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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#331

Post by [deleted] »

jmyeet wrote: post #329
bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

I don't know where this idea that OPEC is toothless came from but it's objectively incorrect. Counter example: OPEC was the single largest factor in the inflation shock of 2020-2022. And nobody talks about it. In March 2020 at the start of the pandemic, it looked like the world economy would come to a standstill. Oil futures went into extreme contango, briefly going negative as nobody was taking delivery. So in April…

[deleted]

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#332

Post by fulafel »

cmiles8 wrote: post #132

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy. This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dyna…

This is horrible from POV of mitigating the climate catastrophe and the global death toll. We (as in humanity) are really late in ramping down fossils production and use.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#333

Post by jmyeet »

cmiles8 wrote: post #132

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy. This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dyna…

The US isn't insulated from global oil supply shocks because crude oil and refined petroleum products are traded on global markets and natural gas is somewhat traded on global markets (there are limits to LNG exports).

So yes the US could limit or ban exports. Many countries (including China) have done this in a kind of energy nationalism, but that hangs out allies to dry in a way that would make the US deeply uncomfortable. It would threaten European energy security. It would come at the cost of Latin American exports. So there's a cost to pay.

And more to the point, no US government regardless of party is going to hurt corporate profits by limiting exports. Biden could've done it in 2021-2022 and didn't. And Trump certainly won't. As one example, a big release from the SPR was on an oil-for-oil basis. Rather than cash ii on high prices, it's just a massive gift to oil companies who have to repay the oil (and then some) at some unspecified future point when oil will be cheaper. That's billions the US could've added to government coffers.

I do agree there is a power shift going on but not because of US energy independence. No, it's because the US cannot militarily protect GCC countries and cannot force open the Strait of Hormuz or guarantee global shipping, which has essentially been a US guarantee since 1945.

I do think this administration does want to crack OPEC but that's likely to be of massive benefit to China without China having to do anything.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#334

Post by dlubarov »

cma wrote: post #304
nkmnz wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If they join a religion that isn't on the state approved list, they can't get married there and hard or extra expensive to get buried. There are some limits on religious freedom.

They can just get married abroad. There are even online ceremonies now.

A decent number of Israeli Jews have to do that as well, since Israel recognizes Jewish marriages only under orthodox rabbis. Some Israeli Jews are not even considered Jews under strict orthodox rules.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#335

Post by WorldPeas »

tootie wrote: post #189
cmiles8 wrote: post #132

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy. This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dyna…

Global pricing affects all fossil fuels and always will. Energy independence will remain a fantasy until we are fully on renewables. Which is entirely within reach and requires fighting zero wars.

...and up to that point, first world countries should not be complaining about developing nations using coal. It's a lot more shock resistant than diesel and natural gas, which is especially important for those that are so much more sensitive to inflation. From what I've seen coal, solar (hydro too, but that's land-dependent) and micromobility are save harbors. Not much they can do about the fertilizer shortfalls though.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#337

Post by energy123 »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #258
dmix wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE's major issue with Saudis is their quiet support for Islamism as well. They know countries like Iran exploit for it like a wildcard which always backfires and destabilizes the region, which is bad for business.

> UAE's major issue with Saudis is their quiet support for Islamism as well. What is the meaning of "Islamism" here? GCC is something like 98-99% Muslim by native population. Also, Saudi Arabia is the home of the two most important masjids in the Islamic world.

ISIS and Iran are pan-Islamist, which is the strain of Islamism that the UAE and Saudi Arabia fear most. Pan-Islamists don't respect national boarders, democracy, nationalism or monarchies.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#338

Post by SequoiaHope »

brightball wrote: post #312
api wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

> As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. IMO economics always wins. You're never going to see an all-cooperate scenario. You will see an all-compete scenario, so constantly reducing…

Keep in mind if you are in the US, your prices have been artificially raised by tariffs. 30% starting in 2018, then declining each year for a while to 15%. Those tariffs recently expired but when I searched I saw this article about new tariffs on certain countries solar as high as 123%.

All this to say, you calling a local company and getting quotes captures your price but that’s not quite the same as the global price.

https://esgnews.com/us-imposes-solar-tariffs-up-to-123-on-im...

EDIT: I was wrong - tariffs on eg Chinese made solar panels are more like 65% right now - there’s multiple tariffs. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/02/04/u-s-raises-solar-poly...

Point being the US government is making them expensive for US consumers but that’s not true for global markets where they want to have energy independence. Solar is in fact very cheap these days.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#339

Post by jmyeet »

api wrote: post #221
bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

Renewables (particularly solar) already are cheaper [1].

It's political will not economics that keeps us addicted to fossil fuels. Nobody gets rich from solar panels. You build them. They produce power. Oil wells like any mine are huge wealth concentrators. That's the real problem.

If anything, a bunch of countries (particularly those who are net oil importers) are re-evaluting their energy dependence given that the compact that the US will guarantee maritime transport has essentially been broken.

[1]: https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-el...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#340

Post by nradov »

Teever wrote: post #303
stickfigure wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If gasoline is more expensive, customers will demand more efficient vehicles. We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. I'm old enough to remember when Japanese small cars practically took over the market in the 70s and 80s due to gas price shocks. It can happen again.

> We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. But we are. I don't want to turn this into a political slap fight but it became apparent to me the extent in which people are swayed by advertising when I read an article that talked about how one party in the US was concerned that the other was going to win an important seat becase the other party had done a recent spending surge on ads in last few days befo…

Nah, it's not real. Your claim isn't supported by the data. Political advertising can help a bit at the margins but in the 2016 Presidential election the losing campaign spent about twice as much on advertising as the winner. Very few voters were swayed by last second radio ads.

(I would support a Constitutional amendment to restrict campaign contributions and effectively overturn the Citizens United v. FEC decision.)

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