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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#331

Post by MostlyStable »

watwut wrote: post #247
MostlyStable wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm really curious how quickly we would have huge numbers of L5 SDV if we societally accepted ~equal rates of injury and death, both of passengers and pedestrians. I want to be very clear, I'm not advocating for this (and even if I was, I haven't the faintest idea how one would go about getting society more broadly to go along), but part of me thinks that the primary hold up isn't actually capacity but instead standa…

Standards are not higher for self driving cars. Musk lied a lit about capability and safety of self driving, creating impression that it is safer then humans driving. So far, they are not.

I have no idea where you get this impression. Tesla is no where close to the majority (or even plurality) of fully autonomous self driving miles. Waymo is dramatically safer (less injuries, not quite enough data yet to be certain about fatalities, but they are lower than average, we just can't yet claim statistical significance) than human drivers.

I haven't seen good stats on Tesla (they are less transparent than Waymo), but it would shock me if they weren't also at least slightly safer than the average human driver. Human drivers are really bad at driving.

But even if Tesla isn't safer, taken as a whole, the self driving industry as it currently exists still probably is, purely because it's mostly Waymo, and Waymo is dramatically safer.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#332

Post by evdubs »

mghackerlady wrote: post #117
bluGill wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well. Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

> would be the worst geopolitical move of the century

From a political perspective, perhaps.

> doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do

From a military perspective, taking Taiwan by force would allow China to, "threaten the sea lines of communication and to strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent in ways that it is unlikely to otherwise be able to do." Taiwan would give China access to the Philippine Sea. https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#333

Post by zozbot234 »

packetlost wrote: post #329
mariopt wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, many people don't know GLM 5.1 and Kimi 2.6, really on par with frontier models. There's also Minimax 2.7, DeepSeek 4, Qwen, Xiaomi 2.5 Pro, etc. China is leading in open source frontier models, so I don't really see how the US wins this one. At some point, companies and people will start running their own models in the cloud and locally, Chinese models will be everywhere.

Nah, I model hop constantly as I work with serving GLM and Kimi models and they're not nearly as good as Opus 4.5+ and GPT 5.2+ and it's not particularly close. They're good by standards set a generation or two ago, but they're really not competitive with where the frontier models are at now.

They compete with "mini" or "nano" model classes quite well given the price of inference. You'd need to "model hop" anyway, using Opus for everything is quite wasteful.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#334

Post by lukan »

jasondigitized wrote: post #278
Ekaros wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.

The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.

More like a draw it seems.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#335

Post by mariopt »

packetlost wrote: post #329
mariopt wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, many people don't know GLM 5.1 and Kimi 2.6, really on par with frontier models. There's also Minimax 2.7, DeepSeek 4, Qwen, Xiaomi 2.5 Pro, etc. China is leading in open source frontier models, so I don't really see how the US wins this one. At some point, companies and people will start running their own models in the cloud and locally, Chinese models will be everywhere.

Nah, I model hop constantly as I work with serving GLM and Kimi models and they're not nearly as good as Opus 4.5+ and GPT 5.2+ and it's not particularly close. They're good by standards set a generation or two ago, but they're really not competitive with where the frontier models are at now.

Guess it really depends on what you use them for. I've been able to built whole apps with them, not slop. Kimi is quite good at design, for 3D, I noticed Gemini 3.1 is excellent for basic to medium use cases.

I've tried both Opus and GPT 5.4, they also hallucinate just like the rest at a much higher cost.

The more you use a model overtime, the better you become with it. It's really hard to measure, my main metric lately has been tokens per second/time to complete task.

At this point I've the feeling frontier models are optimizing for benchmarks and one shot prompts.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#336

Post by einpoklum »

CMay wrote: post #313
watwut wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe seems both better capable of sustaining democracy, privacy and rule of law. USA is on verge of being irreversibly done for in all three areas. It can happen in Europe too, but the full fall is not that close.

Privacy is a concern everywhere, but the center of gravity of the issue moves further up or down the chain depending on the country. The structure of the US makes it basically the single most secure democracy anywhere right now or in history. No country in Europe or Europe as a whole is even competitive by comparison. The main issue we're facing is that we are by far the primary target for foreign funded activism and…

> the single most secure democracy anywhere right now or in history.

So secure, in fact, that it has secured itself even against the influence of its own citizens.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#337

Post by throwaway27448 »

ericmay wrote: post #301
throwaway27448 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporate america is the past . Momentum is carrying capital out of the country. Pay attention to rate of change.

What source are you using for your claim that capital is flowing out of the country? I'm curious to read more about it.

I don't think that's a particularly bold claim after thirty straight years of moving supply chains overseas. Capital is, inherently, the means of production. The world where we could compete is gone.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#338

Post by nodja »

irishcoffee wrote: post #302
nba456_ wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. When someone says their football team is winning in the first half, do you say, "Umm, no, they're leading, not winning!"

I find it very strange that the GP felt the need to correct a difference between leading and winning. If you're at the front of the pack in a race, you are both leading the pack and winning the race. If your team has more points than the other team, you are both leading the contest and winning the contest. It is a distinction without a difference. The elephant in the room, and where the analogy breaks down, is that a…

GP here, leading and winning are different things in the race context/metaphor.

In foot/cycling races there's often a pack leader, that leader is often not the winner of the race, all they're doing is taking the brunt of the air resistance while everyone else slipstreams behind. For a casual observer it seems that the pack leader will win, but everyone knows that it's gonna be someone that paced themselves that's going to overtake the first spot at the tail end of the race.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#339

Post by CMay »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #289
CMay wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not xenophobic. That is ridiculous. Any time you say stuff like that, you discredit the things you say that actually make sense. I'm with you on the privacy aspect, but there are multiple dimensions of that which you're ignoring. I'd much prefer taking my chances in the US than in the EU, where they are constantly trying to push companies to weaken privacy.

Europe has way stronger data protection laws than the US. EU has GDPR, strict requirements, large fines. US only has a couple states protecting personal data, with HIPAA for health data, and that's it. We require you to unlock all your devices within 100 miles of a border (inland) so we can look at all your data. Of course our intelligence service also hoovers up the metadata of US citizens in contact with anyone ove…

The US accepts immigrants from 200+ countries around the world with the top 5 being Mexico, Cuba, India, Dominican Republic and China. None of that has changed under Trump.

I think you got lost in the rhetoric somewhere.

Tariffs are just the US adjusting to reality which other countries are slow to do. Free trade died all on its own, because the pandemic showed that critical industries were hollowed out by free trade in a way that could be appreciated from a national security perspective. That situation was favoring China too much, so we need to unwind that some.

Tariffs already existed in many countries in practice, so it's not like the US reinvented modern tariffs.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#340

Post by nodja »

nba456_ wrote: post #95
nodja wrote: post #48

No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. What's the point of leading the race for 90% of it, if they're gonna slip on their own sweat and fall down by the end? In non metaphorical terms, what's the point of spending billions of dollars rushing to get the best AI tech at all costs, when the competition can distil your progress and catch up in 6-12 months while only spending 1% of what you spent. E…

> No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. When someone says their football team is winning in the first half, do you say, "Umm, no, they're leading, not winning!"

When a cyclist is leading a pack and pushing themselves against the air resistance for half the race, do you expect that cyclist to win, or one of the ones behind that's been taking it easy in the slipstream?

It's a race metaphor not a football metaphor.

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