raised to them, or the US just invades them.

But as PG is saying, the world using the dollar as world reserve could change overnight.

You take your privileges for granted.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#333

Hm, an article from pg I don't really agree with (even if I am benefiting from EU's open labor market). There are plenty of 'exceptional' programmers out there with not exceptional salaries. Anybody is free to hire one. There are a couple of problems though: - they're hard to identify - they might be exceptional in one situation and mediocre in another situation. The fact you are doing great at company X and task Y d…

I agree with you; your second point is a good one. It's easier to increase the size of the pool rather than figure out how to better select within the current pool size; and if your concern is truly just getting "the best", it's cheaper to go abroad than to "steal" proven talent from competitors. If companies were willing to pay their top engineering talent anywhere close to C-level salaries, they would have no probl…

Think of it from the perspective of the countries great engineers emigrate from. They lose the potential for their own economic growth and prosperity, and send their best to be shackled to a company in the US where they need to keep a job or be deported. It is possible, but very hard, to be entrepreneurial in that environment.

But that is an essay and a half of nonsense to get into, about why they need to immigrate in the first place in such large numbers. In the same way monopolies are not healthy in any industry, having all the "great programmers" in the bay area would, I feel, stunt the potential of the industry by creating an insular monoculture.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drive down the wages of your most talented citizens and yes, you hurt the entire country.

So just to be clear, if we have more Doctors & Lawyers, so their wages decrease, and the cost of receiving medical care or getting legal help goes down, this would be bad for everyone?

Yes. Then your most talented citizens will go into other work and the quality provided will go down.

This is really quite simple. If there's ways for the most talented to make more money, that's where they're going. The most talented aren't locked into any particular career.

Sure, there will be exceptions, but the overall trend will be undeniable.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#335
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you understand that the world is not that simple? The only artificial shortage in play, is created by those self same companies - or unemployment in the US particularly among 40+ programmers would be 0%. If you care about the long term future of the human race you would be fighting both ageism and indentured servitude.

If you know of any great 40+ programmers please send them my way. I think you are ascribing a conspiracy with something that can be much more easily explained. 40+ y/o programmers first started learning programming 20+ years ago when programming was more low level in general. Furthermore their skills were honed on broken processes and outdated technology. And, if a programmer has been in the industry for 20+ years an…

40+ y/o programmers first started learning programming 20+ years ago when programming was more low level in general. Furthermore their skills were honed on broken processes and outdated technology

When you have been around technology for a little while you will see that the changes over time are superficial. There's actually not much you can do with a fancy Angular app now, that you couldn't do with an IBM 3270 terminal 40 years ago. You have a form to enter records into a database, or a report to extract that data in a nicely formatted way. Or Facebook, or Amazon, or whatever, to an experienced programmer these are just forms and reports. They differ from earlier apps only in the most trivial ways, the engineering under them hasn't changed. These old guys built things like banking systems, airline booking systems, that have been running for decades, and will be running for decades more. They know 100x more than any "scrum master" or whatever is in fashion now.

Sadly attitudes like you demonstrate, are common. Hence, rampant ageism and the drive to hire cheap 20-somethings.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#336
post #313
post #273

It's kind of weird to see the same discussion being repeated over and over again, with people talking over each others with the same point, again over and over. How about this instead, let's say I'm Patio11 and I want to go to the US, how do I do that? I personally consider Patrick to be the top 1% in what he is doing. And from what I've seen in on of HN's thread last week, a lot of people are aspiring to be the same…

patio11 is very much American, and could easily move to the US if he wanted to. Actually, now he can't because he's married to a foreign citizen, and the United States puts those people through all kinds of hassle and lengthly waits even if they are married to someone from the US.

I know patio11 is American, that wasn't the point.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#337
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure that already exists in the form of an O-1 visa. However I doubt the vast majority of programmers who get an H1B come close to meeting the standards for an O-1 visa. So yeah, if you are a really great programmer and the rest of the world knows this, then any employer in the US can help you get an O-1 visa based off of that. If your programming prowess isn't well demonstrated, then yeah, you have to go…

No it isn't. For great programmers, the O-1 visa is basically a hack that we use to get in the US. It was not intended to be used that way for programmer (you can note that the criteria fits more for profile of a reasonable successful working in entertainment industry, athlete etc.) You will need to be something like a top 1% programmers, working on things that are semi-public to qualify for the O-1, but any decent (…

If the O-1 is already admitting the top 1%, then we're already closing in on solving the ostensible problem.

At least inside an order of magnitude (1/5) at a naive guess, but probably much closer, in fact, if we run with two assumptions this piece rests on:

(a) The small top portion of a given talent pool have exceptional intrinsic abilities that give them a power-relation advantages over the rest of the pool when it comes to productive enterprise.

(b) Taking a small highest portion of a very large talent pool is going to give you the largest source of power-law productive talent.

If (a) is true, one would assume the top 1% of external programmers is going to be as much better than the next 5% as the top 20% is than the next 80%.

If (b) is true and we're already looking at the worldwide market, the top 1% is already a huge boost to the pool, almost certainly bigger than the number of open jobs on the market (if 5% of the top 1% of the world's smartest are programmers, then that's a number bigger than the ~4 million unfilled positions of any kind in the US). The top 5% is redundant.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#338
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've done exactly what you've suggested (and I would be confident enough to say I've done it successfully). However, two flaws with your suggestions: time and risk. Increasing the search space of people eliminates/reduces both of these.

How much time and risk is doing it this way worth? I will argue that the presented approach is the "right thing" (reap what you sow) and increasing the search space is the "wrong thing" (why should US companies get more than their 5% of programming talent?). I don't want US companies to have more talent than the US population can produce. I actually consider their requests stealing. It's not theirs to take. If they c…

You touch on why I don't like increased immigration, which is the stealing aspect. The problem is you take prospective entrepreneurs and great developers from other nations and slave them to US companies at threat of deportation. It is hard to be anything but a wage slave in that environment, which is exactly what companies want, and while the outside developers might have a grass is greener effect going on, is really not in their best interests. There are a lot of places to go if your home country is shit, and you can make a much better deal than an h1b.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#339
post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a dev manager at a prominent employer of software engineers and I did a search for my company at your link. I can't speak for other employers, but it appears that salaries for H1-Bs are ~25% lower than what I know Americans to be making at those same job titles. Half is almost certainly an exaggeration, but to deny that there's an H1-B discount is equally disingenuous. On the topic of the essay, I worry that Paul…

> If Paul can figure out a way to filter in the great developers while filtering out those that are only coming to make money Perhaps the ones that just want to work hard and make other people money, rather than aspire to money of their own could get a great big "I'M A SUCKER" stamp on their foreheads? Here's patio11 on salary negotiation: http://www.kalzumeus.com/2012/01/23/salary-negotiation/ - should that desire t…

I WILL SELL THE STAMP!

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you touched at the end is part of a bigger problem, I think - people who write something as inconsequential as a shopping website, or Yet Another Chat App, are not worth $150,000/year. Maybe one out of one-hundred of those folks could use their talent on something that demands a wage like that outside of the absurdity that is the Bay Area. I don't feel the talent pool will be diluted so much as your run-of-the-m…

Yes. Over 100,000 H1-B's are coming over every year. This keeps discussing exceptional programmers. You mean we need more than 100,000 exceptional programmers coming over every year? The reality is that the idea that even 10,000 of these people are exceptional programmers is a laugh. Every year 100,000 H1-Bs can come in. To believe this article, we'd have to pretend that we have a big wall up preventing these dozens…

So the problem isn't the immigration restriction, it's the lack of screening. Using PG's logic, all of those 100,000 should be 'exceptional' or else we're wasting tens of thousands of visa slots that should be going to the 'exceptional.' And how is 'exceptional' determined? We should let everyone in with the hope that some percentage happens to be exceptional? What about the non exceptional? What would that do to the overall quality of coding if you 'dump' 95,000 unexceptional programmers with the intent of harvesting 5,000 exceptional ones. Is it fair to suggest that the Infosys recruiters aren't hiring 'exceptional' but lower cost? I get recruiter emails all the time; several per day, yet never once have I received an email from Accenture, Infosys or any similar company known for hiring lots or foreign workers. So interesting that their shortage obviously isn't such that they'd resort to bugging me. Of course, maybe my years of experience and companies I worked for would indicate that that I would not be as cheap as the thousands they bring over from India. Nor would I put up with being locked into a position as an effective indentured servant. So many it isn't that there's a shortage of engineers but a shortage of ones that are willing to work under conditions common to those who desire to import more labor. Facebook doesn't necessarily want to hire more imported devs, but an increase of supply would allow them to have a larger talent pool at a lower cost. Of course, this discussion is a bit old school..

With remote working, geography is somewhat irrelevant. Perhaps instead if changing immigration instead PG promoted companies embracing a remote culture -- then you could have the best of the best with minimal beareaucratic entanglements. After all, given that, according to PG, it's about 'exceptional' talent, working remotely shouldn't require the same level of management overhead as would a lower quality dev 'sweatshop.' However the fact that isn't even being discussed makes one believe that this isn't about finding 'exceptional' talent as much as it's about lowering the scarcity of developers willing to work for lower wages than they might have received otherwise.

Under the PG logic, we ought to simply open the floodgates to all people, because inevitably from the multitudes there's bound to be a few geniuses. But, does the cost of those geniuses outweigh the costs to everyone else? Should we strip mine the Rocky Mountains to find an ounce of gold?

I don't know the answer to the question and I am not advocating either way, however when a company like Facebook begins asking for something, I question the motives -- I don't think Facebook has a talent shortage at all, they have a desire to pay less for their inputs. Which is a fair desire; however we shouldn't just blindly allow policy decisions to happen just because some tech 'leaders' ask for it. It is and always has been about the bottom line.

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