331–340 of 370 posts
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A better way to frame this might be that Apple tried VR and quickly realized the market wasn't there and moved on. Compare that to Meta, who went all-in (so much so that they changed the company name) despite apparent overwhelming user apathy toward the product. The estimates I've seen say that Apple spent ~$10b on their VR program, whereas Meta is in for about $80b.
you saying Vision Pro is dead?
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> There is a reason this man doesn't heavily short the same companies he criticizes yes, because in order to take a short position you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop, which is different from predicting that at some point it will
> you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop Not true.
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He doesn't like or believe in the economics of the frontier labs and then works backwards from that, which takes him to some very strange places.
And I'm sure Galileo didn't like the idea of geocentrinism either for irrational reasons. Seriously, good enough telescopes havent been made yet and he's all confident etc. etc. But Galileo was still had a useful framework for his criticisms despite all of his faults. ---------- I see Ed Zitron in virtually the same spot. Especially now that the SPVs thing is publicly confirmed by 3rd parties. I agree he made a bunch…
But I have direct subject-matter expertise with software engineering, and too much of what Zitron has to say about AI-mediated software development is clownish. Not wrong (everyone's wrong all the time), but literally risible. I can't get past that.
My thing is: there are smart people doing analysis with skeptical takes. Zitron gets cited because he has a business engine going revving people up and arming AI skeptics with (what I believe to be) Gish Gallup takes. It's profitable for him, and I don't begrudge him, but when people I otherwise respect cite Zitron it makes me sad: Zitron is going to make fools out of them. Cite better skeptics!
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What’s wrong here ? You push the router , you keep same subscription price , customers are as happy or even more happy because router will make process faster, the costs will go down . The market size will increase several times . If you have properties of the market where your costs will go down , the size of the market will increase and you are top contender. How is that a bubble or a bad market ? Sure you have ris…
The key is your comment about rotating between 4-5 different vendors to control costs. That will naturally rotate you _away_ from vendors who expand margin, and _toward_ those who use the same capability to undercut the margin expanders.
The only real problem to them they killing the market they have most money off. Software . But ai already in a good spot to displace Microsoft office after that other industries , finance , lawyers , medicine etc
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They've been investing in NPUs for a long long time. Since the first iPad Pro at least (2018). Apple Silicon is a natural fit for tensor/matrix operations due to unified memory, so if anything them going "all in" on that has been a nice side effect.
> Apple Silicon is a natural fit for tensor/matrix operations due to unified memory, This is a common misconception. This is NOT true: memory designed for CPU performs horribly for GPU tasks. Mac/Strix Halo/NVIDIA Spark are performing horribly compared to a desktop video card with GDDR. I spent quite a few weekends optimizing ROCM kernels for strix halo, i WISH I had GDDR instead of high-frequency CPU RAM; the bandwi…
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Agents will explode the use 100x or more , so even if you push into your router mix models that dynamically do inference that is 100x 10x 5x cheaper , they are still fine. In fact spacex story tells you next : investments in infrastructure is the best investment. If OpenAI or anthropic have committed infra in the worst case scenario they can re-sell it with margin . The only way it will not payout suddenly we wake up…
> Agents will explode the use 100x or more That _could_ happen, but very likely not in a short enough timeline to save them. > In fact spacex story tells you next : investments in infrastructure is the best investment ROFLMAO. How's the stock doing?
Spacex > I am talking about their revenue , and they did resell their gpus with margin when their model clearly underperformed .
Stocks … two weeks ago it was amazing now it’s slightly under water , who knows what that be in 6 months. It does not matter for this conversation.
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Others are betting on AGI/almost AGI like system. It's a gamble because no one actually knows whether or when it will be possible to create it. But if their bets pay off, they could outcompete Apple. Basically, other companies are going all in on the next card, while Apple is holding back and waiting to see which cards are dealt.
IMO AGI is a bold-faced lie, backed by the age-old American fantasy of free labor. The whole concept seems quite ugly to me.
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> I will never understand the decision-making process that led to "Let's build an awesome VR headset that can't do gaming". FOMO, someone else being successful in VR (and now in glasses) is a nightmare scenario for Apple because it's not their platform . They've got a lot to fear from someone else owning the platform, having written the playbook on how that platform would be controlled and exploited at everyone else'…
In what world has meta been successful with VR or glasses?
Meta are selling millions of glasses and growing so it's looking like a hit.
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And I'm sure Galileo didn't like the idea of geocentrinism either for irrational reasons. Seriously, good enough telescopes havent been made yet and he's all confident etc. etc. But Galileo was still had a useful framework for his criticisms despite all of his faults. ---------- I see Ed Zitron in virtually the same spot. Especially now that the SPVs thing is publicly confirmed by 3rd parties. I agree he made a bunch…
I don't have a direct opinion about Zitron's economic takes. I don't have a stake in that argument, I don't do financial planning for inference providers or training, I'm open to a variety of arguments, in either direction, about viability. But I have direct subject-matter expertise with software engineering, and too much of what Zitron has to say about AI-mediated software development is clownish . Not wrong (everyo…