To respond to your edit: The first document is a report on the economic upside of further investment + regulation on climate. It has nothing to do with downside risk of inaction. To the extent it mentions "whether things will get better than now or not," it certainly does not argue things will just be better.
> However, current efforts are not keeping pace with rising risks. The world remains on an upwards emissions trajectory, and climate action is losing momentum as countries face a range of competing geopolitical, financial and economic challenges that slow its pace and scale. Without further action climate risks will intensify, and rising disasters, economic instability and financial system vulnerabilities will threaten long-term growth and development.
> Actual benefits [of deeper investment + regulation] could be even greater, as uncertain current estimates do not fully account for the economic and social consequences of the increased likelihood of crossing tipping points, such as melting ice sheets or reversing circulation patterns in the ocean.
So yes you're reading a publication explicitly written, labeled, and marketed as a positive economic case for deeper investment and regulation, and then saying "see it's just saying things will get better if we invest/regulate, it doesn't talk about downside risk!" But it explicitly says it's not looking at downside risk.
Here's the same credible organization in a 2022 report on the downside risks: (https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/climate-tipping-points_...)
> This report reviews evidence that overshooting 1.5°C may push the earth over several tipping points, leading to irreversible and severe changes in the climate system. If triggered, tipping point impacts will rapidly cascade through socio-economic and ecological systems, leading to severe effects on human and natural systems and imposing important challenges for human adaptation
> Based on the most recent science and consultations with renowned experts, this report argues that it is no longer appropriate to consider the risk of crossing tipping points as low-probability.
Note that inversely, this report does not make a positive argument for the economic growth potential of intervention, because it's a report on downside risk.