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Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

epoch.ai

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Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#331

Post by HDBaseT »

dominotw wrote: post #282
brandensilva wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is about to flood the market and prove this notion wrong. If there is demand they want to meet it with supply. But to your point, that is exactly how American companies like to play now. No one is stopping them from screwing over the consumer. I have a Micron near me and they are building another chip facility but we are years away still so I suspect China will beat them to the punch.

man i keep thinking. why cant india get into stuff like this. Do their own manhattan project to build factories and tech for this and immigrate experts with high salaries.

[flagged]

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#332

Post by HDBaseT »

roxolotl wrote: post #188
overfeed wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sure looks like Sam Altman's masterful gambit to corner the memory market has had unforeseen consequences.

Is any of this actually unforeseen? Buying the vast majority of the world’s supply of something does have mostly predictable consequences.

Yes, but that's not what they are insinuating.

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#333

Post by Viacol »

itopaloglu83 wrote: post #210
radialstub wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The memory makers will not expand demand drastically. It is in the nature of their business to keep the market under-supplied, otherwise the following oversupply will kill them. Instead, supply is just rerouted from less profitable segments such as mobile and personal computing.

Reminds me of how Samsung is giving out $340,000 per person bonuses. Shows you how much of a stronghold they have in market.

I think you're probably referring to SK Hynix. Samsung's situation was more about dealing with the fallout from the labor strike.

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#334

Post by HDBaseT »

epolanski wrote: post #285
jmalicki wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For lifespan, AWS is still running a ton of T4 GPUs from 2018, that power a lot of computer vision models. A ton of these will have a long life, not all ML is about frontier LLMs.

How can it be economically viable to still run them? You can get 100x the output with the same energy use.

There has not been a "100x" in efficiency in the past 6-8 years.

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#335

Post by HDBaseT »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #195
dawnerd wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep mad about that too. I was about half way through upgrading my 45 drives server when they started to go up.

Brutal. I only did a 6 drive bay and I was angry lol

He is talking about the company '45Drives', which produce solutions which aren't only 45 drive bays.

[0] - https://www.45drives.com

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#336

Post by byzantinegene »

kristopolous wrote: post #190
ec109685 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supply and demand always balance out. There is no way manufacturers aren’t going to compete away these inflated margins, as long as they feel like this demand is sustainable.

You know there's other strategies? Companies can be more clever than naively undercutting each other... Memory in particular ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal The entry-cost to getting into memory is on the order of $billions and years - you can do just about anything...

not if china gets into the picture

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#338

Post by HDBaseT »

Gigachad wrote: post #318
johnvanommen wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this will definitely renew interest in Stadia type products.

Why? Those servers still have to pay the same price for components plus a markup for the service. In theory you can serve more gamers per GPU, but these GPUs have to be physically located in your city to have a usable latency, and that means you'll have issues with peak utilization being most users gaming at the same time of day. I just don't see the cost savings of sharing a GPU overcoming the extra expense + profit…

The GPUs do not have to be "psychically located in your city" to have usable latency.

Of course, less latency is always better although running a traceroute between my IP and major city (Sydney) from 1,500 km equates to about 11ms latency with optimal routing. (Real life test, traceroute via an ISP Looking Glass).

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#340

Post by byzantinegene »

proee wrote: post #204

Memory manufactures sit on a war chest of IP. So even if someone has excess fab capacity and wants to get into memory manufacturing, they will have to fight an uphill battle of about a zillion patents. Most memory companies have backroom deals to exchange tit-for-tat patent violations against each other. Not sure how a new memory manufacture comes into being without getting sunk from licensing costs?

china?
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