Live data from Hacker News

“Next-token predictor” is the wrong mental model for LLMs

gmcgoldr.github.io

331–333 of 333 posts

Re: “Next-token predictor” is the wrong mental model for LLMs

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for providing an arxiv! An aside, I finally do appreciate single column format now, makes it easier to convert to epub.

When you are done with the section on RLVR, consider whether the model is predicting tokens, or making moves. There is a reason the word "policy" is used in RL.

Would still say it’s a token predictor, a fancy one though. I suppose we can agree to disagree.

Re: “Next-token predictor” is the wrong mental model for LLMs

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey man, I'm not crazy. Yes, the goal is to maximize the cumulative reward like you say but to do that a policy (agent) has to take the actions that maximize its expected return in each time step. That's what the discount factor applies to, the expected return. To maximize its expected return it has to predict that taking action α in state s in time step t will produce state s' and reward r in time step t+1. Which bt…

Your initial comment says "reward". Reward and return are not the same thing. The policy is choosing the moves based off of returns at the next state, not the immediate rewards. One choice might have reward 0 and expected return 100. Another reward 10 and expected return 20. And, the expected return from a state is often estimated rather than an explicit trajectory run out all the way. A value function can estimate e…

[deleted]

Re: “Next-token predictor” is the wrong mental model for LLMs

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey man, I'm not crazy. Yes, the goal is to maximize the cumulative reward like you say but to do that a policy (agent) has to take the actions that maximize its expected return in each time step. That's what the discount factor applies to, the expected return. To maximize its expected return it has to predict that taking action α in state s in time step t will produce state s' and reward r in time step t+1. Which bt…

Your initial comment says "reward". Reward and return are not the same thing. The policy is choosing the moves based off of returns at the next state, not the immediate rewards. One choice might have reward 0 and expected return 100. Another reward 10 and expected return 20. And, the expected return from a state is often estimated rather than an explicit trajectory run out all the way. A value function can estimate e…

You're right of course and my bad but in my defense even Sutton & Barto lapse into using the term interchangeably (I caught them at it while reading the book earlier).

>> And, the expected return from a state is often estimated rather than an explicit trajectory run out all the way. A value function can estimate expected return without explicitly predicting the future states or individual rewards that make up that return.

I think rather that's the job of the value function, to inform the policy of the, well, value of a state, or state-action pair. Somehow the policy needs to know what a good action is to take in the current state, or what is the best action to take. And of course it doesn't have to run the entire episode before it does that: but that's what I mean that it predicts the next move and not just the outcome of the entire game.

Post reply on HN